Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change through carbon storage and sequestration, though environmental change drivers and management scenarios are likely to influence these contributions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we employed three tree growth models-the Richard, Hossfeld, and Korf models-that account for the biological characteristics of trees, alongside national forest inventory (NFI) datasets from 1994 to 2018, to evaluate the carbon sink potential of existing forests and afforested regions in China from 2020 to 2100, assuming multiple afforestation and forest management scenarios. Our results indicate that the Richard, Hossfeld, and Korf models provided a good fit for 26 types of vegetation biomass in both natural and planted Chinese forests. These models estimate that in 2020, carbon stocks in existing Chinese forests are 7.62 ± 0.05 Pg C, equivalent to an average of 44.32 ± 0.32 Mg C/ ha. Our predictions then indicate this total forest carbon stock is expected to increase to 15.51 ± 0.99 Pg C (or 72.26 ± 4.6 Mg C/ha) in 2060, and further to 19.59 ± 1.36 Pg C (or 91.31 ± 6.33 Mg C/ha) in 2100. We also show that plantation management measures, namely tree species replacement, would increase carbon sinks to 0.09 Pg C/ year (contributing 38.9 %) in 2030 and 0.06 Pg C/ year (contributing 32.4 %) in 2060. Afforestation using tree species with strong carbon sink capacity in existing plantations would further significantly increase carbon sinks from 0.02 Pg C/year (contributing 10.3 %) in 2030 to 0.06 Pg C/year (contributing 28.2 %) in 2060. Our results quantify the role plantation management plays in providing a strong increase in forest carbon sequestration at national scales, pointing to afforestation with native tree species with high carbon sequestration as key in achieving China's 2060 carbon neutrality target.

Detecting forest degradation from satellite observation data is of great significance in revealing the process of decreasing forest quality and giving a better understanding of regional or global carbon emissions and their feedbacks with climate changes. In this paper, a quick and applicable approach was developed for monitoring forest degradation in the Three-North Forest Shelterbelt in China from multi-scale remote sensing data. Firstly, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI), Leaf Area Index (LAI), Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR) and Net Primary Production (NPP) from remote sensing data were selected as the indicators to describe forest degradation. Then multi-scale forest degradation maps were obtained by adopting a new classification method using time series MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images, and were validated with ground survey data. At last, the criteria and indicators for monitoring forest degradation from remote sensing data were discussed, and the uncertainly of the method was analyzed. Results of this paper indicated that multi-scale remote sensing data have great potential in detecting regional forest degradation.