NEOM (short for Neo-Mustaqbal) is a $500 billion coastal city megaproject, currently under construction in the northwestern part of the Red Sea, off the coast of Tabuk province in Saudi Arabia, and its success will rely on the preservation of biodiverse marine ecosystems. Monitoring the variability of ecological indicators, such as phytoplankton, in relation to regional environmental conditions, is the foundation for such a goal. We provide a detailed description of the phytoplankton seasonal cycle of surface waters surrounding NEOM using satellite-derived chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) observations, based on a regionally-tuned product of the European Space Agency’s Ocean Colour Climate Change Initiative, at 1 km resolution, from 1997 to 2018. The analysis is also supported with in situ cruise datasets and outputs of a state-of-the-art high-resolution hydrodynamic model. The open waters of NEOM follow the oligotrophic character of the Northern Red Sea (NRS), with a peak during late winter and a minimum during late summer. Coral reef-bound regions, such as Sindala and Sharma, are characterised by higher Chl-a concentrations that peak during late summer. Most of the open waters around NEOM are influenced by the general cyclonic circulation of the NRS and local circulation features, while shallow reef-bound regions are more isolated. Our analysis provides the first description of the phytoplankton seasonality and the oceanographic conditions in NEOM, which may support the development of a regional marine conservation strategy.

Effective management to conserve marine environments requires up-to-date information on the location, distribution, and extent of major benthic habitats. Remote sensing is a key tool for such assessments, enabling consistent, repeated measurements over large areas. There is particular interest in using freely available satellite images such as from the Copernicus Sentinel-2 series for accessible repeat assessments. In this study, an area of 438 km² of the northern Red Sea coastline, adjacent to the NEOM development was mapped using Sentinel-2 imagery. A hierarchical Random Forest classification method was used, where the initial level classified pixels into a geomorphological class, followed by a second level of benthic cover classification. Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle (UAV) surveys were carried out in 12 locations in the NEOM area to collect field data on benthic cover for training and validation. The overall accuracy of the geomorphic and benthic classifications was 84.15% and 72.97%, respectively. Approximately 12% (26.26 km²) of the shallow Red Sea study area was classified as coral or dense algae and 16% (36.12 km²) was classified as rubble. These reef environments offer crucial ecosystem services and are believed to be internationally important as a global warming refugium. Seagrass meadows, covering an estimated 29.17 km² of the study area, play a regionally significant role in carbon sequestration and are estimated to store 200 tonnes of carbon annually, emphasising the importance of their conservation for meeting the environmental goals of the NEOM megaproject. This is the first map of this region generated using Sentinel-2 data and demonstrates the feasibility of using an open source and reproducible methodology for monitoring coastal habitats in the region. The use of training data derived from UAV imagery provides a low-cost and time-efficient alternative to traditional methods of boat or snorkel surveys for covering large areas in remote sites.

This work introduces the use of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) for inferring chlorophyll-a concentration ([CHL-a]) from remotely sensed data. BNNs are probabilistic models that associate a probability distribution to the neural network parameters and rely on Bayes’ rule for training. The performance of the proposed probabilistic model is compared to that of standard ocean color algorithms, namely ocean color 4 (OC4) and ocean color index (OCI). An extensive in situ bio-optical dataset was used to train and validate the ocean color models. In contrast to established methods, the BNN allows for enhanced modeling flexibility, where different variables that affect phytoplankton phenology or describe the state of the ocean can be used as additional input for enhanced performance. Our results suggest that BNNs perform at least as well as established methods, and they could achieve 20–40% lower mean squared errors when additional input variables are included, such as the sea surface temperature and its climatological mean alongside the coordinates of the prediction. The BNNs offer means for uncertainty quantification by estimating the probability distribution of [CHL-a], building confidence in the [CHL-a] predictions through the variance of the predictions. Furthermore, the output probability distribution can be used for risk assessment and decision making through analyzing the quantiles and shape of the predicted distribution.

This study explores the use of Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) for estimating chlorophyll-a concentration ([CHL-a]) from remotely sensed data. The BNN model enables uncertainty quantification, offering additional layers of information compared to traditional ocean colour models. An extensive in situ bio-optical dataset is utilized, generated by merging 27 data sources across the world’s oceans. The BNN model demonstrates remarkable capability in capturing mesoscale features and ocean circulation patterns, providing comprehensive insights into spatial and temporal variations in [CHL-a] across diverse marine ecosystems. In comparison to established ocean colour algorithms, such as Ocean Colour 4 (OC4), the BNN shows comparable performance in terms of correlation coefficients, errors, and biases when compared with the in situ data. The BNN, however, further provides critical information about the distribution of [CHL-a], which can be used to assess uncertainties in the prediction. Moreover, the BNN model’s ability to provide more information for coastal waters, especially with higher spatial resolution imagery, offers valuable advantages for marine research and management. By quantifying uncertainty, the model builds confidence in [CHL-a] predictions, even in regions with limited data coverage. This is reflected by the spread in the model predictions, where the BNN can detect a range of uncertainty bounds that reflect confidence in the retrievals. Introducing BNNs as probabilistic ocean colour models represents a significant advancement, enabling more accurate and reliable predictions of [CHL-a] in the global oceans.