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Dr. Bas van Ruijven
International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria

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0 Climate Change
0 Sustainable Development Goals
0 Poverty and inequality
0 Energy Demand
0 Socioeconomic scenarios

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Letter
Published: 29 June 2021 in Environmental Research Letters
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The Paris Agreement does not only stipulate to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 °C, it also calls for 'making finance flows consistent with a pathway towards low greenhouse gas emissions'. Consequently, there is an urgent need to understand the implications of climate targets for energy systems and quantify the associated investment requirements in the coming decade. A meaningful analysis must however consider the near-term mitigation requirements to avoid the overshoot of a temperature goal. It must also include the recently observed fast technological progress in key mitigation options. Here, we use a new and unique scenario ensemble that limit peak warming by construction and that stems from seven up-to-date integrated assessment models. This allows us to study the near-term implications of different limits to peak temperature increase under a consistent and up-to-date set of assumptions. We find that ambitious immediate action allows for limiting median warming outcomes to well below 2 °C in all models. By contrast, current nationally determined contributions for 2030 would add around 0.2 °C of peak warming, leading to an unavoidable transgression of 1.5 °C in all models, and 2 °C in some. In contrast to the incremental changes as foreseen by current plans, ambitious peak warming targets require decisive emission cuts until 2030, with the most substantial contribution to decarbonization coming from the power sector. Therefore, investments into low-carbon power generation need to increase beyond current levels to meet the Paris goals, especially for solar and wind technologies and related system enhancements for electricity transmission, distribution and storage. Estimates on absolute investment levels, up-scaling of other low-carbon power generation technologies and investment shares in less ambitious scenarios vary considerably across models. In scenarios limiting peak warming to below 2 °C, while coal is phased out quickly, oil and gas are still being used significantly until 2030, albeit at lower than current levels. This requires continued investments into existing oil and gas infrastructure, but investments into new fields in such scenarios might not be needed. The results show that credible and effective policy action is essential for ensuring efficient allocation of investments aligned with medium-term climate targets.

ACS Style

Christoph Bertram; Keywan Riahi; Jérôme Hilaire; Valentina Bosetti; Laurent Drouet; Oliver Fricko; Aman Malik; Larissa Pupo Nogueira; Bob van der Zwaan; Bas van Ruijven; Detlef van Vuuren; Matthias Weitzel; Francesco Dalla Longa; Harmen-Sytze de Boer; Johannes Emmerling; Florian Fosse; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Mathijs Harmsen; Kimon Keramidas; Paul Natsuo Kishimoto; Elmar Kriegler; Volker Krey; Leonidas Paroussos; Deger Saygin; Zoi Vrontisi; Gunnar Luderer. Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 074020 .

AMA Style

Christoph Bertram, Keywan Riahi, Jérôme Hilaire, Valentina Bosetti, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Aman Malik, Larissa Pupo Nogueira, Bob van der Zwaan, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef van Vuuren, Matthias Weitzel, Francesco Dalla Longa, Harmen-Sytze de Boer, Johannes Emmerling, Florian Fosse, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Mathijs Harmsen, Kimon Keramidas, Paul Natsuo Kishimoto, Elmar Kriegler, Volker Krey, Leonidas Paroussos, Deger Saygin, Zoi Vrontisi, Gunnar Luderer. Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (7):074020.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Christoph Bertram; Keywan Riahi; Jérôme Hilaire; Valentina Bosetti; Laurent Drouet; Oliver Fricko; Aman Malik; Larissa Pupo Nogueira; Bob van der Zwaan; Bas van Ruijven; Detlef van Vuuren; Matthias Weitzel; Francesco Dalla Longa; Harmen-Sytze de Boer; Johannes Emmerling; Florian Fosse; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Mathijs Harmsen; Kimon Keramidas; Paul Natsuo Kishimoto; Elmar Kriegler; Volker Krey; Leonidas Paroussos; Deger Saygin; Zoi Vrontisi; Gunnar Luderer. 2021. "Energy system developments and investments in the decisive decade for the Paris Agreement goals." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 7: 074020.

Letter
Published: 01 June 2021 in Environmental Research Letters
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Long-term mitigation scenarios developed by integrated assessment models underpin major aspects of recent IPCC reports and have been critical to identify the system transformations that are required to meet stringent climate goals. However, they have been criticized for proposing pathways that may prove challenging to implement in the real world and for failing to capture the social and institutional challenges of the transition. There is a growing interest to assess the feasibility of these scenarios, but past research has mostly focused on theoretical considerations. This paper proposes a novel and versatile multidimensional framework that allows evaluating and comparing decarbonization pathways by systematically quantifying feasibility concerns across geophysical, technological, economic, socio-cultural and institutional dimensions. This framework enables to assess the timing, disruptiveness and scale of feasibility concerns, and to identify trade-offs across different feasibility dimensions. As a first implementation of the proposed framework, we map the feasibility concerns of the IPCC 1.5 °C Special Report scenarios. We select 24 quantitative indicators and propose feasibility thresholds based on insights from an extensive analysis of the literature and empirical data. Our framework is, however, flexible and allows evaluations based on different thresholds or aggregation rules. Our analyses show that institutional constraints, which are often not accounted for in scenarios, are key drivers of feasibility concerns. Moreover, we identify a clear intertemporal trade-off, with early mitigation being more disruptive but preventing higher and persistent feasibility concerns produced by postponed mitigation action later in the century.

ACS Style

Elina Brutschin; Silvia Pianta; Massimo Tavoni; Keywan Riahi; Valentina Bosetti; Giacomo Marangoni; Bas J van Ruijven. A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 064069 .

AMA Style

Elina Brutschin, Silvia Pianta, Massimo Tavoni, Keywan Riahi, Valentina Bosetti, Giacomo Marangoni, Bas J van Ruijven. A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (6):064069.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Elina Brutschin; Silvia Pianta; Massimo Tavoni; Keywan Riahi; Valentina Bosetti; Giacomo Marangoni; Bas J van Ruijven. 2021. "A multidimensional feasibility evaluation of low-carbon scenarios." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 6: 064069.

Article
Published: 04 May 2021 in Climatic Change
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Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) project long-term transformation pathways in energy and land-use systems under what-if assumptions. IAM evaluation is necessary to improve the models’ usefulness as scientific tools applicable in the complex and contested domain of climate change mitigation. We contribute the first comprehensive synthesis of process-based IAM evaluation research, drawing on a wide range of examples across six different evaluation methods including historical simulations, stylised facts, and model diagnostics. For each evaluation method, we identify progress and milestones to date, and draw out lessons learnt as well as challenges remaining. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths, as well as constraints on its application. We use these insights to propose a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods to establish the appropriateness, interpretability, credibility, and relevance of process-based IAMs as useful scientific tools for informing climate policy. We also set out a programme of evaluation research to be mainstreamed both within and outside the IAM community.

ACS Style

Charlie Wilson; Céline Guivarch; Elmar Kriegler; Bas van Ruijven; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Volker Krey; Valeria Jana Schwanitz; Erica L. Thompson. Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation. Climatic Change 2021, 166, 1 -22.

AMA Style

Charlie Wilson, Céline Guivarch, Elmar Kriegler, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Volker Krey, Valeria Jana Schwanitz, Erica L. Thompson. Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation. Climatic Change. 2021; 166 (1-2):1-22.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Charlie Wilson; Céline Guivarch; Elmar Kriegler; Bas van Ruijven; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Volker Krey; Valeria Jana Schwanitz; Erica L. Thompson. 2021. "Evaluating process-based integrated assessment models of climate change mitigation." Climatic Change 166, no. 1-2: 1-22.

Journal article
Published: 01 May 2021 in Environmental Research Letters
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ACS Style

Mathijs Harmsen; Elmar Kriegler; Detlef P van Vuuren; Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst; Gunnar Luderer; Ryna Cui; Olivier Dessens; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Jennifer Faye Morris; Florian Fosse; Dimitris Fragkiadakis; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; David Gernaat; Céline Guivarch; Gokul Iyer; Panagiotis Karkatsoulis; Ilkka Keppo; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Köberle; Peter Kolp; Volker Krey; Christoph Krüger; Florian Leblanc; Shivika Mittal; Sergey Paltsev; Pedro Rochedo; Bas J van Ruijven; Ronald D Sands; Fuminori Sano; Jessica Strefler; Eveline Vasquez Arroyo; Kenichi Wada; Behnam Zakeri. Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 054046 .

AMA Style

Mathijs Harmsen, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Gunnar Luderer, Ryna Cui, Olivier Dessens, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Jennifer Faye Morris, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, David Gernaat, Céline Guivarch, Gokul Iyer, Panagiotis Karkatsoulis, Ilkka Keppo, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre Köberle, Peter Kolp, Volker Krey, Christoph Krüger, Florian Leblanc, Shivika Mittal, Sergey Paltsev, Pedro Rochedo, Bas J van Ruijven, Ronald D Sands, Fuminori Sano, Jessica Strefler, Eveline Vasquez Arroyo, Kenichi Wada, Behnam Zakeri. Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (5):054046.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mathijs Harmsen; Elmar Kriegler; Detlef P van Vuuren; Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst; Gunnar Luderer; Ryna Cui; Olivier Dessens; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Jennifer Faye Morris; Florian Fosse; Dimitris Fragkiadakis; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; David Gernaat; Céline Guivarch; Gokul Iyer; Panagiotis Karkatsoulis; Ilkka Keppo; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Köberle; Peter Kolp; Volker Krey; Christoph Krüger; Florian Leblanc; Shivika Mittal; Sergey Paltsev; Pedro Rochedo; Bas J van Ruijven; Ronald D Sands; Fuminori Sano; Jessica Strefler; Eveline Vasquez Arroyo; Kenichi Wada; Behnam Zakeri. 2021. "Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 5: 054046.

Preprint content
Published: 08 February 2021
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The COVID-19 pandemic caused radical temporary breaks with past energy use trends. However, how a post-pandemic recovery will impact the longer-term energy transition is unclear. Here, we present a set of global COVID-19 shock-and-recovery scenarios that systematically explore the demand-side effect on final energy and GHG emissions. Our pathways project final energy demand reductions of 12 to 40 EJ/yr by 2025 and cumulative CO2 emissions reductions by 2030 of 28 to 53 GtCO2, depending on the depth and duration of the economic downturn and demand-side changes. Recovering from the pandemic with low energy demand practices - embedded in new patterns of travel, work, consumption, and production – reduces climate mitigation challenges. A low energy demand recovery reduces carbon prices for a 1.5°C consistent pathway by 19%, lowers energy supply investments until 2030 by 2.1 trillion USD, and lessens pressure on the upscaling of renewable energy technologies.

ACS Style

Jarmo Kikstra; Adriano Vinca; Francesco Lovat; Benigna Boza-Kiss; Bastiaan van Ruijven; Charlie Wilson; Joeri Rogelj; Behnam Zakeri; Oliver Fricko; Keywan Riahi. COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Jarmo Kikstra, Adriano Vinca, Francesco Lovat, Benigna Boza-Kiss, Bastiaan van Ruijven, Charlie Wilson, Joeri Rogelj, Behnam Zakeri, Oliver Fricko, Keywan Riahi. COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jarmo Kikstra; Adriano Vinca; Francesco Lovat; Benigna Boza-Kiss; Bastiaan van Ruijven; Charlie Wilson; Joeri Rogelj; Behnam Zakeri; Oliver Fricko; Keywan Riahi. 2021. "COVID-19 impacts on energy demand can help reduce long-term mitigation challenge." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 04 February 2021 in Sustainability
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The evolution of long-term sustainable societies is closely connected to the transformation of the physical built environment in which those societies operate. In this paper, we present a comprehensive set of narratives for the built environment in Japan, consistent with the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) framework, to assess the future evolution of the adaptation and mitigation challenges. We focus on the linkage between sustainability factors and human living environments including urban form, buildings, and basic infrastructures. We introduce a new, sixth narrative to the SSPs, an alternative interpretation of SSP1. Whereas the original SSP1 assumes high societal and environmental sustainability combined with relatively high economic growth, the SSP1 variant does not highly rely on economic growth and is oriented towards a lower and more locally oriented consumption lifestyle. Nature-based solutions are integrated and examined in the new SSP1 narrative, which is aligned with the adaptation to the digital era with freedom of location. Recent global crises such as climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic may accelerate the transformation of societies. Therefore, this study attempts to imply the benefits and trade-offs of alternative pathways for the built environment.

ACS Style

Miho Kamei; Alessio Mastrucci; Bas Ruijven. A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan. Sustainability 2021, 13, 1653 .

AMA Style

Miho Kamei, Alessio Mastrucci, Bas Ruijven. A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (4):1653.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Miho Kamei; Alessio Mastrucci; Bas Ruijven. 2021. "A Future Outlook of Narratives for the Built Environment in Japan." Sustainability 13, no. 4: 1653.

Publisher correction
Published: 20 January 2021 in Nature Climate Change
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A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00981-9.

ACS Style

Brian C. O’Neill; Timothy R. Carter; Kristie Ebi; Paula A. Harrison; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Kasper Kok; Elmar Kriegler; Benjamin L. Preston; Keywan Riahi; Jana Sillmann; Bas J. van Ruijven; Detlef van Vuuren; David Carlisle; Cecilia Conde; Jan Fuglestvedt; Carole Green; Tomoko Hasegawa; Julia Leininger; Seth Monteith; Ramon Pichs-Madruga. Publisher Correction: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change 2021, 11, 274 -274.

AMA Style

Brian C. O’Neill, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie Ebi, Paula A. Harrison, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Kasper Kok, Elmar Kriegler, Benjamin L. Preston, Keywan Riahi, Jana Sillmann, Bas J. van Ruijven, Detlef van Vuuren, David Carlisle, Cecilia Conde, Jan Fuglestvedt, Carole Green, Tomoko Hasegawa, Julia Leininger, Seth Monteith, Ramon Pichs-Madruga. Publisher Correction: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change. 2021; 11 (3):274-274.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Brian C. O’Neill; Timothy R. Carter; Kristie Ebi; Paula A. Harrison; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Kasper Kok; Elmar Kriegler; Benjamin L. Preston; Keywan Riahi; Jana Sillmann; Bas J. van Ruijven; Detlef van Vuuren; David Carlisle; Cecilia Conde; Jan Fuglestvedt; Carole Green; Tomoko Hasegawa; Julia Leininger; Seth Monteith; Ramon Pichs-Madruga. 2021. "Publisher Correction: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework." Nature Climate Change 11, no. 3: 274-274.

Preprint content
Published: 19 January 2021
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Closing the remaining emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will likely require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries, but need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant measures informed by interactions with country experts. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models (IAMs). We show that a global roll-out of these good practice policies closes the emissions gap between current NDCs and a cost-optimal well below 2 °C scenario by two thirds by 2030 and more than fully by 2050, while being less disruptive than a scenario that delays cost-optimal mitigation to 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 50%-85% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.

ACS Style

Heleen Van Soest; Lara Aleluia Reis; Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Christoph Bertram; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Michel Elzen; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Neil Grant; Mathijs Harmsen; Gokul Iyer; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Köberle; Elmar Kriegler; Aman Malik; Shivika Mittal; Ken Oshiro; Keywan Riahi; Mark Roelfsema; Bastiaan Van Ruijven; Roberto Schaeffer; Diego Silva Herran; Massimo Tavoni; Gamze Unlu; Toon Vandyck; Detlef Van Vuuren. A Global Roll-out of Nationally Relevant Policies Bridges the Emissions Gap. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Heleen Van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Neil Grant, Mathijs Harmsen, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre Köberle, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Shivika Mittal, Ken Oshiro, Keywan Riahi, Mark Roelfsema, Bastiaan Van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva Herran, Massimo Tavoni, Gamze Unlu, Toon Vandyck, Detlef Van Vuuren. A Global Roll-out of Nationally Relevant Policies Bridges the Emissions Gap. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Heleen Van Soest; Lara Aleluia Reis; Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Christoph Bertram; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Michel Elzen; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Neil Grant; Mathijs Harmsen; Gokul Iyer; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Köberle; Elmar Kriegler; Aman Malik; Shivika Mittal; Ken Oshiro; Keywan Riahi; Mark Roelfsema; Bastiaan Van Ruijven; Roberto Schaeffer; Diego Silva Herran; Massimo Tavoni; Gamze Unlu; Toon Vandyck; Detlef Van Vuuren. 2021. "A Global Roll-out of Nationally Relevant Policies Bridges the Emissions Gap." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 15 January 2021
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Global emissions scenarios play a critical role in the assessment of strategies to mitigate climate change and their related societal transformations. The current generation of scenarios, however, are criticized because they rely heavily on net negative CO2 emissions (NNCE) that result from allowing temperature limits to be temporarily exceeded. In this study we present a new set of emissions scenarios that exclude NNCE. We show that such scenarios require a more rapid near-term transformation with significant long-term gains for the economy (even without considering the benefits of avoided climate impacts). Scenarios that avoid temperature overshoot and NNCE are thus not only economically more attractive over the long term, they also involve lower climate risks. Our study further identifies possible alternative configurations of net-zero CO2 emissions systems and the distinct roles of different sectors and regions in order to balance emissions sources and sinks.

ACS Style

Keywan Riahi; Christoph Bertram; Daniel Huppmann; Joeri Rogelj; Valentina Bosetti; Anique-Marie Cabardos; Andre Deppermann; Laurent Drouet; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Mathijs Harmsen; Tomoko Hasegawa; Volker Krey; Gunnar Luderer; Leonidas Paroussos; Roberto Schaeffer; Matthias Weitzel; Bob Van Der Zwaan; Zoi Vrontisi; Francesco Dalla Longa; Jacques Després; Florian Fosse; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Mykola Gusti; Florian Humpenöder; Kimon Keramidas; Paul Kishimoto; Elmar Kriegler; Malte Meinshausen; Larissa P. Nogueira; Ken Oshiro; Alexander Popp; Pedro Rochedo; Gamze Unlu; Bastiaan Van Ruijven; Jun'ya Takakura; Massimo Tavoni; Detlef Van Vuuren; Behnam Zakeri. Long-term economic benefits of stabilizing warming without overshoot – the ENGAGE model intercomparison. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Keywan Riahi, Christoph Bertram, Daniel Huppmann, Joeri Rogelj, Valentina Bosetti, Anique-Marie Cabardos, Andre Deppermann, Laurent Drouet, Stefan Frank, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Tomoko Hasegawa, Volker Krey, Gunnar Luderer, Leonidas Paroussos, Roberto Schaeffer, Matthias Weitzel, Bob Van Der Zwaan, Zoi Vrontisi, Francesco Dalla Longa, Jacques Després, Florian Fosse, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Mykola Gusti, Florian Humpenöder, Kimon Keramidas, Paul Kishimoto, Elmar Kriegler, Malte Meinshausen, Larissa P. Nogueira, Ken Oshiro, Alexander Popp, Pedro Rochedo, Gamze Unlu, Bastiaan Van Ruijven, Jun'ya Takakura, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef Van Vuuren, Behnam Zakeri. Long-term economic benefits of stabilizing warming without overshoot – the ENGAGE model intercomparison. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Keywan Riahi; Christoph Bertram; Daniel Huppmann; Joeri Rogelj; Valentina Bosetti; Anique-Marie Cabardos; Andre Deppermann; Laurent Drouet; Stefan Frank; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Mathijs Harmsen; Tomoko Hasegawa; Volker Krey; Gunnar Luderer; Leonidas Paroussos; Roberto Schaeffer; Matthias Weitzel; Bob Van Der Zwaan; Zoi Vrontisi; Francesco Dalla Longa; Jacques Després; Florian Fosse; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Mykola Gusti; Florian Humpenöder; Kimon Keramidas; Paul Kishimoto; Elmar Kriegler; Malte Meinshausen; Larissa P. Nogueira; Ken Oshiro; Alexander Popp; Pedro Rochedo; Gamze Unlu; Bastiaan Van Ruijven; Jun'ya Takakura; Massimo Tavoni; Detlef Van Vuuren; Behnam Zakeri. 2021. "Long-term economic benefits of stabilizing warming without overshoot – the ENGAGE model intercomparison." , no. : 1.

Perspective
Published: 25 November 2020 in Nature Climate Change
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Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario framework combining alternative futures of climate and society to facilitate integrated research and consistent assessment to inform policy. Here we assess how well this framework is working and what challenges it faces. We synthesize insights from scenario-based literature, community discussions and recent experience in assessments, concluding that the framework has been widely adopted across research communities and is largely meeting immediate needs. However, some mixed successes and a changing policy and research landscape present key challenges, and we recommend several new directions for the development and use of this framework. The SSP–RCP scenario framework has been an important component of physical, social and integrated climate change research for the past decade. This Perspective reviews the successes of the framework and the challenges it faces, and provides suggestions for improvement moving forward.

ACS Style

Brian C. O’Neill; Timothy R. Carter; Kristie Ebi; Paula A. Harrison; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Kasper Kok; Elmar Kriegler; Benjamin L. Preston; Keywan Riahi; Jana Sillmann; Bas J. Van Ruijven; Detlef Van Vuuren; David Carlisle; Cecilia Conde; Jan Fuglestvedt; Carole Green; Tomoko Hasegawa; Julia Leininger; Seth Monteith; Ramon Pichs-Madruga. Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change 2020, 10, 1074 -1084.

AMA Style

Brian C. O’Neill, Timothy R. Carter, Kristie Ebi, Paula A. Harrison, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Kasper Kok, Elmar Kriegler, Benjamin L. Preston, Keywan Riahi, Jana Sillmann, Bas J. Van Ruijven, Detlef Van Vuuren, David Carlisle, Cecilia Conde, Jan Fuglestvedt, Carole Green, Tomoko Hasegawa, Julia Leininger, Seth Monteith, Ramon Pichs-Madruga. Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework. Nature Climate Change. 2020; 10 (12):1074-1084.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Brian C. O’Neill; Timothy R. Carter; Kristie Ebi; Paula A. Harrison; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Kasper Kok; Elmar Kriegler; Benjamin L. Preston; Keywan Riahi; Jana Sillmann; Bas J. Van Ruijven; Detlef Van Vuuren; David Carlisle; Cecilia Conde; Jan Fuglestvedt; Carole Green; Tomoko Hasegawa; Julia Leininger; Seth Monteith; Ramon Pichs-Madruga. 2020. "Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework." Nature Climate Change 10, no. 12: 1074-1084.

Journal article
Published: 24 June 2019 in Nature Communications
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Future energy demand is likely to increase due to climate change, but the magnitude depends on many interacting sources of uncertainty. We combine econometrically estimated responses of energy use to income, hot and cold days with future projections of spatial population and national income under five socioeconomic scenarios and temperature increases around 2050 for two emission scenarios simulated by 21 Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we show that, across 210 realizations of socioeconomic and climate scenarios, vigorous (moderate) warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation around 2050 by 25–58% (11–27%), on top of a factor 1.7–2.8 increase above present-day due to socioeconomic developments. We find broad agreement among ESMs that energy demand rises by more than 25% in the tropics and southern regions of the USA, Europe and China. Socioeconomic scenarios vary widely in the number of people in low-income countries exposed to increases in energy demand. Future energy demand maybe induced by climate change and subject to uncertainties arising from different extent of climate change and socioeconomic development. Here the authors follow a top-down approach and combined the recently developed socio-economic and climate scenarios and found that across 210 scenarios, moderate warming increases global climate-exposed energy demand before adaptation by 25–58% between 2010 and 2050.

ACS Style

Bas J. Van Ruijven; Enrica De Cian; Ian Sue Wing. Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change. Nature Communications 2019, 10, 1 -12.

AMA Style

Bas J. Van Ruijven, Enrica De Cian, Ian Sue Wing. Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change. Nature Communications. 2019; 10 (1):1-12.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bas J. Van Ruijven; Enrica De Cian; Ian Sue Wing. 2019. "Amplification of future energy demand growth due to climate change." Nature Communications 10, no. 1: 1-12.

Journal article
Published: 26 February 2019 in Applied Energy
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Although the cement industry emits around 6% of global CO2 emissions, most global Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) barely represent this industrial subsector or do not cover all important processes. This study, describes the state-of-the-art of cement modelling in IAMs, suggests possible improvements and discusses the impacts of these on energy and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) in the IMAGE global IAM. It is found that two cement-sector specific GHG mitigation measures are often not explicitly accounted for in IAMs, namely: (i) retrofitting and (ii) reducing the clinker to cement ratio. For retrofitting, many measures are identified as cost-effective and when incorporating these in the IMAGE model overall energy use reduces between 2010 and 2035 by 9.8 and 11 EJ (4% and 5%) under the baseline and GHG mitigation scenarios, respectively. When incorporating the clinker to cement ratio by linking material availability to the activities in the steel industry and coal-fired power plants, the 2050 energy use reduces by 15% under the baseline scenario and increases by 9% under the GHG mitigation scenario as fewer coal-fired power plants are in operation. This is even more prominent in the long term. The 2100 energy use is 14% higher in the GHG mitigation scenario as even fewer coal-fired power plants are used drastically limiting the potential for clinker substitution with fly ash. These results highlight the importance of capturing cross-sectoral relationships between industries and of including sector specific mitigation measures in long-term energy models.

ACS Style

Katerina Kermeli; Oreane Y. Edelenbosch; Wina Crijns-Graus; Bas van Ruijven; Silvana Mima; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Ernst Worrell. The scope for better industry representation in long-term energy models: Modeling the cement industry. Applied Energy 2019, 240, 964 -985.

AMA Style

Katerina Kermeli, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Wina Crijns-Graus, Bas van Ruijven, Silvana Mima, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Ernst Worrell. The scope for better industry representation in long-term energy models: Modeling the cement industry. Applied Energy. 2019; 240 ():964-985.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Katerina Kermeli; Oreane Y. Edelenbosch; Wina Crijns-Graus; Bas van Ruijven; Silvana Mima; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Ernst Worrell. 2019. "The scope for better industry representation in long-term energy models: Modeling the cement industry." Applied Energy 240, no. : 964-985.

Journal article
Published: 30 November 2017 in Nature Climate Change
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As climate change progresses, the risk of adverse impacts on vulnerable populations is growing. As governments seek increased and drastic action, policymakers are likely to seek quantification of climate-change impacts and the consequences of mitigation policies on these populations. Current models used in climate research have a limited ability to represent the poor and vulnerable, or the different dimensions along which they face these risks. Best practices need to be adopted more widely, and new model features that incorporate social heterogeneity and different policy mechanisms need to be developed. Increased collaboration between modellers, economists, and other social scientists could aid these developments.\ud \ud We review the history and state of the art of models used in climate research, including integrated assessment models (IAMs) and national studies, and those that model mitigation and climate-change impacts. We assess how and to what extent they represent distributional impacts within countries. We argue that there is much scope to improve the representation of income distribution and poverty. Given the diversity of models, this endeavour presents fundamental challenges for some models, but possibly requires only incremental changes in others

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Narasimha D. Rao; Bas J. Van Ruijven; Keywan Riahi; Valentina Bosetti. Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research. Nature Climate Change 2017, 7, 857 -862.

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Narasimha D. Rao, Bas J. Van Ruijven, Keywan Riahi, Valentina Bosetti. Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research. Nature Climate Change. 2017; 7 (12):857-862.

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Narasimha D. Rao; Bas J. Van Ruijven; Keywan Riahi; Valentina Bosetti. 2017. "Improving poverty and inequality modelling in climate research." Nature Climate Change 7, no. 12: 857-862.

Erratum
Published: 08 July 2017 in Resources, Conservation and Recycling
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Bas J. Van Ruijven; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Willem Boskaljon; Maarten Neelis; Deger Saygin; Martin K. Patel. Corrigendum to “Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries” [Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 112 (2016) 15–36]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 2017, 125, 375 -380.

AMA Style

Bas J. Van Ruijven, Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Willem Boskaljon, Maarten Neelis, Deger Saygin, Martin K. Patel. Corrigendum to “Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries” [Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 112 (2016) 15–36]. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2017; 125 ():375-380.

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Bas J. Van Ruijven; Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Willem Boskaljon; Maarten Neelis; Deger Saygin; Martin K. Patel. 2017. "Corrigendum to “Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries” [Resour. Conserv. Recycl. 112 (2016) 15–36]." Resources, Conservation and Recycling 125, no. : 375-380.

Journal article
Published: 01 June 2017 in Energy Economics
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Nikolai B. Melnikov; Brian C. O’Neill; Michael G. Dalton; Bas J. Van Ruijven. Downscaling heterogeneous household outcomes in dynamic CGE models for energy-economic analysis. Energy Economics 2017, 65, 87 -97.

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Nikolai B. Melnikov, Brian C. O’Neill, Michael G. Dalton, Bas J. Van Ruijven. Downscaling heterogeneous household outcomes in dynamic CGE models for energy-economic analysis. Energy Economics. 2017; 65 ():87-97.

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Nikolai B. Melnikov; Brian C. O’Neill; Michael G. Dalton; Bas J. Van Ruijven. 2017. "Downscaling heterogeneous household outcomes in dynamic CGE models for energy-economic analysis." Energy Economics 65, no. : 87-97.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2017 in Global Environmental Change
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This paper describes the possible developments in global energy use and production, land use, emissions and climate changes following the SSP1 storyline, a development consistent with the green growth (or sustainable development) paradigm (a more inclusive development respecting environmental boundaries). The results are based on the implementation using the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model and are compared with a) other IMAGE implementations of the SSPs (SSP2 and SSP3) and b) the SSP1 implementation of other integrated assessment models. The results show that a combination of resource efficiency, preferences for sustainable production methods and investment in human development could lead to a strong transition towards a more renewable energy supply, less land use and lower anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2100 than in 2010, even in the absence of explicit climate policies. At the same time, climate policy would still be needed to reduce emissions further, in order to reduce the projected increase of global mean temperature from 3°C (SSP1 reference scenario) to 2 or 1.5°C (in line with current policy targets). The SSP1 storyline could be a basis for further discussions on how climate policy can be combined with achieving other societal goals

ACS Style

Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Elke Stehfest; David E.H.J. Gernaat; Jonathan C. Doelman; Maarten Van Den Berg; Mathijs Harmsen; Harmen Sytze De Boer; Lex F. Bouwman; Vassilis Daioglou; Oreane Y. Edelenbosch; Bastien Girod; Tom Kram; Luis Lassaletta; Paul L. Lucas; Hans van Meijl; Christoph Müller; Bas van Ruijven; Sietske Van Der Sluis; Andrzej Tabeau. Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm. Global Environmental Change 2017, 42, 237 -250.

AMA Style

Detlef P. Van Vuuren, Elke Stehfest, David E.H.J. Gernaat, Jonathan C. Doelman, Maarten Van Den Berg, Mathijs Harmsen, Harmen Sytze De Boer, Lex F. Bouwman, Vassilis Daioglou, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Bastien Girod, Tom Kram, Luis Lassaletta, Paul L. Lucas, Hans van Meijl, Christoph Müller, Bas van Ruijven, Sietske Van Der Sluis, Andrzej Tabeau. Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm. Global Environmental Change. 2017; 42 ():237-250.

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Detlef P. Van Vuuren; Elke Stehfest; David E.H.J. Gernaat; Jonathan C. Doelman; Maarten Van Den Berg; Mathijs Harmsen; Harmen Sytze De Boer; Lex F. Bouwman; Vassilis Daioglou; Oreane Y. Edelenbosch; Bastien Girod; Tom Kram; Luis Lassaletta; Paul L. Lucas; Hans van Meijl; Christoph Müller; Bas van Ruijven; Sietske Van Der Sluis; Andrzej Tabeau. 2017. "Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm." Global Environmental Change 42, no. : 237-250.

Journal article
Published: 01 January 2017 in Global Environmental Change
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Long-term scenarios play an important role in research on global environmental change. The climate change research community is developing new scenarios integrating future changes in climate and society to investigate climate impacts as well as options or mitigation and adaptation. One component of these new scenarios is a set of alternative futures of societal development known as the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The conceptual framework for the design and use of the SSPs calls for the development of global pathways describing the future evolution of key aspects of society that would together imply a range of challenges for mitigating and adapting to climate change. Here we present one component of these pthways: the SSP narratives, a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources. We describe the methods used to develop the narratives as well as how these pathways are hypothesized to produce particular combinations of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Development of the narratives drew on expert opinion to 1) identify key determinants of these challenges that were essential to incorporate in the narratives and (2) combine these elements in the narratives in a manner consistent with scholarship on their inter-relationships. The narratives are intended as a description of plausible future conditions at the level of large world regions that can serve as a basis for integrated scenarios of emissions and land use, as well as climate impact, adaptation and vulnerability analyses

ACS Style

Brian C. O’Neill; Elmar Kriegler; Kristie L. Ebi; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Keywan Riahi; Dale S. Rothman; Bas van Ruijven; Detlef van Vuuren; Joern Birkmann; Kasper Kok; Marc Levy; William Solecki. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change 2017, 42, 169 -180.

AMA Style

Brian C. O’Neill, Elmar Kriegler, Kristie L. Ebi, Eric Kemp-Benedict, Keywan Riahi, Dale S. Rothman, Bas van Ruijven, Detlef van Vuuren, Joern Birkmann, Kasper Kok, Marc Levy, William Solecki. The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century. Global Environmental Change. 2017; 42 ():169-180.

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Brian C. O’Neill; Elmar Kriegler; Kristie L. Ebi; Eric Kemp-Benedict; Keywan Riahi; Dale S. Rothman; Bas van Ruijven; Detlef van Vuuren; Joern Birkmann; Kasper Kok; Marc Levy; William Solecki. 2017. "The roads ahead: Narratives for shared socioeconomic pathways describing world futures in the 21st century." Global Environmental Change 42, no. : 169-180.

Journal article
Published: 01 September 2016 in Resources, Conservation and Recycling
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This paper presents a global simulation-model for the steel and cement industries. The model covers the full modelling chain from economic activity, to materials consumption, trade, technology choice, production capacity, energy use and CO2 emissions. Without climate policy, the future projections based on the SSP2 scenario show a rapid increase in the consumption of steel and cement over the next few decades, after which demand levels are projected to stabilize. This implies that over the scenario period, CO2 emissions are projected to peak in the next decades followed by a decrease below 2010 levels in 2050. There is considerable scope to mitigate CO2 emissions from steel and cement industries, leading to resp. 80–90% and 40–80% reduction below 2010 in 2050 for a high carbon tax of 100 $/tCO2 + 4%pa depending on the availability of Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS).

ACS Style

Bas J. van Ruijven; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Willem Boskaljon; Maarten L. Neelis; Deger Saygin; Martin K. Patel. Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 2016, 112, 15 -36.

AMA Style

Bas J. van Ruijven, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Willem Boskaljon, Maarten L. Neelis, Deger Saygin, Martin K. Patel. Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2016; 112 ():15-36.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bas J. van Ruijven; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Willem Boskaljon; Maarten L. Neelis; Deger Saygin; Martin K. Patel. 2016. "Long-term model-based projections of energy use and CO2 emissions from the global steel and cement industries." Resources, Conservation and Recycling 112, no. : 15-36.

Journal article
Published: 15 July 2016 in Climatic Change
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In this essay I argue that the research on emission scenarios over the past few years has focused on low emission scenarios while producing few medium level emission scenarios. As a consequence, there is a gap in the literature on emission scenarios which prohibits answering several basic questions. This relative lack of medium emission scenarios is problematic for three reasons. First, scientific integrity, as the research community should produce scenarios along the full range of future options. Second, there is currently a very limited number of scenarios that describe real-world conditions of imperfect climate policy combined with technology restrictions. Finally, I observe a growing mismatch between the mitigation research focus on low emission scenarios and research to impacts and adaptation on medium and high emission scenarios. If this trend continues, it will be difficult to draw overarching conclusions from mitigation and impacts research in IPCCs 6th Assessment Report. Therefore, this essay ends with several recommendations for the mitigation research community to stimulate production and publication of medium level emission scenarios.

ACS Style

Bas J. Van Ruijven. Mind the gap – the case for medium level emission scenarios. Climatic Change 2016, 138, 361 -367.

AMA Style

Bas J. Van Ruijven. Mind the gap – the case for medium level emission scenarios. Climatic Change. 2016; 138 (3-4):361-367.

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Bas J. Van Ruijven. 2016. "Mind the gap – the case for medium level emission scenarios." Climatic Change 138, no. 3-4: 361-367.

Journal article
Published: 01 May 2016 in Energy Economics
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This paper provides an overview of the base-year assumptions and core baseline projections for the set of models participating in the LAMP and CLIMACAP projects. We present the range in core baseline projections for Latin America, and identify key differences between model projections including how these projections compare to historic trends. We find relatively large differences across models in base year assumptions related to population, GDP, energy and CO2 emissions due to the use of different data sources, but also conclude that this does not influence the range of projections. We find that population and GDP projections across models span a broad range, comparable to the range represented by the set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Kaya-factor decomposition indicates that the set of core baseline scenarios mirrors trends experienced over the past decades. Emissions in Latin America are projected to rise as result of GDP and population growth and a minor shift in the energy mix toward fossil fuels. Most scenarios assume a somewhat higher GDP growth than historically observed and continued decline of population growth. Minor changes in energy intensity or energy mix are projected over the next few decades.JRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transpor

ACS Style

Bas van Ruijven; Katie Daenzer; Karen Fisher-Vanden; Tom Kober; Sergey Paltsev; Robert Beach; Silvia Liliana Calderon; Katherine Calvin; Maryse Labriet; Alban Kitous; André F P Lucena; Detlef van Vuuren. Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions. Energy Economics 2016, 56, 499 -512.

AMA Style

Bas van Ruijven, Katie Daenzer, Karen Fisher-Vanden, Tom Kober, Sergey Paltsev, Robert Beach, Silvia Liliana Calderon, Katherine Calvin, Maryse Labriet, Alban Kitous, André F P Lucena, Detlef van Vuuren. Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions. Energy Economics. 2016; 56 ():499-512.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bas van Ruijven; Katie Daenzer; Karen Fisher-Vanden; Tom Kober; Sergey Paltsev; Robert Beach; Silvia Liliana Calderon; Katherine Calvin; Maryse Labriet; Alban Kitous; André F P Lucena; Detlef van Vuuren. 2016. "Baseline projections for Latin America: base-year assumptions, key drivers and greenhouse emissions." Energy Economics 56, no. : 499-512.