Erman Sumirat

Erman Sumirat


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

9Years (2018-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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1 September 2023 in European Journal of Business and Management Research
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
QYQiva Chandra Mahaputera Meizon Yusmar
Qiva Chandra Mahaputera Meizon Yusmar
ESErman Sumirat
Erman Sumirat
OSOktofa Yudha Sudrajad
Oktofa Yudha Sudrajad
The increments of environmental, social, and governance-based investments have been seen recently by institutions or retail investors. The growth has increased rapidly since 2012. Some research gives a positive correlation between the ESG factor represented by ESG rating and company performance. PT Pertamina Geothermal Energy, Tbk. (PGEO), IPO on 24th February 2023 has outstanding ESG performance. It was audited by Sustainable Fitch and got the highest second rank, 77 out of 100 points. Not only is it exceptional ESG performance, but it also has excellent business performance. PGEO started its journey of geothermal utilization in 1974, upon discovering 70 geothermal areas in Indonesia as a sub-business of PT Pertamina EP. PGEO was established in 2006 to continue the efforts to produce clean and environmentally friendly energy, and as of now, it has contributed 82% of the installed geothermal energy capacity in Indonesia. It has the world’s most extensive geothermal installed capacity by December 2021 and promises to expand even more significantly in its prospectus. Investors should consider their value rather than positive sentiment as an investment decision. Then, this study determines whether the PGEO price is undervalued or overvalued considering their project expansion and ESG factor. This study utilizes secondary data from prospectuses, financial statements, annual reports, sustainability reports, company-published documents, and data from IDX.co.id and stockbit.com. The data was gathered and processed to understand the need to expand, analyze its financial performance, and value the company. The author considers company ESG performance to develop financial projections. To fulfill company promises in expansion and stay sustained by adding more production, injection, and startup wells, it needs 1.588.612.527 USD using ESG-based financing. The historical financial performance of PGEO is quite good, but the investor should be careful about its liquidity since the current liability is more significant than its current asset. Based on the calculation of absolute valuation using discounted cash flow, the value of each share of PGEO is Rp12.686,00, which is undervalued, and its IPO price is Rp875,00. Based on relative valuation using PER to its peers and average industry, PGEO’s price is overvalued. The PGEO price that pars with the industry average is Rp490,00. The author can determine the fundamental value of PGEO.

1 December 2023 in Journal of Economics and Business UBS
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
ESErman Sumirat
Erman Sumirat
DHDzikri Firmansyah Hakam
Dzikri Firmansyah Hakam
IFIrfan Sihab Budin F
Irfan Sihab Budin F
This research investigates the impact of the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine on the profitability and valuation of publicly listed Indonesian coal companies. Leveraging panel regression, the study offers empirically grounded perspectives on how an acute geopolitical conflict disrupted global energy trade flows to influence key financial metrics of a major exported commodity. Specifically, the analysis focuses on five leading Indonesian coal miners over 2019-2022. Profitability dynamics are examined through gross profit margins while valuations reliance on price-to-earnings ratios. Control variables capture coal prices, a conflict indicator, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rate fluctuations. Results reveal the global coal price spike had a statistically significant positive impact on profit margins, affirming the turmoil's commodity super-cycle upside. However, valuations diverged from earnings trends, suggesting more complex reassessments of long-term prospects. The conflict itself directly affected profitability but not valuations. This research contributes timely empirical insights on an understudied intersection of geopolitics, commodity markets, and emerging market equities. Evidence-based quantification of financial linkages and risk transmission inform both theory and practice. Strategic decision makers obtain granular clarity regarding exposures and opportunities during energy market turmoil.

14 June 2025 in Jurnal Impresi Indonesia
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
AJAstrid Laregan Jota
Astrid Laregan Jota
ESErman Sumirat
Erman Sumirat
SSSubiakto Sukarno
Subiakto Sukarno
This study examines the financial performance and stock valuation of PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR.JK) amid mounting economic and competitive challenges in Indonesia's fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector from 2020 to 2024. Unilever Indonesia, a market leader in household and personal care products, experienced deteriorating financial performance during this period, evidenced by declining revenue, profit margins, and market valuation. Macroeconomic pressures, including inflation, rupiah depreciation, rising operating costs, and shifting consumer preferences, have directly affected profitability and investor confidence. The company's net profit declined from IDR 5.8 trillion in 2021 to IDR 3.4 trillion in 2024, and its revenue dropped from IDR 38.6 trillion to IDR 35.1 trillion. The results indicate that although Unilever Indonesia has strong brand equity and a nationwide distribution network, the company suffers from supply chain inefficiencies, a high dependency on imported raw materials, and a limited ability to respond to rapidly evolving consumer behavior. Its market share has significantly declined, exacerbated by geopolitical boycotts and intensifying competition from nimble local companies such as Indofood CBP, Kino, and Mayora Indah. Macroeconomic variables, particularly inflation and exchange rate volatility, were found to have a statistically significant influence on financial performance and stock price volatility. Valuation analysis reveals that Unilever's intrinsic value, estimated through Discounted Cash Flow and Dividend Discount Model, exceeds its current market price. This indicates potential undervaluation if the company achieves operational improvements and strategic realignment. Based on these findings, the strategic recommendations proposed are diversifying the supply chain to reduce exposure to imported inputs, accelerating digital transformation across marketing and distribution, expanding into high-growth categories aligned with health and wellness trends, strengthening risk management frameworks to hedge macroeconomic shocks, and restructuring cost base to improve long-term profitability .

5 January 2020 in European Journal of Business and Management Research
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
PWPutu Bagus Adhi Wijaya
Putu Bagus Adhi Wijaya
ESErman Sumirat
Erman Sumirat
Cigarette industry in Indonesia had contributed around 8% to the state revenue in 2018, and this number are expected to increase in 2020 due to higher excise tax rate for cigarette industry which believed can boost the state revenue. However, the cigarette’s excise tax hike that will be effective in January 1st, 2020 will have significant impact to all of the cigarette companies in Indonesia. The biggest cost of goods sold component of cigarette companies were the excise tax expense, thus, a significant increase on excise tax will reduce the company’s profitability. The significant decrease in company’s profitability could affect the company’s stock performance. In order to help the investors how to react to this situation, the intrinsic valuation of the company is required. Evaluating the company’s financial performance in the past five years and conducting absolute or often called intrinsic valuation of HMSP are believed to be important in order to help the investors how to act while the cigarette companies’ stock was all tumbled since the beginning of the year. This study examined absolute valuation of HMSP using the FCFE model. Absolute valuation models were calculated and had suggested that the current stock price of IDR 1,900 of HMSP is undervalued. The intrinsic value calculated from absolute valuation models was IDR 2,242.71. FCFE models show significantly high intrinsic value for HMSP, with potential return above 15%, it should attract the prospective investors to buy the company’s stock.

3 October 2018 in INOVASI: Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan, dan Manajemen
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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EHErdiyan Krisnadi Hasda
Erdiyan Krisnadi Hasda
ESErman Sumirat
Erman Sumirat
This study is conducted to carry out the risk management process in the logistics department of the electricity company unit, which has the main duties in managing electricity transmission assets, controlling investment and logistics transmission, and maintaining transmission assets. The risk management process in this study was prepared as a step in shaping the risk profile of business processes in the logistics field to avoid the failure of business processes that resulted in unavailbility of logistics material, which could impact the electricity transmission. This study uses the AS/NZS ISO 31000:2009 Risk Management Standard framework. Calculation of risk priorities is using Analytical Hierarchy Process, based on a questionnaire to experts in the field of company logistics. From the calculation using AHP, Work Accident (HR2) has been identified as the most vulnerable risk among others risk factors.

7 December 2024 in International Journal Of Humanities Education and Social Sciences (IJHESS)
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
RNRyan Novryansyah
Ryan Novryansyah
ESErman Sumirat
Erman Sumirat
The study aims to provide a comprehensive comparative analysis of active vs. passive investment strategies in the context of pension funds, aimed at providing insights into the dynamic discourse surrounding active and passive investment. Through an exploration of empirical data and scientific discourses, the study highlights the potential benefits and limitations of each strategy, ultimately contributing to the informed decision-making process for pension fund managers. The study will also use the Markowitz model and efficient boundary methods to analyze and optimize investment strategies, focusing on risk, cost and cost management, and investment strategy. The analysis will also provide insights that can be done for fund managers to target higher investment returns, in terms of influencing company decisions and behavior to implement long-term investment strategies by reallocating some assets to other investment strategies