Glaciers in High Mountain Asia generate meltwater that supports the water needs of 250 million people, but current knowledge of annual accumulation and ablation is limited to sparse field measurements biased in location and glacier size. Here, we present altitudinally-resolved specific mass balances (surface, internal, and basal combined) for 5527 glaciers in High Mountain Asia for 2000–2016, derived by correcting observed glacier thinning patterns for mass redistribution due to ice flow. We find that 41% of glaciers accumulated mass over less than 20% of their area, and only 60% ± 10% of regional annual ablation was compensated by accumulation. Even without 21^stcentury warming, 21% ± 1% of ice volume will be lost by 2100 due to current climatic-geometric imbalance, representing a reduction in glacier ablation into rivers of 28% ± 1%. The ablation of glaciers in the Himalayas and Tien Shan was mostly unsustainable and ice volume in these regions will reduce by at least 30% by 2100. The most important and vulnerable glacier-fed river basins (Amu Darya, Indus, Syr Darya, Tarim Interior) were supplied with >50% sustainable glacier ablation but will see long-term reductions in ice mass and glacier meltwater supply regardless of the Karakoram Anomaly.

Glaciers are indicators of ongoing anthropogenic climate change¹. Their melting leads to increased local geohazards², and impacts marine³ and terrestrial^4,5 ecosystems, regional freshwater resources⁶, and both global water and energy cycles^7,8. Together with the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, glaciers are essential drivers of present^9,10 and future^11–13 sea-level rise. Previous assessments of global glacier mass changes have been hampered by spatial and temporal limitations and the heterogeneity of existing data series^14–16. Here we show in an intercomparison exercise that glaciers worldwide lost 273 ± 16 gigatonnes in mass annually from 2000 to 2023, with an increase of 36 ± 10% from the first (2000–2011) to the second (2012–2023) half of the period. Since 2000, glaciers have lost between 2% and 39% of their ice regionally and about 5% globally. Glacier mass loss is about 18% larger than the loss from the Greenland Ice Sheet and more than twice that from the Antarctic Ice Sheet¹⁷. Our results arise from a scientific community effort to collect, homogenize, combine and analyse glacier mass changes from in situ and remote-sensing observations. Although our estimates are in agreement with findings from previous assessments^14–16 at a global scale, we found some large regional deviations owing to systematic differences among observation methods. Our results provide a refined baseline for better understanding observational differences and for calibrating model ensembles^12,16,18, which will help to narrow projection uncertainty for the twenty-first century^11,12,18.

Supraglacial debris strongly modulates glacier melt rates and can be decisive for ice dynamics and mountain hydrology. It is ubiquitous in High-Mountain Asia, yet because its thickness and supply rate from local topography are poorly known, our ability to forecast regional glacier change and streamflow is limited. Here we combined remote sensing and numerical modelling to resolve supraglacial debris thickness by altitude for 4689 glaciers in High-Mountain Asia, and debris-supply rate to 4141 of those glaciers. Our results reveal extensively thin supraglacial debris and high spatial variability in both debris thickness and supply rate. Debris-supply rate increases with the temperature and slope of debris-supply slopes regionally, and debris thickness increases as ice flow decreases locally. Our centennial-scale estimates of debris-supply rate are typically an order of magnitude or more lower than millennial-scale estimates of headwall-erosion rate from Beryllium-10 cosmogenic nuclides, potentially reflecting episodic debris supply to the region’s glaciers.

Melt from supraglacial ice cliffs is an important contributor to the mass loss of debris-covered glaciers. However, ice cliff contribution is difficult to quantify as they are highly dynamic features, and the paucity of observations of melt rates and their variability leads to large modelling uncertainties. We quantify monsoon season melt and 3D evolution of four ice cliffs over two debris-covered glaciers in High Mountain Asia (Langtang Glacier, Nepal, and 24K Glacier, China) at very high resolution using terrestrial photogrammetry applied to imagery captured from time-lapse cameras installed on lateral moraines. We derive weekly flow-corrected digital elevation models (DEMs) of the glacier surface with a maximum vertical bias of ±0.2 m for Langtang Glacier and ±0.05 m for 24K Glacier and use change detection to determine distributed melt rates at the surfaces of the ice cliffs throughout the study period. We compare the measured melt patterns with those derived from a 3D energy balance model to derive the contribution of the main energy fluxes. We find that ice cliff melt varies considerably throughout the melt season, with maximum melt rates of 5 to 8 cm d⁻¹, and their average melt rates are 11–14 (Langtang) and 4.5 (24K) times higher than the surrounding debris-covered ice. Our results highlight the influence of redistributed supraglacial debris on cliff melt. At both sites, ice cliff albedo is influenced by the presence of thin debris at the ice cliff surface, which is largely controlled on 24K Glacier by liquid precipitation events that wash away this debris. Slightly thicker or patchy debris reduces melt by 1–3 cm d⁻¹ at all sites. Ultimately, our observations show a strong spatio-temporal variability in cliff area at each site, which is controlled by supraglacial streams and ponds and englacial cavities that promote debris slope destabilisation and the lateral expansion of the cliffs. These findings highlight the need to better represent processes of debris redistribution in ice cliff models, to in turn improve estimates of ice cliff contribution to glacier melt and the long-term geomorphological evolution of debris-covered glacier surfaces.

Ice cliff distribution plays a major role in determining the melt of debris‐covered glaciers but its controls are largely unknown. We assembled a data set of 37,537 ice cliffs and determined their characteristics across 86 debris‐covered glaciers within High Mountain Asia (HMA). We find that 38.9% of the cliffs are stream‐influenced, 19.5% pond‐influenced and 19.7% are crevasse‐originated. Surface velocity is the main predictor of cliff distribution at both local and glacier scale, indicating its dependence on the dynamic state and hence evolution stage of debris‐covered glacier tongues. Supraglacial ponds contribute to maintaining cliffs in areas of thicker debris, but this is only possible if water accumulates at the surface. Overall, total cliff density decreases exponentially with debris thickness as soon as the debris layer reaches a thickness of over 10 cm.

High Mountain Asia (HMA) is among the most vulnerable water towers globally and yet future projections of water availability in and from its high‐mountain catchments remain uncertain, as their hydrologic response to ongoing environmental changes is complex. Mechanistic modeling approaches incorporating cryospheric, hydrological, and vegetation processes in high spatial, temporal, and physical detail have never been applied for high‐elevation catchments of HMA. We use a land surface model at high spatial and temporal resolution (100 m and hourly) to simulate the coupled dynamics of energy, water, and vegetation for the 350 km² Langtang catchment (Nepal). We compare our model outputs for one hydrological year against a large set of observations to gain insight into the partitioning of the water balance at the subseasonal scale and across elevation bands. During the simulated hydrological year, we find that evapotranspiration is a key component of the total water balance, as it causes about the equivalent of 20% of all the available precipitation or 154% of the water production from glacier melt in the basin to return directly to the atmosphere. The depletion of the cryospheric water budget is dominated by snow melt, but at high elevations is primarily dictated by snow and ice sublimation. Snow sublimation is the dominant vapor flux (49%) at the catchment scale, accounting for the equivalent of 11% of snowfall, 17% of snowmelt, and 75% of ice melt, respectively. We conclude that simulations should consider sublimation and other evaporative fluxes explicitly, as otherwise water balance estimates can be ill‐quantified.