Objective Serrated polyposis syndrome (SPS) is associated with an increased colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, although the magnitude of the risk remains uncertain. Whereas intensive endoscopic surveillance for CRC prevention is advised, predictors that identify patients who have high CRC risk remain unknown. We performed a multicentre nationwide study aimed at describing the CRC risk in patients with SPS and identifying clinicopathological predictors independently associated with CRC. Design From March 2013 through September 2014, patients with SPS were retrospectively recruited at 18 Spanish centres. Data were collected from medical, endoscopy and histopathology reports. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify CRC risk factors. Results In 296 patients with SPS with a median follow-up time of 45 months (IQR 26–79.7), a median of 26 (IQR 18.2–40.7) serrated polyps and 3 (IQR 1–6) adenomas per patient were detected. Forty-seven patients (15.8%) developed CRC at a mean age of 53.9±12.8, and 4 out of 47 (8.5%) tumours were detected during surveillance (cumulative CRC incidence 1.9%). Patients with >2 sessile serrated adenomas/polyps (SSA/Ps) proximal to splenic flexure and ≥1 proximal SSA/P with high-grade dysplasia were independent CRC risk factors (incremental OR=2, 95% CI 1.22 to 3.24, p=0.006). Patients with no risk factors showed a 55% decrease in CRC risk (OR=0.45, 95% CI 0.24 to 0.86, p=0.01). Conclusions Patients with SPS have an increased risk of CRC, although lower than previously published. Close colonoscopy surveillance in experienced centres show a low risk of developing CRC (1.9% in 5 years). Specific polyp features (SSA/P histology, proximal location and presence of high-grade dysplasia) should be used to guide clinical management.

Risk prediction models for colorectal cancer (CRC) detection in symptomatic patients based on available biomarkers may improve CRC diagnosis. Our aim was to develop, compare with the NICE referral criteria and externally validate a CRC prediction model, COLONPREDICT, based on clinical and laboratory variables. This prospective cross-sectional study included consecutive patients with gastrointestinal symptoms referred for colonoscopy between March 2012 and September 2013 in a derivation cohort and between March 2014 and March 2015 in a validation cohort. In the derivation cohort, we assessed symptoms and the NICE referral criteria, and determined levels of faecal haemoglobin and calprotectin, blood haemoglobin, and serum carcinoembryonic antigen before performing an anorectal examination and a colonoscopy. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the model with diagnostic accuracy with CRC detection as the main outcome. We included 1572 patients in the derivation cohort and 1481 in the validation cohorts, with a 13.6 % and 9.1 % CRC prevalence respectively. The final prediction model included 11 variables: age (years) (odds ratio [OR] 1.04, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.02–1.06), male gender (OR 2.2, 95 % CI 1.5–3.4), faecal haemoglobin ≥20 μg/g (OR 17.0, 95 % CI 10.0–28.6), blood haemoglobin <10 g/dL (OR 4.8, 95 % CI 2.2–10.3), blood haemoglobin 10–12 g/dL (OR 1.8, 95 % CI 1.1–3.0), carcinoembryonic antigen ≥3 ng/mL (OR 4.5, 95 % CI 3.0–6.8), acetylsalicylic acid treatment (OR 0.4, 95 % CI 0.2–0.7), previous colonoscopy (OR 0.1, 95 % CI 0.06–0.2), rectal mass (OR 14.8, 95 % CI 5.3–41.0), benign anorectal lesion (OR 0.3, 95 % CI 0.2–0.4), rectal bleeding (OR 2.2, 95 % CI 1.4–3.4) and change in bowel habit (OR 1.7, 95 % CI 1.1–2.5). The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.92 (95 % CI 0.91–0.94), higher than the NICE referral criteria (AUC 0.59, 95 % CI 0.55–0.63; p < 0.001). On the basis of the thresholds with 90 % (5.6) and 99 % (3.5) sensitivity, we divided the derivation cohort into three risk groups for CRC detection: high (30.9 % of the cohort, positive predictive value [PPV] 40.7 %, 95 % CI 36.7–45.9 %), intermediate (29.5 %, PPV 4.4 %, 95 % CI 2.8–6.8 %) and low (39.5 %, PPV 0.2 %, 95 % CI 0.0–1.1 %). The discriminatory ability was equivalent in the validation cohort (AUC 0.92, 95 % CI 0.90–0.94; p = 0.7). COLONPREDICT is a highly accurate prediction model for CRC detection.

Background Serrated polyposis syndrome (SPS) has been associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Accordingly, intensive surveillance with annual colonoscopy is advised. The aim of this multicenter study was to describe the risk of advanced lesions in SPS patients undergoing surveillance, and to identify risk factors that could guide the prevention strategy. Methods From March 2013 to April 2015, 296 patients who fulfilled criteria I and/or III for SPS were retrospectively recruited at 18 centers. We selected patients in whom successful clearing colonoscopy had been performed and who underwent subsequent endoscopic surveillance. Advanced neoplasia was defined as CRC, advanced adenoma, or advanced serrated lesion that were ≥ 10 mm and/or with dysplasia. Cumulative incidence of advanced neoplasia was calculated and independent predictors of advanced neoplasia development were identified. Results In 152 SPS patients a total of 315 surveillance colonoscopies were performed (median 2, range 1 – 7). The 3-year cumulative incidence of CRC and advanced neoplasia were 3.1 % (95 % confidence interval [CI] 0 – 6.9) and 42.0 % (95 %CI 32.4 – 51.7), respectively. Fulfilling both I + III criteria and the presence of advanced serrated lesions at baseline colonoscopy were independent predictors of advanced neoplasia development (odds ratio [OR] 1.85, 95 %CI 1.03 – 3.33, P = 0.04 and OR 2.62, 95 %CI 1.18 – 5.81, P = 0.02, respectively). During follow-up, nine patients (5.9 %) were referred for surgery for invasive CRC (n = 4, 2.6 %) or because of polyp burden (n = 5, 3.3 %). After total colectomy, 17.9 % patients developed advanced neoplasia in the retained rectum. Conclusions Patients with SPS have a substantial risk of developing advanced neoplasia under endoscopic surveillance, whereas CRC incidence is low. Personalized endoscopic surveillance based on polyp burden and advanced serrated histology could help to optimize prevention in patients with SPS. ^* These authors contributed equally to the work

The serrated polyposis syndrome (SPS) is the most common and yet underdiagnosed colorectal polyposis syndrome. It is characterized by multiple and/or large colonic serrated polyps and a higher associated risk for colorectal cancer (CRC). The main objective of this study was to identify new candidate genes involved in the germline predisposition to SPS/CRC. Thirty-nine SPS patients from 16 families (≥2 patients per family) were recruited without alterations in well-known hereditary CRC genes, and germline and somatic whole-exome sequencing were performed. Germline rare variants with plausible pathogenicity, located in genes involved in cancer development, senescence and epigenetic regulation were selected. Somatic mutational profiling and signature analysis was pursued in one sample per family, when possible. After data filtering, ANXA10, ASXL1, CFTR, DOT1L, HIC1, INO80, KLF3, MCM3AP, MCM8, PDLIM2, POLD1, TP53BP1, WNK2 and WRN were highlighted as the more promising candidate genes for SPS germline predisposition with potentially pathogenic variants shared within families. Somatic analysis characterized mutational profiles in advanced serrated polyps/tumors, revealing a high proportion of hypermutated samples, with a prevalence of clock-like mutational signatures in most samples and the presence of DNA mismatch repair-defective signatures in some cases. In conclusion, we identified new candidate genes to be involved in familial SPS. Further functional studies and replication in additional cohorts are required to confirm the selected candidates.