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Dr. Salim Belyazid
Stockholm University, Department of Physical Geography

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0 Chemical Engineering
0 System Dynamics
0 Systems Analysis
0 Sustainability Sciences
0 Ecosystem modelling

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Ecosystem modelling

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Journal article
Published: 05 March 2021 in Forests
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Nitrogen (N) fertilization in forests has the potential to increase tree growth and carbon (C) sequestration, but it also means a risk of N leaching. Dynamic models can, if the important processes are well described, play an important role in assessing benefits and risks of nitrogen fertilization. The aim of this study was to test if the ForSAFE model is able to simulate correctly the effects of N fertilization when considering different levels of N availability in the forest. The model was applied for three sites in Sweden, representing low, medium and high nitrogen deposition. Simulations were performed for scenarios with and without fertilization. The effect of N fertilization on tree growth was largest at the low deposition site, whereas the effect on N leaching was more pronounced at the high deposition site. For soil organic carbon (SOC) the effects were generally small, but in the second forest rotation SOC was slightly higher after fertilization, especially at the low deposition site. The ForSAFE simulations largely confirm the N saturation theory which state that N will not be retained in the forest when the ecosystem is N saturated, and we conclude that the model can be a useful tool in assessing effects of N fertilization.

ACS Style

Klas Lucander; Giuliana Zanchi; Cecilia Akselsson; Salim Belyazid. The Effect of Nitrogen Fertilization on Tree Growth, Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Leaching—A Modeling Study in a Steep Nitrogen Deposition Gradient in Sweden. Forests 2021, 12, 298 .

AMA Style

Klas Lucander, Giuliana Zanchi, Cecilia Akselsson, Salim Belyazid. The Effect of Nitrogen Fertilization on Tree Growth, Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Leaching—A Modeling Study in a Steep Nitrogen Deposition Gradient in Sweden. Forests. 2021; 12 (3):298.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Klas Lucander; Giuliana Zanchi; Cecilia Akselsson; Salim Belyazid. 2021. "The Effect of Nitrogen Fertilization on Tree Growth, Soil Organic Carbon and Nitrogen Leaching—A Modeling Study in a Steep Nitrogen Deposition Gradient in Sweden." Forests 12, no. 3: 298.

Journal article
Published: 23 February 2021 in Sustainability
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The demand of renewable energy has increased the interest in whole-tree harvesting. The sustainability of whole-tree harvesting after clear-cutting, from an acidification point of view, depends on two factors: the present acidification status and the further loss of buffering capacity at harvesting. The aims of this study were to investigate the relationship between these two factors at 26 sites along an acidification gradient in Sweden, to divide the sites into risk classes, and to examine the geographical distribution of them in order to provide policy-relevant insights. The present status was represented by the acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) in soil solution, and the loss of buffering capacity was represented by the estimated exceedance of critical biomass harvesting (CBH). The sites were divided into three risk classes combining ANC and exceedance of CBH. ANC and exceedance of CBH were negatively correlated, and most sites had either ANC < 0 and exceedance (high risk) or ANC > 0 and no exceedance (low risk). There was a geographical pattern, with the high risk class concentrated to southern Sweden, which was mainly explained by higher historical sulfur deposition and site productivity in the south. The risk classes can be used in the formulation of policies on whole-tree harvesting and wood ash recycling.

ACS Style

Cecilia Akselsson; Veronika Kronnäs; Nadja Stadlinger; Giuliana Zanchi; Salim Belyazid; Per Karlsson; Sofie Hellsten; Gunilla Karlsson. A Combined Measurement and Modelling Approach to Assess the Sustainability of Whole-Tree Harvesting—A Swedish Case Study. Sustainability 2021, 13, 2395 .

AMA Style

Cecilia Akselsson, Veronika Kronnäs, Nadja Stadlinger, Giuliana Zanchi, Salim Belyazid, Per Karlsson, Sofie Hellsten, Gunilla Karlsson. A Combined Measurement and Modelling Approach to Assess the Sustainability of Whole-Tree Harvesting—A Swedish Case Study. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (4):2395.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Cecilia Akselsson; Veronika Kronnäs; Nadja Stadlinger; Giuliana Zanchi; Salim Belyazid; Per Karlsson; Sofie Hellsten; Gunilla Karlsson. 2021. "A Combined Measurement and Modelling Approach to Assess the Sustainability of Whole-Tree Harvesting—A Swedish Case Study." Sustainability 13, no. 4: 2395.

Journal article
Published: 14 August 2020 in Sustainability
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The integrated character of the sustainable development goals in Agenda 2030, as well as research in environmental security, flag that sustainable peace requires sustainable and conflict-sensitive natural resource use. The precise relationship between the risk for violent conflict and natural resources remains contested because of the interplay with socio-economic variables. This paper aims to improve the understanding of natural resources’ role in the risk of violent conflicts by accounting for complex interactions with socio-economic conditions. Conflict data was analysed with machine learning techniques, which can account for complex patterns, such as variable interactions. More commonly used logistic regression models are compared with neural network models and random forest models. The results indicate that a country’s natural resource features are important predictors of its risk for violent conflict and that they interact with socio-economic conditions. Based on these empirical results and the existing literature, we interpret that natural resources can be root causes of violent intrastate conflict, and that signals from natural resources leading to conflict risk are reflected in and influenced by interacting socio-economic conditions. More specifically, the results show that variables such as access to water and food security are important predictors of conflict, while resource rents and oil and ore exports are relatively less important than other natural resource variables, contrasting what prior research has suggested. Given the potential of natural resource features to act as an early warning for violent conflict, we argue that natural resources should be included in conflict risk models for conflict prevention.

ACS Style

Marie Schellens; Salim Belyazid. Revisiting the Contested Role of Natural Resources in Violent Conflict Risk through Machine Learning. Sustainability 2020, 12, 6574 .

AMA Style

Marie Schellens, Salim Belyazid. Revisiting the Contested Role of Natural Resources in Violent Conflict Risk through Machine Learning. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (16):6574.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Marie Schellens; Salim Belyazid. 2020. "Revisiting the Contested Role of Natural Resources in Violent Conflict Risk through Machine Learning." Sustainability 12, no. 16: 6574.

Preprint content
Published: 23 March 2020
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In a world of climate change we need to minimize and stop greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and instead accumulate carbon in ecosystems - we call this ‘negative emissions’. Drained peatlands are in many cases large sources of GHGs to the atmosphere but rewetting of a peatland can mitigate these emissions and possibly reach a net uptake. However, carbon accumulation in peatlands is a dynamic and complex balance between uptake and release, which is mainly driven by the groundwater table (WT) depth.

                           Our new project funded by the Swedish Research Council FORMAS (2020-2022) aims to produce a handbook with guidance on how to change management of drained organic soil in order to convert them into low or negative emission peatlands. Researchers from Gothenburg, Stockholm, Lund and York Universities will collaborate with landowners, public authorities and NGO’s to assemble the most relevant knowledge.

We will compare GHG fluxes from organic soils under different traditional and newly suggested land uses in the Swedish landscape, by collected field data, which will be the input for upscaling in time and space by using state-of-the-art process models (CoupModel and ForSAFE). For modelling purposes, extensive abiotic and GHG datasets will be available from the research station ‘Skogaryd’ in Västra Götaland, Sweden (https://gvc.gu.se/english/research/skogaryd), from a drained peat with spruce forest, before and after the clear-cut in 2019. This clear-cut area will now be partly rewetted by building a dam, and GHG flux measurements will be collected in response to different soil WT and vegetation types. Other available data are from a variety of drained and rewetted peat soils in neighboring countries. In addition, GHG measurements in Sweden on restored bogs are starting during summer 2020. Models will allow us to assess and examine the influence of 1) WT fluctuations, 2) soil fertility, and 3) management on both carbon storage and GHG fluxes for rewetted cases with moss vegetation, meadow or swamp forest.

ACS Style

Åsa Kasimir; Salim Belyazid; Louise Andresen; Natascha Kljun; Sylvia Toet; Cecilia Akselsson; Edith Hammer; Emma Kritzberg; Annemarie Gärdenäs; Patrik Vestin; Per-Erik Jansson; Leif Klemedtsson. Guiding drained peatland management towards negative GHG emissions. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Åsa Kasimir, Salim Belyazid, Louise Andresen, Natascha Kljun, Sylvia Toet, Cecilia Akselsson, Edith Hammer, Emma Kritzberg, Annemarie Gärdenäs, Patrik Vestin, Per-Erik Jansson, Leif Klemedtsson. Guiding drained peatland management towards negative GHG emissions. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Åsa Kasimir; Salim Belyazid; Louise Andresen; Natascha Kljun; Sylvia Toet; Cecilia Akselsson; Edith Hammer; Emma Kritzberg; Annemarie Gärdenäs; Patrik Vestin; Per-Erik Jansson; Leif Klemedtsson. 2020. "Guiding drained peatland management towards negative GHG emissions." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 06 November 2019 in Ecological Modelling
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Whole tree harvesting (WTH) following final felling of productive forests is increasingly promoted as a method to extract biomass for energy purposes. Despite its importance, there is a limited number of experimental studies investigating the impacts of WTH on forest ecosystem sustainability. Modelling studies have previously been carried out to complement and explain empirical observations from four long-term WTH experiments in Sweden. The literature shows a significant discrepancy between these studies, and open questions remain as to the fate of the base cations that are not removed in the absence of WTH. This study uses the integrated ecosystem model ForSAFE, which simulate a forest ecosystem’s biogeochemical processes and the feedbacks between these processes, to trace the fate of base cations for the said four long-term WTH experiments. The study shows that the model generally captures the observed effects of WTH on the stocks of base cations in the biomass and in the soil. The modelled results were also used to map how the base cations removed through WTH would otherwise (if left at the site) have been distributed in the ecosystem. The results indicate that the soil organic pool may be more important to the long-term base cation balance than the exchangeable pool, and should receive more attention in future research.

ACS Style

Martin Erlandsson Lampa; Salim Belyazid; Giuliana Zanchi; Cecilia Akselsson. Effects of whole-tree harvesting on soil, soil water and tree growth – A dynamic modelling exercise in four long-term experiments. Ecological Modelling 2019, 414, 108832 .

AMA Style

Martin Erlandsson Lampa, Salim Belyazid, Giuliana Zanchi, Cecilia Akselsson. Effects of whole-tree harvesting on soil, soil water and tree growth – A dynamic modelling exercise in four long-term experiments. Ecological Modelling. 2019; 414 ():108832.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Martin Erlandsson Lampa; Salim Belyazid; Giuliana Zanchi; Cecilia Akselsson. 2019. "Effects of whole-tree harvesting on soil, soil water and tree growth – A dynamic modelling exercise in four long-term experiments." Ecological Modelling 414, no. : 108832.

Article
Published: 29 April 2019 in Water, Air, & Soil Pollution
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The integrated forest ecosystem model ForSAFE-Veg was used to simulate soil processes and understory vegetation composition at three—sugar maple, beech, yellow birch—hardwood forest sites in the Northeastern United States (one at Hubbard Brook, NH, and two at Bear Brook, ME). Input data were pooled from a variety of sources and proved coherent and consistent. While the biogeochemical component ForSAFE was used with limited calibration, the ground vegetation composition module Veg was calibrated to field relevés. Evaluating different simulated ecosystem indicators (soil solution chemistry, tree biomass, ground vegetation composition) showed that the model performed comparably well regardless of the site’s soil condition, climate, and amounts of nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) deposition, with the exception of failing to capture tree biomass decline at Hubbard Brook. The model performed better when compared with annual observation than monthly data. The results support the assumption that the biogeochemical model ForSAFE can be used with limited calibration and provide reasonable confidence, while the vegetation community composition module Veg requires calibration if the individual plant species are of interest. The study welcomes recent advances in empirically explaining the responses of hardwood forests to nutrient imbalances and points to the need for more research.

ACS Style

Salim Belyazid; Jennifer Phelan; Bengt Nihlgård; Harald Sverdrup; Charles Driscoll; Ivan Fernandez; Julian Aherne; Leslie M. Teeling-Adams; Scott Bailey; Matt Arsenault; Natalie Cleavitt; Brett Engstrom; Robin Dennis; Dan Sperduto; David Werier; Christopher Clark. Assessing the Effects of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Soil Properties and Plant Diversity in Northeastern U.S. Hardwood Forests: Model Setup and Evaluation. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution 2019, 230, 106 .

AMA Style

Salim Belyazid, Jennifer Phelan, Bengt Nihlgård, Harald Sverdrup, Charles Driscoll, Ivan Fernandez, Julian Aherne, Leslie M. Teeling-Adams, Scott Bailey, Matt Arsenault, Natalie Cleavitt, Brett Engstrom, Robin Dennis, Dan Sperduto, David Werier, Christopher Clark. Assessing the Effects of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Soil Properties and Plant Diversity in Northeastern U.S. Hardwood Forests: Model Setup and Evaluation. Water, Air, & Soil Pollution. 2019; 230 (5):106.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Salim Belyazid; Jennifer Phelan; Bengt Nihlgård; Harald Sverdrup; Charles Driscoll; Ivan Fernandez; Julian Aherne; Leslie M. Teeling-Adams; Scott Bailey; Matt Arsenault; Natalie Cleavitt; Brett Engstrom; Robin Dennis; Dan Sperduto; David Werier; Christopher Clark. 2019. "Assessing the Effects of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Soil Properties and Plant Diversity in Northeastern U.S. Hardwood Forests: Model Setup and Evaluation." Water, Air, & Soil Pollution 230, no. 5: 106.

Original paper
Published: 25 January 2019 in European Journal of Forest Research
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Climate change will bring about a consistent increase in temperatures. Annual precipitation rates are also expected to increase in boreal countries, but the seasonal distribution will be uneven, and several areas in the boreal zone will experience wetter winters and drier summers. This study uses the dynamic forest ecosystem model ForSAFE to estimate the combined effect of changes in temperature and precipitation on forest carbon stocks in Sweden. The model is used to simulate carbon stock changes in 544 productive forest sites from the Swedish National Forest Inventory. Forest carbon stocks under two alternative climate scenarios are compared to stocks under a hypothetical scenario of no climate change (baseline). Results show that lower water availability in the future can cause a significant reduction in tree carbon compared to a baseline scenario, particularly expressed in the southern and eastern parts of Sweden. In contrast, the north-western parts will experience an increase in tree carbon stocks. Results show also that summer precipitation is a better predictor of tree carbon reduction than annual precipitation. Finally, the change in soil carbon stock is less conspicuous than in tree carbon stock, showing no significant change in the north and a relatively small but consistent decline in the south. The study indicates that the prospect of higher water deficit caused by climate change cannot be ignored in future forest management planning.

ACS Style

Salim Belyazid; Zanchi Giuliana. Water limitation can negate the effect of higher temperatures on forest carbon sequestration. European Journal of Forest Research 2019, 138, 287 -297.

AMA Style

Salim Belyazid, Zanchi Giuliana. Water limitation can negate the effect of higher temperatures on forest carbon sequestration. European Journal of Forest Research. 2019; 138 (2):287-297.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Salim Belyazid; Zanchi Giuliana. 2019. "Water limitation can negate the effect of higher temperatures on forest carbon sequestration." European Journal of Forest Research 138, no. 2: 287-297.

Journal article
Published: 10 May 2018 in Sustainability
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There is a growing interest in the bio-based economy, evident in the policy domain as well as in the academic literature. Its proponents consider it an opportunity to address multiple societal challenges, and the concept has broad reach across different sectors of society. However, a potential transition process is also linked to areas of risk and uncertainty, and the need for interdisciplinary research and for the identification of potential trade-offs and synergies between parallel visions of the bio-based economy have been emphasized. The aim of this paper is to contribute to addressing this gap by using an approach combining tools for systems analysis with expert interviews. Focusing specifically on dynamics in the agricultural sector in Sweden, an integrated understanding of the social and ecological processes contributing to or hindering a transition in this area is developed, high order leverage points are identified, and potential impacts of proposed interventions explored. The paper also considers cross-sectoral linkages between the forestry and agricultural sectors.

ACS Style

Therese Bennich; Salim Belyazid; Birgit Kopainsky; Arnaud Diemer. Understanding the Transition to a Bio-Based Economy: Exploring Dynamics Linked to the Agricultural Sector in Sweden. Sustainability 2018, 10, 1504 .

AMA Style

Therese Bennich, Salim Belyazid, Birgit Kopainsky, Arnaud Diemer. Understanding the Transition to a Bio-Based Economy: Exploring Dynamics Linked to the Agricultural Sector in Sweden. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (5):1504.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Therese Bennich; Salim Belyazid; Birgit Kopainsky; Arnaud Diemer. 2018. "Understanding the Transition to a Bio-Based Economy: Exploring Dynamics Linked to the Agricultural Sector in Sweden." Sustainability 10, no. 5: 1504.

Journal article
Published: 27 March 2018 in Sustainability
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A transition to a bio-based economy would entail change in coupled social–ecological systems. These systems are characterised by complexity, giving rise to potential unintended consequences and trade-offs caused by actions aiming to facilitate a transition process. Yet, many of the analyses to date have been focusing on single and predominantly technological aspects of the bio-based economy. The main contribution of our work is to the development of an integrated understanding of potential future transition pathways, with the present paper focusing specifically on terrestrial biological resources derived from the forestry sector in Sweden. Desired change processes identified include a transition to diversified forest management, a structural change in the forestry industry to enable high-value added production, and increased political support for the bio-based economy concept. Hindrances identified include the ability to demonstrate added values for end consumers of novel biomass applications, and uncertainty linked to a perceived high level of polarisation in the forestry debate. The results outline how these different processes are interrelated, allowing for the identification of high order leverage points and interventions to facilitate a transition to a bio-based economy.

ACS Style

Therese Bennich; Salim Belyazid; Birgit Kopainsky; Arnaud Diemer. The Bio-Based Economy: Dynamics Governing Transition Pathways in the Swedish Forestry Sector. Sustainability 2018, 10, 976 .

AMA Style

Therese Bennich, Salim Belyazid, Birgit Kopainsky, Arnaud Diemer. The Bio-Based Economy: Dynamics Governing Transition Pathways in the Swedish Forestry Sector. Sustainability. 2018; 10 (4):976.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Therese Bennich; Salim Belyazid; Birgit Kopainsky; Arnaud Diemer. 2018. "The Bio-Based Economy: Dynamics Governing Transition Pathways in the Swedish Forestry Sector." Sustainability 10, no. 4: 976.

Journal article
Published: 01 February 2018 in Ecological Modelling
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In this study, a phosphorus (P) module containing the biogeochemical P cycle has been developed and integrated into the forest ecosystem model ForSAFE. The model was able to adequately reproduce the measured soil water chemistry, tree biomass (wood and foliage), and the biomass nutrient concentrations at a spruce site in southern Sweden. Both model and measurements indicated that the site showed signs of P limitation at the time of the study, but the model predicted that it may return to an N-limited state in the future if N deposition declines strongly. It is implied by the model that at present time, the plant takes up 0.50 g P m−2 y−1, of which 80% comes from mineralization and the remainder comes from net inputs, i.e. deposition and weathering. The sorption/desorption equilibrium of P contributed marginally to the supply of bioavailable P, but acted as a buffer, particularly during disturbances.

ACS Style

Lin Yu; Giuliana Zanchi; Cecilia Akselsson; Håkan Wallander; Salim Belyazid. Modeling the forest phosphorus nutrition in a southwestern Swedish forest site. Ecological Modelling 2018, 369, 88 -100.

AMA Style

Lin Yu, Giuliana Zanchi, Cecilia Akselsson, Håkan Wallander, Salim Belyazid. Modeling the forest phosphorus nutrition in a southwestern Swedish forest site. Ecological Modelling. 2018; 369 ():88-100.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lin Yu; Giuliana Zanchi; Cecilia Akselsson; Håkan Wallander; Salim Belyazid. 2018. "Modeling the forest phosphorus nutrition in a southwestern Swedish forest site." Ecological Modelling 369, no. : 88-100.

Review
Published: 24 May 2017 in Sustainability
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The bio-based economy has been increasingly recognized in the sustainability debate over the last two decades, presented as a solution to a number of ecological and social challenges. Its premises include climate change mitigation, cleaner production processes, economic growth, and new employment opportunities. Yet, a transition to a bio-based economy is hampered by risk factors and uncertainties. In this paper, we explore the concept of a bio-based economy, focusing on opportunities of achieving sustainability, as well as challenges of a transition. Departing from an understanding of sustainability provided by the weak and strong sustainability paradigms, we first outline the definition and development of the bio-based economy from a theoretical perspective. Second, we use Sweden as an example of how a transition towards a bio-based economy has been evolving in practice. The review indicates that the proposed direction and strategies of the bio-based economy are promising, but sometimes contradictory, resulting in different views on the actions needed for its premises to be realized. Additionally, current developments adhere largely to the principles of the weak sustainability paradigm. In order for the bio-based economy to develop in accordance with the notion of strong sustainability, important steps to facilitate a transition would include acknowledging and addressing the trade-offs caused by biophysical and social limits to growth.

ACS Style

Therese Bennich; Salim Belyazid. The Route to Sustainability—Prospects and Challenges of the Bio-Based Economy. Sustainability 2017, 9, 887 .

AMA Style

Therese Bennich, Salim Belyazid. The Route to Sustainability—Prospects and Challenges of the Bio-Based Economy. Sustainability. 2017; 9 (6):887.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Therese Bennich; Salim Belyazid. 2017. "The Route to Sustainability—Prospects and Challenges of the Bio-Based Economy." Sustainability 9, no. 6: 887.