The building energy performance pattern is predicted to be shifted in the future due to climate change. To analyze this phenomenon, there is an urgent need for reliable and robust future weather datasets. Several ways for estimating future climate projection and creating weather files exist. This paper attempts to comparatively analyze three tools for generating future weather datasets based on statistical downscaling (WeatherShift, Meteonorm, and CCWorldWeatherGen) with one based on dynamical downscaling (a future-typical meteorological year, created using a high-quality reginal climate model). Four weather datasets for the city of Rome are generated and applied to the energy simulation of a mono family house and an apartment block as representative building types of Italian residential building stock. The results show that morphed weather files have a relatively similar operation in predicting the future comfort and energy performance of the buildings. In addition, discrepancy between them and the dynamical downscaled weather file is revealed. The analysis shows that this comes not only from using different approaches for creating future weather datasets but also by the building type. Therefore, for finding climate resilient solutions for buildings, care should be taken in using different methods for developing future weather datasets, and regional and localized analysis becomes vital.

The European building sector significantly contributes to the EU’s greenhouse gas reduction goals, with the 2024 Energy Performance of Buildings Directive (EPBD) aiming to achieve a decarbonised building stock by 2050. By focusing on an existing office building representative of the Italian building stock, this research evaluates various energy efficiency measures and integrates renewable energy systems to transform the building into a Zero-emission Building (ZeB). Moreover, it also utilises future weather data to address the effects of climate change. Results highlight the actions needed for an empirical ZeB transition, offering insights into challenges and key performance indicators across different intervention scenarios. The findings contribute to establishing national ZeB standards, emphasising the importance of the national building renovation plan in compliance with the EPBD recast requirements.

Urban populations are exposed to elevated local temperatures compared to surrounding rural areas due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect, which increases health risks and energy demand. The literature highlights that accurately quantifying UHIs at broader territorial scales remains challenging because of limited microscale climate data availability and, at the same time, the difficulty of increasing the spatial coverage of the outcomes. Within the PRIN2022-PNRR CRiStAll (Climate Resilient Strategies by Archetype-based Urban Energy Modeling) project, this work addresses these limitations by coupling Urban Building Energy Modeling with archetype-based representation of urban form and high-resolution climatic data. Urban archetypes are defined as representative microscale configurations derived from combinations of urban canyon geometries and building typologies, accounting for different climatic zones, use categories, and construction periods. The proposed methodology was applied to the city of Turin (Italy), where representative urban blocks were identified and modeled to evaluate key urban context metrics under short-, medium-, and long-term climate scenarios. The UHI effect was assessed using Urban Weather Generator, while energy simulations were performed with CitySim. The urban archetype approach enables both fine spatial resolution and extensive spatial coverage, supporting urban-scale mapping.