Thomas Shaw

Dr. Thomas Shaw


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

11Years (2016-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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4 December 2023 in Nature Geoscience
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Journal Article
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FSFranco Salerno
Franco Salerno
NGNicolas Guyennon
Nicolas Guyennon
KYKun Yang
Kun Yang
TSThomas Shaw
Thomas Shaw
CLChanggui Lin
Changgui Lin
FPFrancesca Pellicciotti
Francesca Pellicciotti
Understanding the response of Himalayan glaciers to global warming is vital because of their role as a water source for the Asian subcontinent. However, great uncertainties still exist on the climate drivers of past and present glacier changes across scales. Here, we analyse continuous hourly climate station data from a glacierized elevation (Pyramid station, Mount Everest) since 1994 together with other ground observations and climate reanalysis. We show that a decrease in maximum air temperature and precipitation occurred during the last three decades at Pyramid in response to global warming. Reanalysis data suggest a broader occurrence of this effect in the glacierized areas of the Himalaya. We hypothesize that the counterintuitive cooling is caused by enhanced sensible heat exchange and the associated increase in glacier katabatic wind, which draws cool air downward from higher elevations. The stronger katabatic winds have also lowered the elevation of local wind convergence, thereby diminishing precipitation in glacial areas and negatively affecting glacier mass balance. This local cooling may have partially preserved glaciers from melting and could help protect the periglacial environment.

5 May 2022 in The Cryosphere
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SFStefan Fugger
Stefan Fugger
CFCatriona L. Fyffe
Catriona L. Fyffe
SFSimone Fatichi
Simone Fatichi
EMEvan Miles
Evan Miles
MMMichael McCarthy
Michael McCarthy
FPFrancesca Pellicciotti
Francesca Pellicciotti
The Indian and East Asian summer monsoons shape the melt and accumulation patterns of glaciers in High Mountain Asia in complex ways due to the interaction of persistent cloud cover, large temperature ranges, high atmospheric water content and high precipitation rates. Glacier energy- and mass-balance modelling using in situ measurements offers insights into the ways in which surface processes are shaped by climatic regimes. In this study, we use a full energy- and mass-balance model and seven on-glacier automatic weather station datasets from different parts of the Central and Eastern Himalaya to investigate how monsoon conditions influence the glacier surface energy and mass balance. In particular, we look at how debris-covered and debris-free glaciers respond differently to monsoonal conditions. The radiation budget primarily controls the melt of clean-ice glaciers, but turbulent fluxes play an important role in modulating the melt energy on debris-covered glaciers. The sensible heat flux decreases during core monsoon, but the latent heat flux cools the surface due to evaporation of liquid water. This interplay of radiative and turbulent fluxes causes debris-covered glacier melt rates to stay almost constant through the different phases of the monsoon. Ice melt under thin debris, on the other hand, is amplified by both the dark surface and the turbulent fluxes, which intensify melt during monsoon through surface heating and condensation. Pre-monsoon snow cover can considerably delay melt onset and have a strong impact on the seasonal mass balance. Intermittent monsoon snow cover lowers the melt rates at high elevation. This work is fundamental to the understanding of the present and future Himalayan cryosphere and water budget, while informing and motivating further glacier- and catchment-scale research using process-based models.

26 November 2018 in Hydrological Processes
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FBFlavia Burger
Flavia Burger
ÁAÁlvaro Ayala
Álvaro Ayala
DFDavid Farias
David Farias
TSThomas Shaw
Thomas Shaw
Shelley MacDonellShelley MacDonell
Shelley MacDonell
FPFrancesca Pellicciotti
Francesca Pellicciotti
We present a field‐data rich modelling analysis to reconstruct the climatic forcing, glacier response, and runoff generation from a high‐elevation catchment in central Chile over the period 2000–2015 to provide insights into the differing contributions of debris‐covered and debris‐free glaciers under current and future changing climatic conditions. Model simulations with the physically based glacio‐hydrological model TOPKAPI‐ETH reveal a period of neutral or slightly positive mass balance between 2000 and 2010, followed by a transition to increasingly large annual mass losses, associated with a recent mega drought. Mass losses commence earlier, and are more severe, for a heavily debris‐covered glacier, most likely due to its strong dependence on snow avalanche accumulation, which has declined in recent years. Catchment runoff shows a marked decreasing trend over the study period, but with high interannual variability directly linked to winter snow accumulation, and high contribution from ice melt in dry periods and drought conditions. The study demonstrates the importance of incorporating local‐scale processes such as snow avalanche accumulation and spatially variable debris thickness, in understanding the responses of different glacier types to climate change. We highlight the increased dependency of runoff from high Andean catchments on the diminishing resource of glacier ice during dry years.

3 February 2020 in Water Resources Research
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Journal Article
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TSThomas Shaw
Thomas Shaw
Simon GascoinSimon Gascoin
Simon Gascoin
PMPablo A. Mendoza
Pablo A. Mendoza
FPFrancesca Pellicciotti
Francesca Pellicciotti
JMJames McPhee
James McPhee
Obtaining detailed information about high mountain snowpacks is often limited by insufficient ground‐based observations and uncertainty in the (re)distribution of solid precipitation. We utilize high‐resolution optical images from Pléiades satellites to generate a snow depth map, at a spatial resolution of 4 m, for a high mountain catchment of central Chile. Results are negatively biased (median difference of −0.22 m) when compared against observations from a terrestrial Light Detection And Ranging scan, though replicate general snow depth variability well. Additionally, the Pléiades dataset is subject to data gaps (17% of total pixels), negative values for shallow snow (12%), and noise on slopes >40–50° (2%). We correct and filter the Pléiades snow depths using surface classification techniques of snow‐free areas and a random forest model for data gap filling. Snow depths (with an estimated error of ~0.36 m) average 1.66 m and relate well to topographical parameters such as elevation and northness in a similar way to previous studies. However, estimations of snow depth based upon topography (TOPO) or physically based modeling (DBSM) cannot resolve localized processes (i.e., avalanching or wind scouring) that are detected by Pléiades, even when forced with locally calibrated data. Comparing these alternative model approaches to corrected Pléiades snow depths reveals total snow volume differences between −28% (DBSM) and +54% (TOPO) for the catchment and large differences across most elevation bands. Pléiades represents an important contribution to understanding snow accumulation at sparsely monitored catchments, though ideally requires a careful systematic validation procedure to identify catchment‐scale biases and errors in the snow depth derivation.

17 December 2020 in Journal of Glaciology
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TSThomas Shaw
Thomas Shaw
GUGenesis Ulloa
Genesis Ulloa
DFDavid Farías-Barahona
David Farías-Barahona
RFRodrigo Fernandez
Rodrigo Fernandez
JLJose M. Lattus
Jose M. Lattus
JMJames McPhee
James McPhee
Surface albedo typically dominates the mass balance of mountain glaciers, though long-term trends and patterns of glacier albedo are seldom explored. We calculated broadband shortwave albedo for glaciers in the central Chilean Andes (33–34°S) using end-of-summer Landsat scenes between 1986 and 2020. We found a high inter-annual variability of glacier-wide albedo that is largely a function of the glacier fractional snow-covered area and the total precipitation of the preceding hydrological year (up to 69% of the inter-annual variance explained). Under the 2010–2020 ‘Mega Drought’ period, the mean albedo, regionally averaged ranging from ~0.25–0.5, decreased by −0.05 on average relative to 1986–2009, with the greatest reduction occurring 3500–5000 m a.s.l. In 2020, differences relative to 1986–2009 were −0.14 on average as a result of near-complete absence of late summer snow cover and the driest hydrological year since the Landsat observation period began (~90% reduction of annual precipitation relative to the 1986–2009 period). We found statistically significant, negative trends in glacier ice albedo of up to −0.03 per decade, a trend that would have serious implications for the future water security of the region, because glacier ice melt acts to buffer streamflow shortages under severe drought conditions.

7 October 2022 in Earth's Future
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Journal Article
Open access
MMMichael McCarthy
Michael McCarthy
FMFabienne Meier
Fabienne Meier
SFSimone Fatichi
Simone Fatichi
BSBenjamin Stocker
Benjamin Stocker
TSThomas Shaw
Thomas Shaw
FPFrancesca Pellicciotti
Francesca Pellicciotti
The current Chilean megadrought has led to acute water shortages in central Chile since 2010. Glaciers have provided vital fresh water to the region's rivers, but the quantity, timing and sustainability of that provision remain unclear. Here we combine in‐situ, remote sensing and climate reanalysis data to show that from 2010 to 2018 during the megadrought, unsustainable imbalance ablation of glaciers (ablation not balanced by new snowfall) strongly buffered the late‐summer discharge of the Maipo River, a primary source of water to Santiago. If there had been no glaciers, water availability would have been reduced from December through May, with a 31 ± 19% decrease during March. Our results indicate that while the annual contributions of imbalance ablation to river discharge during the megadrought have been small compared to those from precipitation and sustainable balance ablation, they have nevertheless been a substantial input to a hydrological system that was already experiencing high water stress. The water‐equivalent volume of imbalance ablation generated in the Maipo Basin between 2010 and 2018 was 740 × 106 m3 (19 ± 12 mm yr−1), approximately 3.4 times the capacity of the basin's El Yeso Reservoir. This is equivalent to 14% of Santiago's potable water use in that time, while total glacier ablation was equivalent to 59%. We show that glacier retreat will exacerbate river discharge deficits and further jeopardize water availability in central Chile if precipitation deficits endure, and conjecture that these effects will be amplified by climatic warming.