A high-resolution (3-km horizontal grid spacing) near-cloud-resolving numerical simulation of the formation of Hurricane Diana (1984) is used to examine the contribution of deep convective processes to tropical cyclone formation. This study is focused on the 3-km horizontal grid spacing simulation because this simulation was previously found to furnish an accurate forecast of the later stages of the observed storm life cycle. The numerical simulation reveals the presence of vortical hot towers, or cores of deep cumulonimbus convection possessing strong vertical vorticity, that arise from buoyancy-induced stretching of local absolute vertical vorticity in a vorticity-rich prehurricane environment. At near-cloud-resolving scales, these vortical hot towers are the preferred mode of convection. They are demonstrated to be the most important influence to the formation of the tropical storm via a two-stage evolutionary process: (i) preconditioning of the local environment via diabatic production of mul... Abstract A high-resolution (3-km horizontal grid spacing) near-cloud-resolving numerical simulation of the formation of Hurricane Diana (1984) is used to examine the contribution of deep convective processes to tropical cyclone formation. This study is focused on the 3-km horizontal grid spacing simulation because this simulation was previously found to furnish an accurate forecast of the later stages of the observed storm life cycle. The numerical simulation reveals the presence of vortical hot towers, or cores of deep cumulonimbus convection possessing strong vertical vorticity, that arise from buoyancy-induced stretching of local absolute vertical vorticity in a vorticity-rich prehurricane environment. At near-cloud-resolving scales, these vortical hot towers are the preferred mode of convection. They are demonstrated to be the most important influence to the formation of the tropical storm via a two-stage evolutionary process: (i) preconditioning of the local environment via diabatic production of mul...

Composite analysis is used to examine environmental and climatology and persistence characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing different intensity changes in the western North Pacific (WPAC) and North Atlantic (ATL) ocean basins. Using the cumulative distribution functions of 24-h intensity changes from the 2003–08 best-track data, four intensity change bins are defined: rapidly intensifying (RI), intensifying, neutral, and weakening. The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System daily 0000 and 1200 UTC global analysis and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager data are then used as proxies for the real atmosphere, and composites of various environmental fields believed relevant to TC intensity change are made in the vicinity of the TCs. These composites give the average characteristics near the TC, prior to undergoing a given intensity change episode.For the environmental variables, statistically significant differences are examined between RI storms and the other groups. While some environmental differences were found between RI and weakening/neutral TCs in both basins, an interesting result from this study is that the environment of RI TCs and intensifying TCs is quite similar. This indicates that the rate of intensification is only weakly dependent on the environmental conditions, on average, provided the environment is favorable. Notable exceptions were that in the WPAC, RI events occurred in environments with significantly larger conditional instability than intensifying events. In the ATL, RI events occurred in environments with weaker deep-layer shear than intensifying events. An important finding of this work is that SSTs are similar between intensifying and rapidly intensifying TCs, indicating that the rate of intensification is not critically dependent on SST.The TCs in both basins were more intense prior to undergoing an RI episode than an intensifying or neutral episode. In the WPAC, the three groups had similar translational speeds and headings, and average initial position. In the ATL, RI storms were located farther south than intensifying and neutral storms, and had a larger translational speed and a more westward component to the heading.

Tropical cyclone (TC) outflow and its relationship to TC intensity change and structure were investigated in the Office of Naval Research Tropical Cyclone Intensity (TCI) field program during 2015 using dropsondes deployed from the innovative new High-Definition Sounding System (HDSS) and remotely sensed observations from the Hurricane Imaging Radiometer (HIRAD), both on board the NASA WB-57 that flew in the lower stratosphere. Three noteworthy hurricanes were intensively observed with unprecedented horizontal resolution: Joaquin in the Atlantic and Marty and Patricia in the eastern North Pacific. Nearly 800 dropsondes were deployed from the WB-57 flight level of ∼60,000 ft (∼18 km), recording atmospheric conditions from the lower stratosphere to the surface, while HIRAD measured the surface winds in a 50-km-wide swath with a horizontal resolution of 2 km. Dropsonde transects with 4–10-km spacing through the inner cores of Hurricanes Patricia, Joaquin, and Marty depict the large horizontal and vertical gradients in winds and thermodynamic properties. An innovative technique utilizing GPS positions of the HDSS reveals the vortex tilt in detail not possible before. In four TCI flights over Joaquin, systematic measurements of a major hurricane’s outflow layer were made at high spatial resolution for the first time. Dropsondes deployed at 4-km intervals as the WB-57 flew over the center of Hurricane Patricia reveal in unprecedented detail the inner-core structure and upper-tropospheric outflow associated with this historic hurricane. Analyses and numerical modeling studies are in progress to understand and predict the complex factors that influenced Joaquin’s and Patricia’s unusual intensity changes.

During austral winter, and away from orographic maxima or “hot spots,” stratospheric gravity waves in both satellite observations and Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data reveal enhanced amplitudes in a broad midlatitude belt extending across the Southern Ocean from east of the Andes to south of New Zealand. The peak latitude of this feature slowly migrates poleward from 50° to 60°S. Wave amplitudes are much weaker across the midlatitude Pacific Ocean. These features of the wave field are in striking agreement with diagnostics of baroclinic growth rates in the troposphere associated with midlatitude winter storm tracks and the climatology of the midlatitude jet. This correlation suggests that these features of the stratospheric gravity wave field are controlled by geographical variations of tropospheric nonorographic gravity wave sources in winter storm tracks: spontaneous adjustment emission from the midlatitude winter jet, frontogenesis, and convection.

A forced shallow-water model is used to understand the role of diabatic and frictional effects in the generation, maintenance, and breakdown of the hurricane eyewall potential vorticity (PV) ring. Diabatic heating is parameterized as an annular mass sink of variable width and magnitude, and the nonlinear evolution of tropical storm–like vortices is examined under this forcing. Diabatic heating produces a strengthening and thinning PV ring in time due to the combined effects of the mass sink and radial PV advection by the induced divergent circulation. If the forcing makes the ring thin enough, then it can become dynamically unstable and break down into polygonal asymmetries or mesovortices. The onset of barotropic instability is marked by simultaneous drops in both the maximum instantaneous velocity and minimum pressure, consistent with unforced studies. However, in a sensitivity test where the heating is proportional to the relative vorticity, universal intensification occurs during barotropic instability, consistent with a recent observational study. Friction is shown to help stabilize the PV ring by reducing the eyewall PV and the unstable-mode barotropic growth rate. The radial location and structure of the heating is shown to be of critical importance for intensity variability. While it is well known that it is critical to heat in the inertially stable region inside the radius of maximum winds to spin up the hurricane vortex, these results demonstrate the additional importance of having the net heating as close as possible to the center of the storm, partially explaining why tropical cyclones with very small eyes can rapidly intensify to high peak intensities.