The Mediterranean is expected to be one of the most prominent and vulnerable climate change “hotspots” of the twenty-first century, and the physical mechanisms underlying this finding are still not clear. Furthermore, complex interactions and feedbacks involving ocean–atmosphere–land–biogeochemical processes play a prominent role in modulating the climate and environment of the Mediterranean region on a range of spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, it is critical to provide robust climate change information for use in vulnerability–impact–adaptation assessment studies considering the Mediterranean as a fully coupled environmental system. The Mediterranean Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (Med-CORDEX) initiative aims at coordinating the Mediterranean climate modeling community toward the development of fully coupled regional climate simulations, improving all relevant components of the system from atmosphere and ocean dynamics to land surface, hydrology, and biogeochemical processes. The primary goals of Med-CORDEX are to improve understanding of past climate variability and trends and to provide more accurate and reliable future projections, assessing in a quantitative and robust way the added value of using high-resolution and coupled regional climate models. The coordination activities and the scientific outcomes of Med-CORDEX can produce an important framework to foster the development of regional Earth system models in several key regions worldwide.

Pacific low‐frequency variability (timescale > 8 years) exhibits a well‐known El Niño‐like pattern of basin‐scale sea surface temperature, which is found in all the major modes of Pacific decadal climate. Using a set of climate model experiments and observations, we decompose the mechanisms contributing to the growth, peak, and decay of the Pacific low‐frequency spatial variance. We find that the El Niño‐like interdecadal pattern is established through the combined actions of Pacific meridional modes (MM) and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Specifically, in the growth phase of the pattern, subtropical stochastic excitation of the MM energizes the tropical low‐frequency variance acting as a red noise process. Once in the tropics, this low‐frequency variance is amplified by ocean‐atmospheric feedbacks as the pattern reaches its peak phase. At the same time, atmospheric teleconnections distribute the variance from the tropics to the extratropics, where the pattern ultimately decays. In this stochastic red noise model of Pacific climate, the timescale of the extra‐tropical/tropical interactions (1–2 years) permits the stochastic excitation of the ENSO‐like pattern of decadal and interdecadal variance.

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year‐to‐year global climate variability. While Earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of ~20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is ~25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.

North and South Pacific Meridional Modes (NPMM and SPMM) are known precursors of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Tropical Pacific decadal variability (TPDV). However, the relative importance of these precursors and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a 30‐member ensemble of the Community Earth System Model as the control climate, we generate two additional members where the NPMM and SPMM are selectively suppressed. We find that both meridional modes energize the tropical variance independently on different timescales. The absence of NPMM leads to a significant reduction of the tropical interannual variability (~35%), while the absence of the SPMM has no appreciable impact on ENSO but significantly reduces the TPDV (~30%). While the relative importance of the NPMM and SPMM may be model dependent, the stochastic atmospheric variability in the extratropics that energizes the meridional modes emerges as a key source of TPDV.