Global climate models (GCMs) are used to analyze future climate change. However, the observed data of a specified region may differ significantly from the model since the GCM data are simulated on a global scale. To solve this problem, previous studies have used downscaling methods such as quantile mapping (QM) to correct bias in GCM precipitation. However, this method cannot be considered when certain variables affect the observation data. Therefore, the aim of this study is to propose a novel method that uses a convolution neural network (CNN) considering teleconnection. This new method considers how the global climate phenomena affect the precipitation data of a target area. In addition, various meteorological variables related to precipitation were used as explanatory variables for the CNN model. In this study, QM and the CNN models were applied to calibrate the spatial bias of GCM data for three precipitation stations in Korea (Incheon, Seoul, and Suwon), and the results were compared. According to the results, the QM method effectively corrected the range of precipitation, but the pattern of precipitation was the same at the three stations. Meanwhile, for the CNN model, the range and pattern of precipitation were corrected better than the QM method. The quantitative evaluation selected the optimal downscaling model, and the CNN model had the best performance (correlation coefficient (CC): 69% on average, root mean squared error (RMSE): 117 mm on average). Therefore, the new method suggested in this study is expected to have high utility in forecasting climate change. Finally, as a result of forecasting for future precipitation in 2100 via the CNN model, the average annual rainfall increased by 17% on average compared to the reference data.

Airlines provide one of the most popular and important transportation services for passengers. While the importance of the airline industry is rising, flight cancellations are also increasing due to abnormal weather factors, such as rainfall and wind speed. Although previous studies on cancellations due to weather factors considered both aircraft and weather factors concurrently, the complex network studies only treated the aircraft factor with a single-layer network. Therefore, the aim of this study was to apply a multilayer complex network (MCN) method that incorporated three different factors, namely, aircraft, rainfall, and wind speed, to investigate aircraft cancellations at 14 airports in the Republic of Korea. The results showed that rainfall had a greater impact on aircraft cancellations compared with wind speed. To find out the most important node in the cancellation, we applied centrality analysis based on information entropy. According to the centrality analysis, Jeju Airport was identified as the most influential node since it has a high demand for aircraft. Also, we showed that characteristics and factors of aircraft cancellation should be appropriately defined by links in the MCN. Furthermore, we verified the applicability of the MCN method in the fields of aviation and meteorology. It is expected that the suggested methodology in this study can help to understand aircraft cancellation due to weather factors.

Temperature differences between the atmosphere and river water allow rivers to be used as a hydrothermal energy source. River-water heat pump systems are a relatively non-invasive renewable energy source; however, effluent discharged from the heat pump can cause downstream temperature changes which may impact sensitive fluvial ecosystems. The temperature change associated with heat pump discharge in a river reach was examined using the heat transfer equation in a previous study, but not using models. There were also no studies on the impact of temperature change due to heat pump discharge on river ecosystem elements such as endangered fishes. Therefore, in this study, the water temperature recovery distance of effluent was estimated for a river section in the Han River Basin, Korea, using the heat transfer equation and the Environmental Fluid Dynamic Code (EFDC) model. The water temperature recovery distance was estimated to be 9.7 km using the heat transfer equation and 5 km using the EFDC model in summer. It was also estimated to be 4.5 km using the heat transfer equation and 6.7 km using the EFDC model in winter. Results showed that the water temperature recovery distance results estimated by the heat transfer equation had greater variation than the EFDC model. The water temperature recovery distance could also be used as an objective indicator to decide the reuse of downstream river water. Furthermore, as the river system was found to support an endangered fish species that is sensitive to water environment changes, care should be taken to exclude the habitats of protected species affected by water temperatures within water temperature recovery distance.

Small hydropower (SHP) plants are advantageous as they have a short construction period and can be easily maintained. They also have a higher energy density than other alternative energy sources as environmentally-friendly energy sources. In general, hydropower potential is estimated based on the discharge in the river basin, and the discharge can be obtained from the stage station in the gaged basin. However, if there is no station (i.e., ungaged basin) or no sufficient discharge data, the discharge should be estimated based on rainfall data. The flow duration characteristic model is the most widely used method for the estimation of mean annual discharge because of its simplicity and it consists of rainfall, basin area, and runoff coefficient. Due to the characteristics of hydroelectric power depending on the discharge, there is a limit to guaranteeing the accuracy of estimating the generated power with only one method of the flow duration characteristic model. Therefore, this study assumes the gaged basins of the three hydropower plants of Deoksong, Hanseok, and Socheon in Korea exist as ungaged basins and the river discharges were simulated using the Kajiyama formula, modified-TPM(Two-Parameter Monthly) model, and Tank model for a comparison with the flow duration characteristics model. Furthermore, to minimize the uncertainty of the simulated discharge, four blending techniques of simple average method, MMSE(Multi-Model Super Ensemble), SMA(Simple Model Average), and MSE(Mean Square Error) were applied. As for the results, the obtained discharges from the four models were compared with the observed discharge and we noted that the discharges by the Kajiyama formula and modified-TPM model were better fitted with the observations than the discharge by the flow duration characteristics model. However, the result by the Tank model was not well fitted with the observation. Additionally, when we investigated the four blending techniques, we concluded that the MSE technique was the most appropriate for the discharge simulation of the ungaged basin. This study proposed a methodology to estimate power generation potential more accurately by applying discharge simulation models that have not been previously applied to the estimation of SHP potential and blending techniques were also used to minimize the uncertainty of the simulated discharge. The methodology proposed in this study is expected to be applicable for the estimation of SHP potential in ungaged basins.

The interest in renewable energy to replace fossil fuel is increasing as the problem caused by climate change become more severe. Small hydropower (SHP) is evaluated as a resource with high development value because of its high energy density compared to other renewable energy sources. SHP may be an attractive and sustainable power generation environmental perspective because of its potential to be found in small rivers and streams. The power generation potential could be estimated based on the discharge in the river basin. Since the river discharge depends on the climate conditions, the hydropower generation potential changes sensitively according to climate variability. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze the SHP potential in consideration of future climate change. In this study, the future prospect of SHP potential is simulated for the period of 2021 to 2100 considering the climate change in three hydropower plants of Deoksong, Hanseok, and Socheon stations, Korea. As the results, SHP potential for the near future (2021 to 2040) shows a tendency to be increased and the highest increase is 23.4% at the Deoksong SPH plant. Through the result of future prospect, we have shown that hydroelectric power generation capacity or SHP potential will be increased in the future. Therefore, we believe that it is necessary to revitalize the development of SHP in order to expand the use of renewable energy. Also, a methodology presented in this study could be used for the future prospect of the small hydropower potential.

Previous study on natural disaster events has been conducted under the assumption that each event is independent of others, which underestimates the risk of natural disasters by ignoring interactions between events. To solve this problem, the concept of compound natural disaster (CND) which is the combination of events has been proposed; however, there is no quantitative method for defining CND. The aims of this study are to examine the estimation methods for IETD (Inter-Event Time Definition), which separates continuous rainfalls into independent rainfall events, and to define NIETD (Natural disaster Inter-Event Time Definition), which is a criterion for determining the independence of natural disasters. This study used the method of average annual number of events for estimating NIETD. Two natural disasters can be defined as CND if the duration between them is less than the NIETD. We estimated the NIETD as 8 days using natural disasters that occurred in South Korea and identified a total of 89 CNDs of 14 different types such as consecutive rainfall events. The largest number of CNDs was caused by the combination of rainfall and typhoon, which also resulted in the most damage. To examine the randomness of event occurrences, we applied a bootstrapping approach and found that there is no evidence of randomness. The frequency analysis showed that CNDs consisting of rainfall and typhoon (7.6years), and consecutive rainfalls (9.4years) had overwhelmingly more frequent occurrences than other types. The CND definition and concept proposed in this study could be useful in the research on CND.