Projections for the period 1995–2029 suggest that the number of men dying from mesothelioma in Western Europe each year will almost double over the next 20 years, from 5000 in 1998 to about 9000 around 2018, and then decline, with a total of about a quarter of a million deaths over the next 35 years. The highest risk will be suffered by men born around 1945–50, of whom about 1 in 150 will die of mesothelioma. Asbestos use in Western Europe remained high until 1980, and substantial quantities are still used in several European countries. These projections are based on the fit of a simple age and birth cohort model to male pleural cancer mortality from 1970 to 1989 for six countries (Britain, France, Germany, Italy, The Netherlands and Switzerland) which together account for three-quarters of the population of Western Europe. The model was tested by comparing observed and predicted numbers of deaths for the period 1990–94. The ratio of mesothelioma to recorded pleural cancer mortality has been 1.6:1 in Britain but was assumed to be 1:1 in other countries.
15 February 2002 in American Journal of Epidemiology
The authors investigated the dose-effect relation between alcohol drinking and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in men and women separately, also considering hepatitis B and hepatitis C virus infections. They enrolled 464 subjects (380 men) with a first diagnosis of HCC as cases and 824 subjects (686 men) unaffected by hepatic diseases as controls; all were hospitalized in Brescia, northern Italy, in 1995–2000. Spline regression models showed a steady linear increase in the odds ratio of HCC for increasing alcohol intake, for values of >60 g of ethanol per day, with no substantial differences between men and women. Duration of drinking and age at start had no effect on the odds ratio when alcohol intake was considered. Former drinkers who had stopped 1–10 years previously had a higher risk of HCC than current drinkers did. The effect of alcohol drinking was evident even in the absence of hepatitis B or hepatitis C virus infection. In addition, a synergism between alcohol drinking and either infection was found, with approximately a twofold increase in the odds ratio for each hepatitis virus infection for drinkers of >60 g per day.
15 October 1989 in International Journal of Cancer