Sea level anomaly (SLA) data in the Mediterranean and Black seas obtained by ocean radar altimetry missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason, ERS-1/2 and ENVISAT) are studied in conjunction with corresponding sea-surface temperature (SST) data. The studied time span is 11 years long, 1993-2003. Besides confirming previously published results, we report a significant, but enigmatic, abrupt change in the SLA trend that took place in mid-1999 which has been corroborated by independent tide gauge data. Results obtained from an Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis show that the change in 1999 is not uniform in the Mediterranean Sea, which can thus be divided into 6 sub-regions. This 1999 kink in the rate-of-change happened in four of these sub-regions as well as in the Black Sea. Upon splitting the time series at mid-1999, we see a good spatial correlation for the first period between SLA and SST trend maps in both the Mediterranean Sea and the Black Sea, while for the second period such correlation virtually disappeared in the Mediterranean and is greatly reduced in the Black Sea. It implies that prior to 1999 the steric effect was a major factor in interannual variability of sea level in the Mediterranean and Black seas, but after the time the SLA inverted its trend in mid-1999, this steric effects became less important as a forcing factor. It is premature to draw conclusions about the physical processes involved based on the data sets we study, but it appears that the Mediterranean Sea might be seeing a restoration of Adriatic as the main source of deep water in the eastern basin, while the Black Sea level has been largely controlled by an interannual or interdecadal steric effect.

The number of new daily infections is one of the main parameters to understand the dynamics of an epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, such information has been underestimated. Here, we propose a retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from daily deaths, because those are usually more accurately documented. Given the incubation period, the time from illness onset to death, and the case fatality ratio, the date of death can be estimated from the date of infection. We apply this idea conversely to estimate infections from deaths. This methodology is applied to Spain and its 19 administrative regions. Our results showed that probable daily infections during the first wave were between 35 and 42 times more than those officially documented on 14 March, when the national government decreed a national lockdown and 9 times more than those documented by the updated version of the official data. The national lockdown had a strong effect on the growth rate of virus transmission, which began to decrease immediately. Finally, the first inferred infection in Spain is about 43 days before the official data were available during the first wave. The current official data show delays of 15–30 days in the first infection relative to the inferred infections in 63% of the regions. In summary, we propose a methodology that allows reinterpretation of official daily infections, improving data accuracy in infection magnitude and dates because it assimilates valuable information from the National Seroprevalence Studies.

The sea level variation (SLV_total) is the sum of two major contributions: steric and mass‐induced. The steric SLV_steric is that resulting from the thermal and salinity changes in a given water column. It only involves volume change, hence has no gravitational effect. The mass‐induced SLV_mass, on the other hand, arises from adding or subtracting water mass to or from the water column and has direct gravitational signature. We examine the closure of the seasonal SLV budget and estimate the relative importance of the two contributions in the Mediterranean Sea as a function of time. We use ocean altimetry data (from TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason 1, ERS, and ENVISAT missions) to estimate SLV_total, temperature, and salinity data (from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean ocean model) to estimate SLV_steric, and time variable gravity data (from Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) Project, April 2002 to July 2004) to estimate SLV_mass. We find that the annual cycle of SLV_total in the Mediterranean is mainly driven by SLV_steric but moderately offset by SLV_mass. The agreement between the seasonal SLV_mass estimations from SLV_total – SLV_steric and from GRACE is quite remarkable; the annual cycle reaches the maximum value in mid‐February, almost half a cycle later than SLV_total or SLV_steric, which peak by mid‐October and mid‐September, respectively. Thus, when sea level is rising (falling), the Mediterranean Sea is actually losing (gaining) mass. Furthermore, as SLV_mass is balanced by vertical (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) and horizontal (exchange of water with the Atlantic, Black Sea, and river runoff) mass fluxes, we compared it with the P–E determined from meteorological data to estimate the annual cycle of the horizontal flux.

The Mediterranean-Black Sea system consists of two semi-enclosed basins connected by the Turkish Straits. In turn, the Mediterranean Sea is connected to the Atlantic Ocean through the narrow Strait of Gibraltar. The hydrological cycle of the system is driven by fresh water exchanges between the atmosphere, continents and oceans, and by salty water mass exchange among the ocean basins. Monitoring such water fluxes, especially its time evolution, is essential to understand the water cycle in the region, which is very sensitive to global climate changes and influences the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which in turn affects the global climate. In this study, we have estimated the hydrological cycle of the Mediterranean-Black Sea system from the time-variable gravity observations performed by the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE Follow-On satellites, and precipitation and evaporation from ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data for the period 2002–2020. In the Black Sea, rivers introduce an average water volume of 391 ± 12 km³/year, one third of which escape through the atmosphere and two thirds go to the Mediterranean Sea. In the latter, 1787 ± 23 km³/year are lost via net evaporation. The rivers runoff (502 ± 27 km³/year), and the inflow of Atlantic waters (1020 ± 56 km³/year; 0.0323 ± 0.0018 Sv), finally restore the Mediterranean water budget. The balance is not reached instantaneously, and this delay introduces a seasonal variability in all the fluxes. In particular, the net water flux from the Atlantic Ocean increases up to 2660 ± 111 km³/year in August/September, and reverses to − 407 ± 140 km³/year in April/May. On top of the climatology, the mean annual Atlantic water flux varies significantly between 706 and 1262 km³/year.