Soil and water acidification was internationally recognised as a severe environmental problem in the late 1960s. The interest in establishing “critical loads” led to a peak in weathering research in the 1980s and 1990s, since base cation weathering is the long-term counterbalance to acidification pressure. Assessments of weathering rates and associated uncertainties have recently become an area of renewed research interest, this time due to demand for forest residues to provide renewable bioenergy. Increased demand for forest fuels increases the risk of depleting the soils of base cations produced in situ by weathering. This is the background to the research programme Quantifying Weathering Rates for Sustainable Forestry (QWARTS), which ran from 2012 to 2019. The programme involved research groups working at different scales, from laboratory experiments to modelling. The aims of this study were to (1) investigate the variation in published weathering rates of base cations from different approaches in Sweden, with consideration of the key uncertainties for each method; (2) assess the robustness of the results in relation to sustainable forestry; and (3) discuss the results in relation to new insights from the QWARTS programme and propose ways to further reduce uncertainties. In the study we found that the variation in estimated weathering rates at single-site level was large, but still most sites could be placed reliably in broader classes of weathering rates. At the regional level, the results from the different approaches were in general agreement. Comparisons with base cation losses after stem-only and whole-tree harvesting showed sites where whole-tree harvesting was clearly not sustainable and other sites where variation in weathering rates from different approaches obscured the overall balance. Clear imbalances appeared mainly after whole-tree harvesting in spruce forests in southern and central Sweden. Based on the research findings in the QWARTS programme, it was concluded that the PROFILE/ForSAFE family of models provides the most important fundamental understanding of the contribution of weathering to long-term availability of base cations to support forest growth. However, these approaches should be continually assessed against other approaches. Uncertainties in the model approaches can be further reduced, mainly by finding ways to reduce uncertainties in input data on soil texture and associated hydrological parameters but also by developing the models, e.g. to better represent biological feedbacks under the influence of climate change.

Nitrogen (N) fertilization in forests has the potential to increase tree growth and carbon (C) sequestration, but it also means a risk of N leaching. Dynamic models can, if the important processes are well described, play an important role in assessing benefits and risks of nitrogen fertilization. The aim of this study was to test if the ForSAFE model is able to simulate correctly the effects of N fertilization when considering different levels of N availability in the forest. The model was applied for three sites in Sweden, representing low, medium and high nitrogen deposition. Simulations were performed for scenarios with and without fertilization. The effect of N fertilization on tree growth was largest at the low deposition site, whereas the effect on N leaching was more pronounced at the high deposition site. For soil organic carbon (SOC) the effects were generally small, but in the second forest rotation SOC was slightly higher after fertilization, especially at the low deposition site. The ForSAFE simulations largely confirm the N saturation theory which state that N will not be retained in the forest when the ecosystem is N saturated, and we conclude that the model can be a useful tool in assessing effects of N fertilization.

Climate change is generally expected to have a positive effect on weathering rates, due to the strong temperature dependence of the weathering process. Important feedback mechanisms such as changes in soil moisture, tree growth and organic matter decomposition can affect the response of weathering rates to climate change. In this study, the dynamic forest ecosystem model ForSAFE, with mechanistic descriptions of tree growth, organic matter decomposition, weathering, hydrology and ion exchange processes, is used to investigate the effects of future climate scenarios on base cation weathering rates. In total, 544 productive coniferous forest sites from the Swedish National Forest Inventory are modelled, and differences in weathering responses to changes in climate from two Global Climate Models are investigated. The study shows that weathering rates at the simulated sites are likely to increase, but not to the extent predicted by a direct response to elevated air temperatures. Besides the result that increases in soil temperatures are less evident than those in air temperature, the study shows that soil moisture availability has a strong potential to limit the expected response to increased temperature. While changes in annual precipitation may not indicate further risk for more severe water deficits, seasonal differences show a clear difference between winters and summers. Taking into account the seasonal variation, the study shows that reduced soil water availability in the summer seasons will strongly limit the expected gain in weathering associated with higher temperatures.