Whole genome sequencing provides better delineation of transmission clusters in Mycobacterium tuberculosis than traditional methods. However, its ability to reveal individual transmission links within clusters is limited. Here, we used a 2-step approach based on Bayesian transmission reconstruction to (1) identify likely index and missing cases, (2) determine risk factors associated with transmitters, and (3) estimate when transmission happened. We developed our transmission reconstruction method using genomic and epidemiological data from a population-based study from Valencia Region, Spain. Tuberculosis (TB) incidence during the study period was 8.4 cases per 100,000 people. While the study is ongoing, the sampling frame for this work includes notified TB cases between 1 January 2014 and 31 December 2016. We identified a total of 21 transmission clusters that fulfilled the criteria for analysis. These contained a total of 117 individuals diagnosed with active TB (109 with epidemiological data). Demographic characteristics of the study population were as follows: 80/109 (73%) individuals were Spanish-born, 76/109 (70%) individuals were men, and the mean age was 42.51 years (SD 18.46). We found that 66/109 (61%) TB patients were sputum positive at diagnosis, and 10/109 (9%) were HIV positive. We used the data to reveal individual transmission links, and to identify index cases, missing cases, likely transmitters, and associated transmission risk factors. Our Bayesian inference approach suggests that at least 60% of index cases are likely misidentified by local public health. Our data also suggest that factors associated with likely transmitters are different to those of simply being in a transmission cluster, highlighting the importance of differentiating between these 2 phenomena. Our data suggest that type 2 diabetes mellitus is a risk factor associated with being a transmitter (odds ratio 0.19 [95% CI 0.02–1.10], p < 0.003). Finally, we used the most likely timing for transmission events to study when TB transmission occurred; we identified that 5/14 (35.7%) cases likely transmitted TB well before symptom onset, and these were largely sputum negative at diagnosis. Limited within-cluster diversity does not allow us to extrapolate our findings to the whole TB population in Valencia Region. In this study, we found that index cases are often misidentified, with downstream consequences for epidemiological investigations because likely transmitters can be missed. Our findings regarding inferred transmission timing suggest that TB transmission can occur before patient symptom onset, suggesting also that TB transmits during sub-clinical disease. This result has direct implications for diagnosing TB and reducing transmission. Overall, we show that a transition to individual-based genomic epidemiology will likely close some of the knowledge gaps in TB transmission and may redirect efforts towards cost-effective contact investigations for improved TB control.

Integrative multiomics data analysis provides a unique opportunity for the mechanistic understanding of colorectal cancer (CRC) in addition to the identification of potential novel therapeutic targets. In this study, we used public omics data sets to investigate potential associations between microbiome, metabolome, bulk transcriptomics and single cell RNA sequencing datasets. We identified multiple potential interactions, for example 5-aminovalerate interacting with Adlercreutzia; cholesteryl ester interacting with bacterial genera Staphylococcus, Blautia and Roseburia. Using public single cell and bulk RNA sequencing, we identified 17 overlapping genes involved in epithelial cell pathways, with particular significance of the oxidative phosphorylation pathway and the ACAT1 gene that indirectly regulates the esterification of cholesterol. These findings demonstrate that the integration of multiomics data sets from diverse populations can help us in untangling the colorectal cancer pathogenesis as well as postulate the disease pathology mechanisms and therapeutic targets.

Existing microbiome-based disease prediction relies on the ability of machine learning methods to differentiate disease from healthy subjects based on the observed taxa abundance across samples. Despite numerous microbes have been implicated as potential biomarkers, challenges remain due to not only the statistical nature of microbiome data but also the lack of understanding of microbial interactions which can be indicative of the disease. We propose CACONET (classification of Compositional-Aware COrrelation NETworks), a computational framework that learns to classify microbial correlation networks and extracts potential signature interactions, taking as input taxa relative abundance across samples and their health status. By using Bayesian compositional-aware correlation inference, a collection of posterior correlation networks can be drawn and used for graph-level classification, thus incorporating uncertainty in the estimates. CACONET then employs a deep learning approach for graph classification, achieving excellent performance metrics by exploiting the correlation structure. We test the framework on both simulated data and a large real-world dataset pertaining to microbiome samples of colorectal cancer (CRC) and healthy subjects, and identify potential network substructure characteristic of CRC microbiota. CACONET is customizable and can be adapted to further improve its utility. CACONET is available at https://github.com/yuanwxu/corr-net-classify. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Reconstructing who infected whom is a central challenge in analysing epidemiological data. Recently, advances in sequencing technology have led to increasing interest in Bayesian approaches to inferring who infected whom using genetic data from pathogens. The logic behind such approaches is that isolates that are nearly genetically identical are more likely to have been recently transmitted than those that are very different. A number of methods have been developed to perform this inference. However, testing their convergence, examining posterior sets of transmission trees and comparing methods’ performance are challenged by the fact that the object of inference—the transmission tree—is a complicated discrete structure. We introduce a metric on transmission trees to quantify distances between them. The metric can accommodate trees with unsampled individuals, and highlights differences in the source case and in the number of infections per infector. We illustrate its performance on simple simulated scenarios and on posterior transmission trees from a TB outbreak. We find that the metric reveals where the posterior is sensitive to the priors, and where collections of trees are composed of distinct clusters. We use the metric to define median trees summarising these clusters. Quantitative tools to compare transmission trees to each other will be required for assessing MCMC convergence, exploring posterior trees and benchmarking diverse methods as this field continues to mature.

IL-23R and IL-17A polymorphisms correlate with susceptibility of ankylosing spondylitis in a Southwest Chinese population IL-23R and IL-17A polymorphisms correlate with susceptibility of ankylosing spondylitis in a Southwest Chinese population

We present MBPert, a generic computational framework for inferring species interactions and predicting dynamics in time-evolving ecosystems from perturbation and time-series data. In this work, we contextualize the framework in microbial ecosystem modeling by coupling a modified generalized Lotka-Volterra formulation with machine learning optimization. Unlike traditional methods that rely on gradient matching, MBPert leverages numerical solutions of differential equations and iterative parameter estimation to robustly capture microbial dynamics. The framework is assessed within the context of two experimental scenarios: (i) paired before-and-after measurements under targeted perturbations, and (ii) longitudinal time-series data with time-dependent perturbations. Extensive simulation studies, benchmarking on standardized MTIST datasets, and application to Clostridium difficile infection in mice and repeated antibiotic perturbations of human gut micribiota, demonstrate that MBPert accurately recapitulates species interactions and predicts system dynamics. Our results highlight MBPert as a powerful and flexible tool for mechanistic insight into microbiota ecology, with broad potential applicability to other complex dynamical systems.