Forests play a crucial role in mitigating climate change through carbon storage and sequestration, though environmental change drivers and management scenarios are likely to influence these contributions across multiple spatial and temporal scales. In this study, we employed three tree growth models-the Richard, Hossfeld, and Korf models-that account for the biological characteristics of trees, alongside national forest inventory (NFI) datasets from 1994 to 2018, to evaluate the carbon sink potential of existing forests and afforested regions in China from 2020 to 2100, assuming multiple afforestation and forest management scenarios. Our results indicate that the Richard, Hossfeld, and Korf models provided a good fit for 26 types of vegetation biomass in both natural and planted Chinese forests. These models estimate that in 2020, carbon stocks in existing Chinese forests are 7.62 ± 0.05 Pg C, equivalent to an average of 44.32 ± 0.32 Mg C/ ha. Our predictions then indicate this total forest carbon stock is expected to increase to 15.51 ± 0.99 Pg C (or 72.26 ± 4.6 Mg C/ha) in 2060, and further to 19.59 ± 1.36 Pg C (or 91.31 ± 6.33 Mg C/ha) in 2100. We also show that plantation management measures, namely tree species replacement, would increase carbon sinks to 0.09 Pg C/ year (contributing 38.9 %) in 2030 and 0.06 Pg C/ year (contributing 32.4 %) in 2060. Afforestation using tree species with strong carbon sink capacity in existing plantations would further significantly increase carbon sinks from 0.02 Pg C/year (contributing 10.3 %) in 2030 to 0.06 Pg C/year (contributing 28.2 %) in 2060. Our results quantify the role plantation management plays in providing a strong increase in forest carbon sequestration at national scales, pointing to afforestation with native tree species with high carbon sequestration as key in achieving China's 2060 carbon neutrality target.

Accurate estimates of forest site productivity are essential for environmental planning and forest management. In this study, we developed a new productivity index, hereafter termed basal area potential productivity index (BAPP), to estimate site productivity for irregular and complex forests characterized by multi-aged, multi-species, and multi-layer stands. We presented the biological relevance of BAPP with its computational details. We also compared BAPP against basal area realized productivity (BARP) in order to verify the practicability and reliability of BAPP. Time-series data of the national forest inventory on 1912 permanent sample plots that were located in two main forest types and consisted of oak-dominated mixed forests and other broadleaf forests in northeast China were used to demonstrate the application of BAPP. The results showed that the value of BAPP for each sample plot was larger than or equal to the corresponding BARP value for each forest type. For appropriately managed stands with relatively better site conditions, the values of both BARP and BAPP were almost identical. The values of the difference between BAPP and BARP could therefore be used to effectively assess forest site productivity. Meanwhile, BAPP also provides much reliable and valuable information that can aid decision-making in forest management.

Accurate knowledge of individual tree ages is critical for forestry and ecological research. However, previous methods suffer from flaws such as tree damage, low efficiency, or ignoring autocorrelation among residuals. In this paper, an approach for estimating the ages of individual trees is proposed based on the diameter series of Cinnamomum camphora (Cinnamomum camphora (L.) Presl), Schima superba (Schima superba Gardn. et Champ.), and Liquidambar formosana (Liquidambar formosana Hance). Diameter series were obtained by stem analysis. Panel data contains more information, more variability, and more efficiency than pure time series data or cross-sectional data, which is why diameter series at stump and breast heights were chosen to form the panel data. After choosing a base growth equation, a constraint was added to the equation to improve stability. The difference method was used to reduce autocorrelation and the parameter classification method was used to improve model suitability. Finally, the diameter increment equation of parameter a-classification was developed. The mean errors of estimated ages based on the panel data at breast height for C. camphora, S. superba, and L. formosana were 0.47, 2.46, and −0.56 years and the root mean square errors were 2.04, 3.15 and 2.47 years, respectively. For C. camphora and L. formosana, the estimated accuracy based on the panel data was higher at breast height than at stump height. This approach to estimating individual tree ages is highly accurate and reliable, and provides a feasible way to obtain tree ages by field measurement.

Research Highlights: this study developed additive biomass equations respectively from nonlinear regression (NLR) on original data and linear regression (LR) on a log-transformed scale by nonlinear seemingly unrelated regression (NSUR). To choose appropriate regression form, the error structures (additive vs. multiplicative) of compatible biomass equations were determined on the use of the multivariate likelihood function which extended the method of likelihood analysis to the general occasion of a contemporaneously correlated set of equations. Background and Objectives: both NLR and LR could yield the expected predictions for allometric scaling relationship. In recent studies, there are vigorous debates on which regression (NLR or LR) should apply. The main aim of this paper is to analyze the error structure of a compatible system of biomass equations to choose more appropriate regression. Materials and Methods: based on biomass data of 270 trees for three tree species, additive biomass equations were developed respectively for NLR and LR by NSUR. Multivariate likelihood functions were computed to determine the error structure based on the multivariate probability density function. The anti-log correction factor which kept the additive property was obtained separately using the arithmetic and weighted average of basic correction factors from each equation to assess two model specifications on the comparably original scale. Results: the assumption of additive error structure was well favored for an additive system of three species based on the joint likelihood function. However, the error structure of each component equation calculated from the conditional likelihood function for compatible equations might be different. The performance of additive equations corrected by a weighted average of basic correction factor from each component equation performed better than that of the arithmetic average and held good property of compatibility after corrected. Conclusions: NLR provided a better fit for additive biomass equations of three tree species. Additive equations which confirmed the responding assumption of error structure performed better. The joint likelihood function on the use of the multivariate likelihood function could be used to analyze the error structure of the additive system which was a result of a tradeoff for each component equation. Based on the average of correction factors from each component equation to correct the bias of additive equations was feasible for the hold of additive property, which might lead to a poor correction effect for some component equation.

Forest aboveground biomass (AGB) products serve as essential references for research on carbon cycle and climate change. However, significant uncertainties exist regarding forest AGB products and their evaluation methods. This study aims to evaluate AGB products in the context of discrepancies in plot size and product scales, while also investigate the applicability of large-scale AGB products at a regional level. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)’s Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) and the European Space Agency (ESA)’s Climate Change Initiative (CCI) biomass data were evaluated using sample plots from the National Forest Inventory (NFI). The study was conducted in Jilin Province, located in Northeast China, which is predominantly covered by natural forests. Spatial representativeness evaluation indicators for sample plots were established, followed by a comprehensive representativeness assessment and the selection of sample plots based on the criteria importance through the intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) method. Additionally, the study conducted an overall evaluation of the products, as well as evaluations across different biomass ranges and various forest types. The results indicate that the accuracy metrics demonstrated improved performance when using representative plots compared to all plots, with the R² increasing by 15.38%. Both products demonstrated optimal accuracy and stability in the 50–150 Mg/ha range. GEDI and CCI biomass data indicated an overall underestimation, with biases of −25.68 Mg/ha and −83.95 Mg/ha, respectively. Specifically, a slight overestimation occurred in the <50 Mg/ha range, while a gradually increasing underestimation was observed in the ≥50 Mg/ha range. This study highlights the advantages of spatial representativeness analysis in mitigating evaluation uncertainties arising from scale mismatches and enhancing the reliability of product evaluation. The accuracy trends of AGB products offer significant insights that could facilitate improvements and enhance their application.