Preparedness against floods in a hazard management perspective plays a major role in the pre-event phase. Hence, assessing urban vulnerability and resilience towards floods for different risk scenarios is a prerequisite for urban planners and decision makers. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to propose the design and implementation of a spatial decision support tool for mapping flood vulnerability in the metropolis of Tehran under different risk scenarios. Several factors reflecting topographical and hydrological characteristics, demographics, vegetation, land use, and urban features were considered, and their weights were determined using expert opinions and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) method. Thereafter, a vulnerability map for different risk scenarios was prepared using the ordered weighted averaging (OWA) method. Based on our findings from the vulnerability analysis of the case study, it was concluded that in the optimistic scenario (ORness = 1), more than 36% of Tehran’s metropolis area was marked with very high vulnerability, and in the pessimistic scenario (ORness = 0), it was less than 1%was marked with very high vulnerability. The sensitivity analysis of our results confirmed that the validity of the model’s outcomes in different scenarios, i.e., high reliability of the model’s outcomes. The methodical approach, choice of data, and the presented results and discussions can be exploited by a wide range of stakeholders, e.g., urban planners, decision makers, and hydrologists, to better plan and build resilience against floods.

Due to irregular and uncontrolled expansion of cities in developing countries, currently operational landfill sites cannot be used in the long-term, as people will be living in proximity to these sites and be exposed to unhygienic circumstances. Hence, this study aims at proposing an integrated approach for determining suitable locations for landfills while considering their physical expansion. The proposed approach utilizes the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) to weigh the sets of identified landfill location criteria. Furthermore, the weighted linear combination (WLC) approach was applied for the elicitation of the proper primary locations. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) and cellular automation-based Markov chain method were used to predict urban growth. To demonstrate the applicability of the developed approach, it was applied to a case study, namely the city of Mashhad in Iran, where suitable sites for landfills were identified considering the urban growth in different geographical directions for this city by 2048. The proposed approach could be of use for policymakers, urban planners, and other decision-makers to minimize uncertainty arising from long-term resource allocation.

The purpose of this study is to assess the vulnerability of urban blocks to earthquakes for Tehran as a city built on geological faults using an artificial neural network—multi-layer perceptron (ANN-MLP). Therefore, we first classified earthquake vulnerability evaluation criteria into three categories: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability capacity attributed to a total of 16 spatial criteria, which were inputted into the neural network. To train the neural network and compute an earthquake vulnerability map, we used a combined Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) process with 167 vulnerable locations as training data, of which 70% (117 points) were used for training, and 30% (50 points) were used for testing and validation. The Mean Average Error (MAE) of the implemented neural network was 0.085, which proves the efficacy of the designed model. The results showed that 29% of Tehran’s total area is extremely vulnerable to earthquakes. Our factor importance analysis showed that factors such as proximity to fault lines, high population density, and environmental factors gained higher importance scores for earthquake vulnerability assessment of the given case study. This methodical approach and the choice of data and methods can provide insight into scaling up the study to other regions. In addition, the resultant outcomes can help decision makers and relevant stakeholders to mitigate risks through resilience building.

The aim of this study was to propose an approach for assessing the social resilience of citizens, using a locative multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) model for an exemplary case study of Sarpol-e Zahab city, Iran. To do so, a set of 10 variables and 28 criteria affecting social resilience were used and their weights were measured using the Analytical Hierarchy Process, which was then inserted into the Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) model for mapping social resilience across our case study. Finally, the accuracy of the generated social resilience map, the correlation coefficient between the results of the WLC model and the accuracy level of the social resilience map were assessed, based on in-situ data collection after conducting a survey. The outcomes revealed that more than 60% of the study area falls into the low social resilience category, categorized as the most vulnerable areas. The correlation coefficient between the WLC model and the social resilience level was 79%, which proves the acceptability of our approach for mapping social resilience of citizens across cities vulnerable to diverse risks. The proposed methodological approach, which focuses on chosen data and presented discussions, borne from this study can be beneficial to a wide range of stakeholders and decision makers in prioritizing resources and efforts to benefit more vulnerable areas and inhabitants.

Quantification of Surface Ecological Status (SES) changes is of great importance for understanding human exposure and adaptability to the environment. This study aims to assess the effect of urban growth on spatial and temporal changes of SES over a set of neighboring Iranian cities, Amol, Babol, Qaemshahr, and Sari, which are located in moderate and humid climate conditions. Firstly, the built-up footprint was prepared using Landsat images based on the Automatic Built-up Extraction Index (ABEI). Then, the surface biophysical characteristics were calculated. Secondly, the SES was modeled using the Remotely Sensed Ecological Index (RSEI), and the spatio-temporal changes of the SES were evaluated. The results revealed that the average RSEI for these cities increased from 0.48, 0.51, 0.53, and 0.55 in 1986 to 0.69, 0.77, 0.75, and 0.78 in 2022, respectively. The proportion of the poor ecological condition class in these cities rose from 10%, 3%, 5%, and 1% to 74%, 64%, 54%, and 41% during the 1986–2022 period. Our findings indicate that the SES of these cities significantly decreased while they experienced large physical growth. The findings and the methodical approach of the study provide a data-driven approach for monitoring SES in fast growing regions, which is required for studying the impact of climate change on society.