Land-use/land cover (LULC) changes have an impact on land surface temperature (LST) at the local, regional, and global scales. To simulate the LULC and LST changes of the environmentally important area of northern Pakistan, this research focused on spatio-temporal LULC and associated LST changes since 1987 and made predictions to 2047. We classified LULC from Landsat TM and ETM data, using the maximum probability supervised categorization approach. LST was retrieved using the Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE) methodology. Furthermore, we simulated LULC using the integrated approaches of Cellular Automata (CA) and Weighted Evidence (WE) and used a regression model to predict LST. The built-up areas and vegetation have increased by 2.1% and 11% due to a decline in the barren land by −8.5% during the last 30 years. The LULC is expected to increase, particularly the built-up and vegetation classes by 2.74% and 13.66%, respectively, and the barren land would decline by −4.2% by 2047. Consequently, the higher LST classes (i.e., 27 °C to <30 °C and ≥30 °C) soared up by about 25.18% and 34.26%, respectively, during the study period, which would further expand to 30.19% and 14.97% by 2047. The lower LST class (i.e., 12 °C to <21 °C) indicated a downtrend of about −41.29% and would further decrease to −3.13% in the next 30 years. The study findings are useful for planning and management, especially for climatologists, land-use planners, and researchers in sustainable land use with rapid urbanization.

Alteration in Land Use/Cover (LULC) considered a major challenge over the recent decades, as it plays an important role in diminishing biodiversity, altering the macro and microclimate. Therefore, the current study was designed to examine the past 30 years (1987–2017) changes in LULC and Land Surface Temperature (LST) and also simulated for next 30 years (2047). The LULC maps were developed based on maximum probability classification while the LST was retrieved from Landsat thermal bands and Radiative Transfer Equation (RTE) method for the respective years. Different approaches were used, such as Weighted Evidence (WE), Cellular Automata (CA) and regression prediction model for the year 2047. Resultantly, the LULC classification showed increasing trend in built-up and bare soil classes (13 km² and 89 km²), and the decreasing trend in vegetation class (−144 km²) in the study area. In the next 30 years, the built-up and bare soil classes would further rise with same speed (25 km² and 36.53 km²), and the vegetation class would further decline (−147 km²) until 2047. Similarly for LST, the temperature range for higher classes (27 -< 30 °C) increased by about 140 km² during 1987–2017, which would further enlarge (409 km²) until 2047. The lower LST range (15 °C to <21 °C) showed a decreasing trend (−54.94 km²) and would further decline to (−20 km²) until 2047 if it remained at the same speed. Prospective findings will be helpful for land use planners, climatologists and other scientists in reducing the increasing LST associated with LULC changes.