Animal populations have developed multiple strategies to deal with environmental change. Among them, the demographic buffering strategy consists in constraining the temporal variation of the vital rate(s) that most affect(s) the overall performance of the population. Tortoises are known to buffer their temporal variation in adult survival, which typically has the highest contribution to the population growth rate λ, at the expense of a high variability on reproductive rates, which contribute far less to λ. To identify the effects of projected increases in droughts in its natural habitat, we use field data collected across 15 locations of Testudo graeca in southeast Spain over a decade. We analyse the effects of environmental variables on reproduction rates. In addition, we couple the demographic and environmental data to parameterise an integral projection model to simulate the effects of different scenarios of drought recurrence on λ under different degrees of intensity in the survival–reproduction tradeoff. We find that droughts negatively affect the probability of laying eggs; however, the overall effects on λ under the current drought recurrence (one/decade) are negligible when survival is constant (independent of the reduction of reproduction by drought events) and when survival increased as a tradeoff with the reduction of reproduction rates, with a threshold to population viability at three or more droughts/decade. Additionally, we show that, although some species may buffer current environmental regimes by carefully orchestrating how their vital rates vary through time, a demographic buffering strategy is insufficient to ensure population viability in extreme regimes. Our findings support the hypothesis that the demographic buffering strategy has a limit of effectiveness when adverse conditions occur frequently. Our methodological approach provides a framework for ecologists to determine how effective the management of environmental drivers can be for demographically buffering populations, and which scenarios may not provide long‐term population persistence.

The Anthropocene is tightly associated with a drastic loss of species worldwide and the disappearance of their key ecosystem functions. The orders Testudines (turtles and tortoises) and Crocodilia (crocodiles, alligators, and gharials) contain numerous threatened, long-lived species for which the functional diversity and potential erosion by anthropogenic impacts remains unknown. Here, we examine 259 (69%) of the existing 375 species of Testudines and Crocodilia, quantifying their life history strategies (i.e., trade-offs in survival, development, and reproduction) from open-access data on demography, ancestry, and threats. We find that the loss of functional diversity in simulated extinction scenarios of threatened species is greater than expected by chance. Moreover, the effects of unsustainable local consumption, diseases, and pollution are associated with life history strategies. In contrast, climate change, habitat disturbance, and global trade affect species independent of their life history strategy. Importantly, the loss of functional diversity for threatened species by habitat degradation is twice that for all other threats. Our findings highlight the importance of conservation programmes focused on preserving the functional diversity of life history strategies jointly with the phylogenetic representativity of these highly threatened groups.

In the transition between Mediterranean forest and the arid subtropical shrublands of the southeastern Iberian Peninsula, humans have transformed habitat since ancient times. Understanding the role of the original mosaic landscapes in wildlife species and the effects of the current changes as pine forest plantations, performed even outside the forest ecological boundaries, are important conservation issues. We studied variation in the density of the endangered spur-thighed tortoise (Testudo graeca) in three areas that include the four most common land types within the species’ range (pine forests, natural shrubs, dryland crop fields, and abandoned crop fields). Tortoise densities were estimated using a two-stage modeling approach with line transect distance sampling. Densities in dryland crop fields, abandoned crop fields and natural shrubs were higher (>6 individuals/ha) than in pine forests (1.25 individuals/ha). We also found large variation in density in the pine forests. Recent pine plantations showed higher densities than mature pine forests where shrub and herbaceous cover was taller and thicker. We hypothesize that mature pine forest might constrain tortoise activity by acting as partial barriers to movements. This issue is relevant for management purposes given that large areas in the tortoise’s range have recently been converted to pine plantations.

Context: Land-use change is one of the main threats to biodiversity on the global scale. Legacy effects of historical land-use changes may affect population dynamics of long-lived species, but they are difficult to evaluate through observational studies alone. We present here an interdisciplinary modelling approach as an alternative to address this problem in landscape ecology. Objectives: Assess effects of agricultural abandonment and anthropisation on the population dynamics of long-lived species. Specifically, we evaluated: (a) how changes in movement patterns caused by land-use change might impact population dynamics; (b) time-lag responses of demographic variables in relation to land-use changes. Methods: We applied an individual-based and spatial-explicit simulation model of the spur-tighed tortoise (Testudo graeca), an endangered species, to sequences of real-world landscape changes representing agricultural abandonment and anthropisation at the local scale. We analysed different demographic variables and compared an “impact scenario” (i.e., historical land-use changes) with a “control scenario” (no land-use changes). Results: While agricultural abandonment did not lead to relevant changes in demographic variables, anthropisation negatively affected the reproductive rate, population density and the extinction probability with time-lag responses of 20, 30 and 130 years, respectively, and caused an extinction debt of 22%. Conclusions: We provide an understanding of how changes in animal movement driven by land-use changes can translate into lagged impacts on demography and, ultimately, on population viability. Implementation of proactive mitigation management are needed to promote landscape connectivity, especially for long-lived species for which first signatures of an extinction debt may arise only after decades.