Department of Ecology and Multidisciplinary Institute for Environmental Studies "Ramon Margalef", University of Alicante, PO Box 99, E-03080 Alicante, Spain
Dr. Cesar Bordehore
Department of Ecology and Multidisciplinary Institute for Environmental Studies "Ramon Margalef", University of Alicante, PO Box 99, E-03080 Alicante, Spain
The number of new daily infections is one of the main parameters to understand the dynamics of an epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, such information has been underestimated. Here, we propose a retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from daily deaths, because those are usually more accurately documented. Given the incubation period, the time from illness onset to death, and the case fatality ratio, the date of death can be estimated from the date of infection. We apply this idea conversely to estimate infections from deaths. This methodology is applied to Spain and its 19 administrative regions. Our results showed that probable daily infections during the first wave were between 35 and 42 times more than those officially documented on 14 March, when the national government decreed a national lockdown and 9 times more than those documented by the updated version of the official data. The national lockdown had a strong effect on the growth rate of virus transmission, which began to decrease immediately. Finally, the first inferred infection in Spain is about 43 days before the official data were available during the first wave. The current official data show delays of 15–30 days in the first infection relative to the inferred infections in 63% of the regions. In summary, we propose a methodology that allows reinterpretation of official daily infections, improving data accuracy in infection magnitude and dates because it assimilates valuable information from the National Seroprevalence Studies.
An unusual bloom of the cubozoan Carybdea marsupialis occurred at some beaches located near Denia (south-western Mediterranean Sea, south-eastern Spain) during the summer of 2008. The bloom was first detected and recorded by the local Red Cross first aid services. Densities of C. marsupialis in the area were characterized by quantitative sampling. The number of bathers stung totalled 3330 during the three months of summer. Sampling at shallow beaches from 15 September to 21 November 2008 gave insights into cubozoan density in the area, estimated at 265.9 individuals per 100 m2 as the highest value. These densities have never been recorded previously in the Mediterranean where the species was considered to be rare. Mean density along the 17 km of coastline which was sampled reached 5.4 ± 3.8 ind/100 m2. Data on size distribution are also given. This paper analyses the reasons behind these unusually high abundances of C. marsupialis in the north-western Mediterranean Sea and provides guidelines for future studies to elucidate the causes of this bloom.