Amidst drastic environmental changes, the intricate interplay and feedback mechanisms in the water–vegetation–atmosphere nexus experience alteration. Previous research primarily centres on the responses among variables within this system, with little known about whether and how these responses (sensitivities) change. Here, we employ the Evapotranspiration Stress Index (ESI) to represent the equilibrium of the nexus and develop a memory dynamic linear model based on Bayesian forward filtering. The model takes into account the carry-over effect in the “dry gets drier” self-amplify loop, allowing for a more effective estimation of the ESI time-varying sensitivity to associated influencing factors. Our analysis reveals that from 1950 to 2020, mainland China experienced a notable 4.74 % escalation in evapotranspiration stress. Surface soil moisture serves as a primary driver, whose sensitivity to ESI has surged by 9.49 % in the last decade compared to the early 2000s. Vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and leaf area index (LAI) also exerted a substantial role, with their sensitivities fluctuating approximately 22.91 % and −45.77 %, respectively. Moreover, the greening pace is linked to an increase in soil moisture sensitivity and a decrease in VPD sensitivity, suggesting that rapid greening may alter the ecological resilience against soil deficit and atmospheric drought. In comparison, the widely used moving window multiple linear regression (MLR) significantly overestimates sensitivity fluctuations, necessitating prudent interpretation of numerical estimates in related research findings. Our findings underscore the spatiotemporal variations in sensitivity, enriching the comprehension of ecosystem reactions to external factors, and offer essential insights for advancing greening endeavours.

As extreme climate events become more common with global warming, groundwater is increasingly vital for combating long-term drought and ensuring socio-economic and ecological stability. Currently, the mechanism of meteorological drought propagation to groundwater drought is still not fully understood. This study focuses on the North China Plain (NCP), utilizing statistical theories, spatiotemporal kriging interpolation, and the Mann–Kendall trend test to examine the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of groundwater from 2005 to 2021. Based on drought theory, the characteristics and propagation process of drought are further quantified. Key findings reveal the following: (1) Shallow groundwater depths in the NCP follow a zonal pattern from the western mountains to the eastern plains and coastal areas. Over two-thirds of this region showed an increase in groundwater depth at a rate of 0–0.05 m/a; (2) Groundwater drought frequency typically ranges from 3 to 6 times, with an average duration of 10 to 30 months and average severity between 10 and 35; (3) Delayed effects last between 0 to 60 months, with attenuation effects varying from 0 to 3 and prolonged effects extending from 0 to 16. Additionally, delayed effects intensify with increasing time scales, while prolonged effects weaken. Notably, both delayed and prolonged effects in the north of the NCP are more pronounced than in the south of the region. This study quantifies the process by which meteorological drought propagates to groundwater drought, offering a new perspective for understanding the interaction between groundwater and meteorological drought. It holds significant scientific importance for monitoring drought and managing water resources in the context of global climate change.

One of the keys in time-dependent routing is determining the weight for each road network link based on symmetrical and complete traffic information. To facilitate travel planning considering traffic situations based on historical global position system (GPS) trajectory data which uncover the whole road network, this paper proposes a fuzzy random forest-based road section data estimation method, which uses the third law of geography as the core idea. For different time periods, road grade, tidal lane, proximity to infrastructure (main places that affect traffic, such as schools, hospitals), and accident road sections were selected as indicators that influence the traffic. The random forest algorithm is used to build the mapping relationship between attribute data with average traffic which is obtained based on GPS data. Subsequently, the fuzzy reasoning method is used to obtain the weight of road links missing traffic information by calculating their similarities with typical road section samples. Using the road network of Suzhou City as an example, the proposed method was used to analyze estimate the average driving speeds of road sections with missing traffic information for different time periods. Experimental results show that this method can effectively avoid congested road sections and obtain high-speed travel routes.

Satellite-based land cover products play a crucial role in sustainability. There are several types of land cover products, such as qualitative products with discrete classes, semiquantitative products with several classes at a predetermined ratio, and quantitative products with land cover fractions. The proportions of land cover types in the grids with coarse resolution should be considered when used at the regional scale (e.g., modeling and remote sensing inversion). However, uncertainty, which varies with spatial distribution and resolution, needs to be studied further. This study used MCD12, ESA CCI, and MEaSURES VCF land cover data as indicators of qualitative, semiquantitative, and quantitative products, respectively, to explore the uncertainty of multisource land cover data. The methods of maximum area aggregation, deviation analysis, and least squares regression were used to investigate spatiotemporal changes in forests and nontree vegetation at diverse pixel resolutions across China. The results showed that the average difference in forest coverage for the three products was 8%, and the average deviation was 11.2%. For forest cover, the VCF and ESA CCI exhibited high consistency. For nontree vegetation, the ESA CCI and MODIS exhibited the lowest differences. The overall uncertainty in the temporal and spatial changes of the three products was relatively small, but there were significant differences in local areas (e.g., southeastern hills). Notably, as the spatial resolution decreased, the three products’ uncertainty decreased, and the resolution of 0.1° was the inflection point of consistency.