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Despite the significant volume of fiscal recovery measures announced by countries to deal with the COVID-19 crisis, most recovery plans allocate a low percentage to green recovery. We present scenarios exploring the long-term impact of the COVID-19 crisis and develop a Green Recovery scenario using three global models to analyze the impact of a more ambitious allocation. The results show that a Green Recovery scenario, with 1% of global GDP in fiscal support directed to mitigation measures for three years, could reduce global CO2 emissions by 10.5−15.5% below pre-COVID projections by 2030. The share of renewables in global electricity generation is projected to reach 45% in 2030, the uptake of electric vehicles would be accelerated, and energy efficiency in the buildings and industry sector would improve. However, such a temporary investment should be reinforced with sustained climate policies after 2023 to lead to socio-economic restructuring towards carbon neutrality by mid-century.
Ioannis Dafnomilis; Hsing-Hsuan Chen; Michel Elzen; Panagiotis Fragkos; Unnada Chewpreecha; Heleen van Soest; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Panagiotis Karkatsoulis; Leonidas Paroussos; Harmen Sytze de Boer; Vassilis Daioglou; Oreane Edelenbosch; Bence Kiss-Dobronyi; Detlef van Vuuren. Targeted green recovery measures in a post-COVID-19 world enable the energy transition. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleIoannis Dafnomilis, Hsing-Hsuan Chen, Michel Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Unnada Chewpreecha, Heleen van Soest, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Panagiotis Karkatsoulis, Leonidas Paroussos, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Vassilis Daioglou, Oreane Edelenbosch, Bence Kiss-Dobronyi, Detlef van Vuuren. Targeted green recovery measures in a post-COVID-19 world enable the energy transition. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleIoannis Dafnomilis; Hsing-Hsuan Chen; Michel Elzen; Panagiotis Fragkos; Unnada Chewpreecha; Heleen van Soest; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Panagiotis Karkatsoulis; Leonidas Paroussos; Harmen Sytze de Boer; Vassilis Daioglou; Oreane Edelenbosch; Bence Kiss-Dobronyi; Detlef van Vuuren. 2021. "Targeted green recovery measures in a post-COVID-19 world enable the energy transition." , no. : 1.
This study compares greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions projections in 2030 under current policies and those under 2030 mitigation targets for nine key non-G20 countries, that collectively account for about 5 % of global total emissions today. These include the four largest non-G20 fossil CO2 emitting Parties to the UN climate convention pre- Paris Agreement (Iran, Kazakhstan, Thailand and Ukraine) and one of the largest land-use GHG emitters in the world (Democratic Republic of the Congo). Other countries assessed include major economies in their respective regions (Chile, Colombia, Morocco and the Philippines). In addition to economy-wide GHG emissions projections, we also assessed the projected GHG emissions peak year and the progression of per capita GHG emissions up to 2030. Our GHG emissions projections are also compared with previous studies. On economy-wide GHG emissions, Colombia, Iran, Morocco, and Ukraine were projected to likely meet or significantly overachieve their unconditional 2030 targets with existing policies, while DRC and Thailand would come very close to their targets. Kazakhstan and the Philippines would need to strengthen their action to meet their targets, while Chile recently raised its 2030 target ambition. Only Colombia and Ukraine are projected to have peaked their emissions by 2030. Per capita GHG emissions excluding land-use under current policies were projected to increase in all countries from 2010 levels by 8 % to over 40 % depending on the country. While the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on 2030 emissions is highly uncertain, our assessment on the target achievement would not change for most countries when the emission reductions estimated for 2020 in the literature were assumed to remain in 2030. The findings of this study highlight the importance of enhanced and frequent progress-tracking of climate action of major emitters outside G20, as is currently done for G20 members, to ensure that the global collective progress will become aligned with the pathways toward Paris climate goals.
Takeshi Kuramochi; Leonardo Nascimento; Mia Moisio; Michel Den Elzen; Nicklas Forsell; Heleen van Soest; Paola Tanguy; Sofia Gonzales; Frederic Hans; M. Louise Jeffery; Hanna Fekete; Tessa Schiefer; Maria Jose De Villafranca Casas; Gustavo De Vivero-Serrano; Ioannis Dafnomilis; Mark Roelfsema; Niklas Höhne. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios in nine key non-G20 countries: An assessment of progress toward 2030 climate targets. Environmental Science & Policy 2021, 123, 67 -81.
AMA StyleTakeshi Kuramochi, Leonardo Nascimento, Mia Moisio, Michel Den Elzen, Nicklas Forsell, Heleen van Soest, Paola Tanguy, Sofia Gonzales, Frederic Hans, M. Louise Jeffery, Hanna Fekete, Tessa Schiefer, Maria Jose De Villafranca Casas, Gustavo De Vivero-Serrano, Ioannis Dafnomilis, Mark Roelfsema, Niklas Höhne. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios in nine key non-G20 countries: An assessment of progress toward 2030 climate targets. Environmental Science & Policy. 2021; 123 ():67-81.
Chicago/Turabian StyleTakeshi Kuramochi; Leonardo Nascimento; Mia Moisio; Michel Den Elzen; Nicklas Forsell; Heleen van Soest; Paola Tanguy; Sofia Gonzales; Frederic Hans; M. Louise Jeffery; Hanna Fekete; Tessa Schiefer; Maria Jose De Villafranca Casas; Gustavo De Vivero-Serrano; Ioannis Dafnomilis; Mark Roelfsema; Niklas Höhne. 2021. "Greenhouse gas emission scenarios in nine key non-G20 countries: An assessment of progress toward 2030 climate targets." Environmental Science & Policy 123, no. : 67-81.
Over 100 countries have set or are considering net-zero emissions or neutrality targets. However, most of the information on emissions neutrality (such as timing) is provided for the global level. Here, we look at national-level neutrality-years based on globally cost-effective 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios from integrated assessment models. These results indicate that domestic net zero greenhouse gas and CO2 emissions in Brazil and the USA are reached a decade earlier than the global average, and in India and Indonesia later than global average. These results depend on choices like the accounting of land-use emissions. The results also show that carbon storage and afforestation capacity, income, share of non-CO2 emissions, and transport sector emissions affect the variance in projected phase-out years across countries. We further compare these results to an alternative approach, using equity-based rules to establish target years. These results can inform policymakers on net-zero targets.
Heleen L. van Soest; Michel G. J. Den Elzen; Detlef P. van Vuuren. Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications 2021, 12, 1 -9.
AMA StyleHeleen L. van Soest, Michel G. J. Den Elzen, Detlef P. van Vuuren. Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications. 2021; 12 (1):1-9.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHeleen L. van Soest; Michel G. J. Den Elzen; Detlef P. van Vuuren. 2021. "Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement." Nature Communications 12, no. 1: 1-9.
The wave of national net zero CO2 and greenhouse gas emission targets could, if fully implemented, reduce best estimates of projected global average temperature increase to 2.1–2.4°C by 2100 and could bring achievement of the Paris Agreement within reach. 127 countries are discussing, have announced or have adopted net zero targets, which together cover 63% of global emissions. Together, these net zero targets could significantly lower projected global warming compared to currently implemented policies (2.9 to 3.2°C) or to the pledges submitted to the Paris Agreement (2.6 to 2.9°C).
Niklas Höhne; Matthew Gidden; Michel Elzen; Frederic Hans; Claire Fyson; Andreas Geiges; Louise Jeffery; Sofia Gonzales; Silke Mooldijk; Willion Hare; Joeri Rogelj. Wave of net zero greenhouse gas emission targets opens window on meeting the Paris Agreement. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleNiklas Höhne, Matthew Gidden, Michel Elzen, Frederic Hans, Claire Fyson, Andreas Geiges, Louise Jeffery, Sofia Gonzales, Silke Mooldijk, Willion Hare, Joeri Rogelj. Wave of net zero greenhouse gas emission targets opens window on meeting the Paris Agreement. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNiklas Höhne; Matthew Gidden; Michel Elzen; Frederic Hans; Claire Fyson; Andreas Geiges; Louise Jeffery; Sofia Gonzales; Silke Mooldijk; Willion Hare; Joeri Rogelj. 2021. "Wave of net zero greenhouse gas emission targets opens window on meeting the Paris Agreement." , no. : 1.
Closing the remaining emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will likely require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries, but need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant measures informed by interactions with country experts. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models (IAMs). We show that a global roll-out of these good practice policies closes the emissions gap between current NDCs and a cost-optimal well below 2 °C scenario by two thirds by 2030 and more than fully by 2050, while being less disruptive than a scenario that delays cost-optimal mitigation to 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 50%-85% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.
Heleen Van Soest; Lara Aleluia Reis; Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Christoph Bertram; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Michel Elzen; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Neil Grant; Mathijs Harmsen; Gokul Iyer; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Köberle; Elmar Kriegler; Aman Malik; Shivika Mittal; Ken Oshiro; Keywan Riahi; Mark Roelfsema; Bastiaan Van Ruijven; Roberto Schaeffer; Diego Silva Herran; Massimo Tavoni; Gamze Unlu; Toon Vandyck; Detlef Van Vuuren. A Global Roll-out of Nationally Relevant Policies Bridges the Emissions Gap. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleHeleen Van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Neil Grant, Mathijs Harmsen, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre Köberle, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Shivika Mittal, Ken Oshiro, Keywan Riahi, Mark Roelfsema, Bastiaan Van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva Herran, Massimo Tavoni, Gamze Unlu, Toon Vandyck, Detlef Van Vuuren. A Global Roll-out of Nationally Relevant Policies Bridges the Emissions Gap. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHeleen Van Soest; Lara Aleluia Reis; Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Christoph Bertram; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Michel Elzen; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Neil Grant; Mathijs Harmsen; Gokul Iyer; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Köberle; Elmar Kriegler; Aman Malik; Shivika Mittal; Ken Oshiro; Keywan Riahi; Mark Roelfsema; Bastiaan Van Ruijven; Roberto Schaeffer; Diego Silva Herran; Massimo Tavoni; Gamze Unlu; Toon Vandyck; Detlef Van Vuuren. 2021. "A Global Roll-out of Nationally Relevant Policies Bridges the Emissions Gap." , no. : 1.
This article reviews climate change mitigation policies implemented in five major emitting economies: China, the European Union, India, Japan and the United States. It analyses their historical performance in terms of energy system and greenhouse gas emissions indicators. In cases where policies aim to reduce future emissions, their target performance levels are assessed. The review centres on the sectors of electricity generation, passenger vehicles, freight transport, forestry, industry, buildings, agriculture, and oil and gas production. Most focus countries have implemented successful policies for renewable energy, fuel efficiency, electrification of passenger vehicles, and forestry. For other sectors, information is limited or very heterogeneous (e.g. buildings, appliances, agriculture) or there are few comprehensive policies in place (e.g. industry). The article further presents an explorative emissions scenario developed under the assumption that all countries will replicate both the observed trends in sector-level indicators and the trends that policies for future emissions reductions aspire to achieve. It shows that the global replication of sector progress would reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 by about 20% compared to a current policies scenario. All countries analysed would overachieve the emissions reduction targets in their post-2020 climate targets. However, the resulting reduction in global emissions by 2030 would still not be sufficient to keep the world on track for a global cost-effective pathway that keeps temperature increase below 2°C. The findings of this study emphasise the need for transformative policies to keep the Paris Agreement temperature limit within reach.
Hanna Fekete; Takeshi Kuramochi; Mark Roelfsema; Michel Den Elzen; Nicklas Forsell; Niklas Höhne; Lisa Luna; Frederic Hans; Sebastian Sterl; Jos Olivier; Heleen van Soest; Stefan Frank; Mykola Gusti. A review of successful climate change mitigation policies in major emitting economies and the potential of global replication. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2020, 137, 110602 .
AMA StyleHanna Fekete, Takeshi Kuramochi, Mark Roelfsema, Michel Den Elzen, Nicklas Forsell, Niklas Höhne, Lisa Luna, Frederic Hans, Sebastian Sterl, Jos Olivier, Heleen van Soest, Stefan Frank, Mykola Gusti. A review of successful climate change mitigation policies in major emitting economies and the potential of global replication. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2020; 137 ():110602.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHanna Fekete; Takeshi Kuramochi; Mark Roelfsema; Michel Den Elzen; Nicklas Forsell; Niklas Höhne; Lisa Luna; Frederic Hans; Sebastian Sterl; Jos Olivier; Heleen van Soest; Stefan Frank; Mykola Gusti. 2020. "A review of successful climate change mitigation policies in major emitting economies and the potential of global replication." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 137, no. : 110602.
Many countries have implemented national climate policies to accomplish pledged Nationally Determined Contributions and to contribute to the temperature objectives of the Paris Agreement on climate change. In 2023, the global stocktake will assess the combined effort of countries. Here, based on a public policy database and a multi-model scenario analysis, we show that implementation of current policies leaves a median emission gap of 22.4 to 28.2 GtCO2eq by 2030 with the optimal pathways to implement the well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C Paris goals. If Nationally Determined Contributions would be fully implemented, this gap would be reduced by a third. Interestingly, the countries evaluated were found to not achieve their pledged contributions with implemented policies (implementation gap), or to have an ambition gap with optimal pathways towards well below 2 °C. This shows that all countries would need to accelerate the implementation of policies for renewable technologies, while efficiency improvements are especially important in emerging countries and fossil-fuel-dependent countries.
Mark Roelfsema; Heleen L. Van Soest; Mathijs Harmsen; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Christoph Bertram; Michel Den Elzen; Niklas Höhne; Gabriela Iacobuta; Volker Krey; Elmar Kriegler; Gunnar Luderer; Keywan Riahi; Falko Ueckerdt; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Matthew Gidden; Florian Humpenöder; Daniel Huppmann; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Keii Gi; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre C. Köberle; Lara Aleluia Reis; Pedro Rochedo; Roberto Schaeffer; Ken Oshiro; Zoi Vrontisi; Wenying Chen; Gokul C. Iyer; Jae Edmonds; Maria Kannavou; Kejun Jiang; Ritu Mathur; George Safonov; Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan. Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications 2020, 11, 1 -12.
AMA StyleMark Roelfsema, Heleen L. Van Soest, Mathijs Harmsen, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Christoph Bertram, Michel Den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Gabriela Iacobuta, Volker Krey, Elmar Kriegler, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi, Falko Ueckerdt, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Matthew Gidden, Florian Humpenöder, Daniel Huppmann, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Keii Gi, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre C. Köberle, Lara Aleluia Reis, Pedro Rochedo, Roberto Schaeffer, Ken Oshiro, Zoi Vrontisi, Wenying Chen, Gokul C. Iyer, Jae Edmonds, Maria Kannavou, Kejun Jiang, Ritu Mathur, George Safonov, Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan. Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement. Nature Communications. 2020; 11 (1):1-12.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMark Roelfsema; Heleen L. Van Soest; Mathijs Harmsen; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Christoph Bertram; Michel Den Elzen; Niklas Höhne; Gabriela Iacobuta; Volker Krey; Elmar Kriegler; Gunnar Luderer; Keywan Riahi; Falko Ueckerdt; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Matthew Gidden; Florian Humpenöder; Daniel Huppmann; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Keii Gi; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre C. Köberle; Lara Aleluia Reis; Pedro Rochedo; Roberto Schaeffer; Ken Oshiro; Zoi Vrontisi; Wenying Chen; Gokul C. Iyer; Jae Edmonds; Maria Kannavou; Kejun Jiang; Ritu Mathur; George Safonov; Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan. 2020. "Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement." Nature Communications 11, no. 1: 1-12.
New synthesis shows what a wasted decade means for the climate pact made in Paris. New synthesis shows what a wasted decade means for the climate pact made in Paris.
Niklas Höhne; Michel Den Elzen; Joeri Rogelj; Bert Metz; Taryn Fransen; Takeshi Kuramochi; Anne Olhoff; Joseph Alcamo; Harald Winkler; Sha Fu; Michiel Schaeffer; Roberto Schaeffer; Glen P. Peters; Simon Maxwell; Navroz K. Dubash. Emissions: world has four times the work or one-third of the time. Nature 2020, 579, 25 -28.
AMA StyleNiklas Höhne, Michel Den Elzen, Joeri Rogelj, Bert Metz, Taryn Fransen, Takeshi Kuramochi, Anne Olhoff, Joseph Alcamo, Harald Winkler, Sha Fu, Michiel Schaeffer, Roberto Schaeffer, Glen P. Peters, Simon Maxwell, Navroz K. Dubash. Emissions: world has four times the work or one-third of the time. Nature. 2020; 579 (7797):25-28.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNiklas Höhne; Michel Den Elzen; Joeri Rogelj; Bert Metz; Taryn Fransen; Takeshi Kuramochi; Anne Olhoff; Joseph Alcamo; Harald Winkler; Sha Fu; Michiel Schaeffer; Roberto Schaeffer; Glen P. Peters; Simon Maxwell; Navroz K. Dubash. 2020. "Emissions: world has four times the work or one-third of the time." Nature 579, no. 7797: 25-28.
Many countries are formulating a long-term climate strategy to be submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change by 2020. Model-based, multi-disciplinary assessments can be a key ingredient for informing policy makers and engaging stakeholders in this process.
Matthias Weitzel; Toon Vandyck; Kimon Keramidas; Markus Amann; Pantelis Capros; Michel Den Elzen; Stefan Frank; Stéphane Tchung-Ming; Ana Díaz Vázquez; Bert Saveyn. Model-based assessments for long-term climate strategies. Nature Climate Change 2019, 9, 345 -347.
AMA StyleMatthias Weitzel, Toon Vandyck, Kimon Keramidas, Markus Amann, Pantelis Capros, Michel Den Elzen, Stefan Frank, Stéphane Tchung-Ming, Ana Díaz Vázquez, Bert Saveyn. Model-based assessments for long-term climate strategies. Nature Climate Change. 2019; 9 (5):345-347.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMatthias Weitzel; Toon Vandyck; Kimon Keramidas; Markus Amann; Pantelis Capros; Michel Den Elzen; Stefan Frank; Stéphane Tchung-Ming; Ana Díaz Vázquez; Bert Saveyn. 2019. "Model-based assessments for long-term climate strategies." Nature Climate Change 9, no. 5: 345-347.
The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratcheting-up’ process, which aims to ensure that the NDCs comply with the overall goal of limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C or even 1.5 °C, will most likely include some evaluation of ‘fairness’ of these reduction targets. In the literature, fairness has been discussed around equity principles, for which many different effort-sharing approaches have been proposed. In this research, we analysed how country-level emission targets and carbon budgets can be derived based on such criteria. We apply novel methods directly based on the global carbon budget, and, for comparison, more commonly used methods using GHG mitigation pathways. For both, we studied the following approaches: equal cumulative per capita emissions, contraction and convergence, grandfathering, greenhouse development rights and ability to pay. As the results critically depend on parameter settings, we used the wide authorship from a range of countries included in this paper to determine default settings and sensitivity analyses. Results show that effort-sharing approaches that (i) calculate required reduction targets in carbon budgets (relative to baseline budgets) and/or (ii) take into account historical emissions when determining carbon budgets can lead to (large) negative remaining carbon budgets for developed countries. This is the case for the equal cumulative per capita approach and especially the greenhouse development rights approach. Furthermore, for developed countries, all effort-sharing approaches except grandfathering lead to more stringent budgets than cost-optimal budgets, indicating that cost-optimal approaches do not lead to outcomes that can be regarded as fair according to most effort-sharing approaches.
Nicole J. Van Den Berg; Heleen L. van Soest; Andries F. Hof; Michel G. J. Den Elzen; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Wenying Chen; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Shinichiro Fujimori; Niklas Höhne; Alexandre C. Kõberle; David McCollum; Roberto Schaeffer; Swapnil Shekhar; Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan; Zoi Vrontisi; Kornelis Blok. Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways. Climatic Change 2019, 162, 1805 -1822.
AMA StyleNicole J. Van Den Berg, Heleen L. van Soest, Andries F. Hof, Michel G. J. Den Elzen, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Wenying Chen, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Shinichiro Fujimori, Niklas Höhne, Alexandre C. Kõberle, David McCollum, Roberto Schaeffer, Swapnil Shekhar, Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan, Zoi Vrontisi, Kornelis Blok. Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways. Climatic Change. 2019; 162 (4):1805-1822.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNicole J. Van Den Berg; Heleen L. van Soest; Andries F. Hof; Michel G. J. Den Elzen; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Wenying Chen; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Shinichiro Fujimori; Niklas Höhne; Alexandre C. Kõberle; David McCollum; Roberto Schaeffer; Swapnil Shekhar; Saritha Sudharmma Vishwanathan; Zoi Vrontisi; Kornelis Blok. 2019. "Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways." Climatic Change 162, no. 4: 1805-1822.
Under the Paris Agreement, countries committed to a variety of climate actions, including post-2020 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction targets. This study compares projected GHG emissions in the G20 economies under current climate policies to those under the GHG targets outlined in the nationally determined contributions (NDCs). It is based on an assessment of official governmental estimates and independent national and global studies. The study concludes that six G20 members (China, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia and Turkey) are projected to meet their unconditional NDC targets with current policies. Eight members (Argentina, Australia, Canada, the European Union, Republic of Korea, South Africa and the United States) require further action to achieve their targets. Insufficient information is available for Saudi Arabia, and emission projections for Brazil and Mexico are subject to considerable uncertainty. The study also presents high-level decarbonisation indicators to better understand the current progress towards meeting the NDCs – Saudi Arabia and South Africa were found to continue increasing both emission intensity per unit GDP and emissions per capita under current policies by 2030 from 2015 levels.
Michel Den Elzen; Takeshi Kuramochi; Niklas Höhne; Jasmin Cantzler; Kendall Esmeijer; Hanna Fekete; Taryn Fransen; Kimon Keramidas; Mark Roelfsema; Fu Sha; Heleen van Soest; Toon Vandyck. Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets? Energy Policy 2018, 126, 238 -250.
AMA StyleMichel Den Elzen, Takeshi Kuramochi, Niklas Höhne, Jasmin Cantzler, Kendall Esmeijer, Hanna Fekete, Taryn Fransen, Kimon Keramidas, Mark Roelfsema, Fu Sha, Heleen van Soest, Toon Vandyck. Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets? Energy Policy. 2018; 126 ():238-250.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMichel Den Elzen; Takeshi Kuramochi; Niklas Höhne; Jasmin Cantzler; Kendall Esmeijer; Hanna Fekete; Taryn Fransen; Kimon Keramidas; Mark Roelfsema; Fu Sha; Heleen van Soest; Toon Vandyck. 2018. "Are the G20 economies making enough progress to meet their NDC targets?" Energy Policy 126, no. : 238-250.
Mark Roelfsema; Hanna Fekete; Niklas Höhne; Michel Den Elzen; Nicklas Forsell; Takeshi Kuramochi; Heleen De Coninck; Detlef P. Van Vuuren. Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario. Climate Policy 2018, 18, 1103 -1113.
AMA StyleMark Roelfsema, Hanna Fekete, Niklas Höhne, Michel Den Elzen, Nicklas Forsell, Takeshi Kuramochi, Heleen De Coninck, Detlef P. Van Vuuren. Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario. Climate Policy. 2018; 18 (9):1103-1113.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMark Roelfsema; Hanna Fekete; Niklas Höhne; Michel Den Elzen; Nicklas Forsell; Takeshi Kuramochi; Heleen De Coninck; Detlef P. Van Vuuren. 2018. "Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario." Climate Policy 18, no. 9: 1103-1113.
Xunzhang Pan; Michel Den Elzen; Niklas Höhne; Fei Teng; Lining Wang. Exploring fair and ambitious mitigation contributions under the Paris Agreement goals. Environmental Science & Policy 2017, 74, 49 -56.
AMA StyleXunzhang Pan, Michel Den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Fei Teng, Lining Wang. Exploring fair and ambitious mitigation contributions under the Paris Agreement goals. Environmental Science & Policy. 2017; 74 ():49-56.
Chicago/Turabian StyleXunzhang Pan; Michel Den Elzen; Niklas Höhne; Fei Teng; Lining Wang. 2017. "Exploring fair and ambitious mitigation contributions under the Paris Agreement goals." Environmental Science & Policy 74, no. : 49-56.
The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emissions and energy system changes under (i) current policies, (ii) implementation of the NDCs, and (iii) various trajectories to a radiative forcing level of 2.8 W/m2 in 2100, which gives a probability of about two thirds to limit warming to below 2 °C. The scenarios show that a cost-optimal pathway from 2020 onwards towards 2.8 W/m2 leads to a global greenhouse gas emission level of 38 gigatonne CO2 equivalent (GtCO2eq) by 2030, equal to a reduction of 20% compared to the 2010 level. The NDCs are projected to lead to 2030 emission levels of 50 GtCO2eq, which is still an increase compared to the 2010 level. A scenario that achieves the 2.8 W/m2 forcing level in 2100 from the 2030 NDC level requires more rapid transitions after 2030 to meet the forcing target. It shows an annual reduction rate in greenhouse gas emissions of 4.7% between 2030 and 2050, rapidly phasing out unabated coal-fired power plant capacity, more rapid scale-up of low-carbon energy, and higher mitigation costs. A bridge scenario shows that enhancing the ambition level of NDCs before 2030 allows for a smoother energy system transition, with average annual emission reduction rates of 4.5% between 2030 and 2050, and more time to phase out coal capacity.
Heleen L. Van Soest; Harmen Sytze De Boer; Mark Roelfsema; Michel G.J. Den Elzen; Annemiek Admiraal; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Andries F. Hof; Maarten Van Den Berg; Mathijs J.H.M. Harmsen; David E.H.J. Gernaat; Nicklas Forsell. Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems. Climatic Change 2017, 144, 165 -179.
AMA StyleHeleen L. Van Soest, Harmen Sytze De Boer, Mark Roelfsema, Michel G.J. Den Elzen, Annemiek Admiraal, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Andries F. Hof, Maarten Van Den Berg, Mathijs J.H.M. Harmsen, David E.H.J. Gernaat, Nicklas Forsell. Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems. Climatic Change. 2017; 144 (2):165-179.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHeleen L. Van Soest; Harmen Sytze De Boer; Mark Roelfsema; Michel G.J. Den Elzen; Annemiek Admiraal; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Andries F. Hof; Maarten Van Den Berg; Mathijs J.H.M. Harmsen; David E.H.J. Gernaat; Nicklas Forsell. 2017. "Early action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems." Climatic Change 144, no. 2: 165-179.
Andries F. Hof; Michel G.J. Den Elzen; Annemiek Admiraal; Mark Roelfsema; David E.H.J. Gernaat; Detlef P. van Vuuren. Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C. Environmental Science & Policy 2017, 71, 30 -40.
AMA StyleAndries F. Hof, Michel G.J. Den Elzen, Annemiek Admiraal, Mark Roelfsema, David E.H.J. Gernaat, Detlef P. van Vuuren. Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C. Environmental Science & Policy. 2017; 71 ():30-40.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAndries F. Hof; Michel G.J. Den Elzen; Annemiek Admiraal; Mark Roelfsema; David E.H.J. Gernaat; Detlef P. van Vuuren. 2017. "Global and regional abatement costs of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and of enhanced action to levels well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C." Environmental Science & Policy 71, no. : 30-40.
In order to evaluate the effectiveness of climate policy, it is important to understand emission trends and policies at the national level. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions, so-called (I)NDCs, outlining the contribution of different Parties to the overall target of the agreement to limit global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C. Here, we assess emission trajectories and the energy system transition of 11 major economies (in the remainder: countries) projected by integrated assessment models (IAMs) for baseline and cost-optimal 450 ppm CO2 eq mitigation scenarios and compare the results with the (I)NDCs. Limiting global temperature increase to below 2 °C implies a substantial reduction of the estimated available carbon budget for each country. The national carbon budgets between 2010 and 2100 showed reductions between the baseline and the 2 °C consistent mitigation scenario ranging from 52% in South Korea to 95% in Brazil. While in the baseline scenario, the share of low-carbon primary energy sources is projected to remain around 15% (with Brazil being a notable exception, reaching 30%); in the mitigation scenarios, the share of low-carbon energy is projected to increase to over 50% in 2050 in nearly all countries, with the EU, Japan and Canada reaching the largest shares. Comparison with the (I)NDCs shows that in Brazil, Canada, the EU, Mexico (conditional target), South Korea and the USA, the emission reduction targets of the NDCs are closer to the mitigation requirement of the 2 °C scenario; in other countries, however, there is still a large gap. The national detail of the indicators adds to the literature on low-carbon emission pathways, assists the assessment of the Paris Agreement and provides support to national policymakers to identify focus areas for climate policy in the coming years.
Heleen L. Van Soest; Lara Aleluia Reis; Laurent Drouet; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Michel G. J. Den Elzen; Massimo Tavoni; Keigo Akimoto; Katherine V. Calvin; Panagiotis Fragkos; Alban Kitous; Gunnar Luderer; Keywan Riahi. Low-emission pathways in 11 major economies: comparison of cost-optimal pathways and Paris climate proposals. Climatic Change 2017, 142, 491 -504.
AMA StyleHeleen L. Van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Laurent Drouet, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Michel G. J. Den Elzen, Massimo Tavoni, Keigo Akimoto, Katherine V. Calvin, Panagiotis Fragkos, Alban Kitous, Gunnar Luderer, Keywan Riahi. Low-emission pathways in 11 major economies: comparison of cost-optimal pathways and Paris climate proposals. Climatic Change. 2017; 142 (3):491-504.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHeleen L. Van Soest; Lara Aleluia Reis; Laurent Drouet; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Michel G. J. Den Elzen; Massimo Tavoni; Keigo Akimoto; Katherine V. Calvin; Panagiotis Fragkos; Alban Kitous; Gunnar Luderer; Keywan Riahi. 2017. "Low-emission pathways in 11 major economies: comparison of cost-optimal pathways and Paris climate proposals." Climatic Change 142, no. 3: 491-504.
One of the most fundamental questions surrounding the new Paris Agreement is whether countries’ proposals to reduce GHG emissions after 2020 are equally ambitious, considering differences in circumstances between countries. We review a variety of approaches to assess the ambition of the GHG emission reduction proposals by countries. The approaches are applied illustratively to the mitigation part of the post-2020 climate proposals (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) by China, the EU, and the US. The analysis reveals several clear trends, even though the results differ per individual assessment approach. We recommend that such a comprehensive ambition assessment framework, employing a large variety of approaches, is used in the future to capture a wide spectrum of perspectives on ambition. POLICY RELEVANCE Assessing the ambition of the national climate proposals is particularly important as the Paris Agreement asks for regular reviews of national contributions, keeping in mind that countries raise their ambition over time. Such an assessment will be an important part of the regular global stocktake that will take place every five years, starting with a ‘light’ version in 2018. However, comprehensive methods to assess the proposals are lacking. This article provides such a comprehensive assessment framework.
Niklas Höhne; Hanna Fekete; Michel G.J. Den Elzen; Andries F. Hof; Takeshi Kuramochi. Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets: a comprehensive framework. Climate Policy 2017, 18, 425 -441.
AMA StyleNiklas Höhne, Hanna Fekete, Michel G.J. Den Elzen, Andries F. Hof, Takeshi Kuramochi. Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets: a comprehensive framework. Climate Policy. 2017; 18 (4):425-441.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNiklas Höhne; Hanna Fekete; Michel G.J. Den Elzen; Andries F. Hof; Takeshi Kuramochi. 2017. "Assessing the ambition of post-2020 climate targets: a comprehensive framework." Climate Policy 18, no. 4: 425-441.
Forest-based climate mitigation may occur through conserving and enhancing the carbon sink and through reducing greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation. Yet the inclusion of forests in international climate agreements has been complex, often considered a secondary mitigation option. In the context of the Paris Climate Agreement, countries submitted their (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions ((I)NDCs), including climate mitigation targets. Assuming full implementation of (I)NDCs, we show that land use, and forests in particular, emerge as a key component of the Paris Agreement: turning globally from a net anthropogenic source during 1990–2010 (1.3 ± 1.1 GtCO2e yr−1) to a net sink of carbon by 2030 (up to −1.1 ± 0.5 GtCO2e yr−1), and providing a quarter of emission reductions planned by countries. Realizing and tracking this mitigation potential requires more transparency in countries’ pledges and enhanced science-policy cooperation to increase confidence in numbers, including reconciling the ≈3 GtCO2e yr−1 difference in estimates between country reports and scientific studies. Download references
Giacomo Grassi; Joanna House; Giacomo Grassi Frank Dentener; Sandro Federici; Michel Den Elzen; Jim Penman. The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation. Nature Climate Change 2017, 7, 220 -226.
AMA StyleGiacomo Grassi, Joanna House, Giacomo Grassi Frank Dentener, Sandro Federici, Michel Den Elzen, Jim Penman. The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation. Nature Climate Change. 2017; 7 (3):220-226.
Chicago/Turabian StyleGiacomo Grassi; Joanna House; Giacomo Grassi Frank Dentener; Sandro Federici; Michel Den Elzen; Jim Penman. 2017. "The key role of forests in meeting climate targets requires science for credible mitigation." Nature Climate Change 7, no. 3: 220-226.
In preparation for the 2015 international climate negotiations in Paris, Parties submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) expressing each countries’ respective post-2020 climate actions. In this paper we assess individual Parties’ expected reduction of emissions/removals from land use, land use change, and forest (LULUCF) sector for reaching their INDC target, and the aggregate global effect on the INDCs on the future development of emission and removals from the LULUCF sector. This has been done through analysis Parties’ official information concerning the role of LULUCF mitigation efforts for reaching INDC targets as presented in National Communications, Biennial Update Reports, and Additional file 1. On the aggregate global level, the Parties themselves perceive that net LULUCF emissions will increase over time. Overall, the net LULUCF emissions are estimated to increase by 0.6 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.1–1.1) in 2020 and 1.3 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.7–2.1) in 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. On the other hand, the full implementation of the INDCs is estimated to lead to a reduction of net LULUCF emissions in 2030 compared to 2010 levels. It is estimated that if all conditional and unconditional INDCs are implemented, net LULUCF emissions would decrease by 0.5 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.2–0.8) by 2020 and 0.9 Gt CO2e year−1 (range: 0.5–1.3) by 2030, both compared to 2010 levels. The largest absolute reductions of net LULUCF emissions (compared to 2010 levels) are expected from Indonesia and Brazil, followed by China and Ethiopia. The results highlights that countries are expecting a significant contribution from the LULUCF sector to meet their INDC mitigation targets. At the global level, the LULUCF sector is expected to contribute to as much as 20% of the full mitigation potential of all the conditional and unconditional INDC targets. However, large uncertainties still surround how Parties estimate, project and account for emissions and removals from the LULUCF sector. While INDCs represent a new source of land-use information, further information and updates of the INDCs will be required to reduce uncertainty of the LULUCF projections.
Nicklas Forsell; Olga Turkovska; Mykola Gusti; Michael Obersteiner; Michel Den Elzen; Petr Havlik. Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections. Carbon Balance and Management 2016, 11, 1 -17.
AMA StyleNicklas Forsell, Olga Turkovska, Mykola Gusti, Michael Obersteiner, Michel Den Elzen, Petr Havlik. Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections. Carbon Balance and Management. 2016; 11 (1):1-17.
Chicago/Turabian StyleNicklas Forsell; Olga Turkovska; Mykola Gusti; Michael Obersteiner; Michel Den Elzen; Petr Havlik. 2016. "Assessing the INDCs’ land use, land use change, and forest emission projections." Carbon Balance and Management 11, no. 1: 1-17.
The Paris climate agreement aims at holding global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and to “pursue efforts” to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. To accomplish this, countries have submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) outlining their post-2020 climate action. Here we assess the effect of current INDCs on reducing aggregate greenhouse gas emissions, its implications for achieving the temperature objective of the Paris climate agreement, and potential options for overachievement. The INDCs collectively lower greenhouse gas emissions compared to where current policies stand, but still imply a median warming of 2.6–3.1 degrees Celsius by 2100. More can be achieved, because the agreement stipulates that targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are strengthened over time, both in ambition and scope. Substantial enhancement or over-delivery on current INDCs by additional national, sub-national and non-state actions is required to maintain a reasonable chance of meeting the target of keeping warming well below 2 degrees Celsius. White lines show the median of each range. The white dashed line shows the median estimate of what the INDCs would deliver if all conditions are met. The 20th–80th-percentile ranges are shown for the no-policy baseline and 2 °C scenarios. For current-policy and INDC scenarios, the minimum–maximum and 10th–90th-percentile range across all assessed studies are given, respectively. Symbols represent single studies, and are offset slightly to increase readability. Dashed brown lines connect data points for each study. References to all assessed studies are provided in Box 1. Scenarios are also described in Box 1. a, GHG emission ranges (20th–80th percentile) of scenarios from the IPCC AR5 Scenario Database with constant policy assumptions from 2010 onwards (blue-to-green shaded ranges), grouped per estimated median global-mean temperature increase in 2100 relative to pre-industrial levels (1850–1900), and range of the scenario subset limiting warming to below 2 °C by 2100 with 50%–66% likelihood (dark orange) from year-2030 INDC levels. The vertical orange lines show the unconditional INDC range in 2025 and 2030, as shown in Fig. 1. The 2 °C range shown in Fig. 1 starts global least-cost mitigation action in 2020 instead of 2010 and is not included here. b, Relationship between global GHG emission levels in 2030 and median global-mean temperature increase by 2100 based on scenarios shown in a. Each dot represents a single scenario. The blue line shows a smoothing spline fit (R2 ≈ 0.93) and the blue-shaded area shows fits to the 5th and 95th percentile over all points. Comparing the central fit with the range of year-2030 GHG emissions implied by the unconditional INDCs shows that INDCs are roughly consistent with a median warming of 2.6–3.1 °C by 2100 (horizontal dark-orange range), and a 2.2–3.5 °C range including scenario projection uncertainty (horizontal light-orange range). Vertical dashed lines and shaded regions show year-2030 GHG estimates for the various scenario sets. c, Annual CO2 reduction rates modelled in scenarios limiting warming to below 2 °C from year-2030 INDC levels (dark-orange range in a; bars, median; vertical lines, spread across all available scenarios) and historical examples (range for France, Sweden and Denmark is based on ref. 74; see Supplementary Text 4). d, Implied cumulative carbon emissions including uncertainties, and comparison to budget ranges for not exceeding 1.5 °C (with 50% probability) and 2 °C (with 66% probability) from refs 9 and 11 (dark bar, lower estimate; light bar, high-range estimate). Historical estimates are from ref. 75. Vertical lines show the range due to scenario spread (Supplementary Text 3 and Supplementary Table 6). Arrows and bars in the first four columns show the projected cumulative CO2 emissions until 2030 for each respective scenario. Already a subscriber? Log in now or Register for online access.
Joeri Rogelj; Michel Den Elzen; Niklas Höhne; Taryn Fransen; Hanna Fekete; Harald Winkler; Roberto Schaeffer; Fu Sha; Keywan Riahi; Malte Meinshausen. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature 2016, 534, 631 -639.
AMA StyleJoeri Rogelj, Michel Den Elzen, Niklas Höhne, Taryn Fransen, Hanna Fekete, Harald Winkler, Roberto Schaeffer, Fu Sha, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen. Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C. Nature. 2016; 534 (7609):631-639.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJoeri Rogelj; Michel Den Elzen; Niklas Höhne; Taryn Fransen; Hanna Fekete; Harald Winkler; Roberto Schaeffer; Fu Sha; Keywan Riahi; Malte Meinshausen. 2016. "Paris Agreement climate proposals need a boost to keep warming well below 2 °C." Nature 534, no. 7609: 631-639.