Monitoring networks show that the European Union Nitrates Directive (ND) has had mixed success in reducing nitrate concentrations in groundwater. By combining machine learning and monitored nitrate concentrations (1992-2019), we estimate the total area of nitrate hotspots in Europe to be 401,000 km², with 47% occurring outside of Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZs). We also found contrasting increasing or decreasing trends, varying per country and time periods. We estimate that only 5% of the 122,000 km² of hotspots in 2019 will meet nitrate quality standards by 2040 and that these may be offset by the appearance of new hotspots. Our results reveal that the effectiveness of the ND is limited by both time-lags between the implementation of good practices and pollution reduction and an inadequate designation of NVZs. Substantial improvements in the designation and regulation of NVZs are necessary, as well as in the quality of monitoring stations in terms of spatial density and information available concerning sampling depth, if the objectives of EU legislation to protect groundwater are to be achieved.

Reducing nitrate leaching may not result in a significant improvement of groundwater quality. The amount of nitrate reaching groundwater depends not only on the hazard related to agricultural activities but also on-site specific groundwater vulnerability. Using national databases and other compiled datasets, the agricultural hazard was calculated as the ratio of (i) the nitrate leached estimated from the N surplus, and (ii) the water surplus, a proxy of the percolating water below the root zone. By combining the hazard with a multi-parameter groundwater vulnerability, a spatially explicit groundwater contamination risk, developed for mainland Portugal, was computed for 1999 and 2009. Results show an increase from 8,800 to 82,679 ha of the territory rated with a very high contamination risk. The priority areas were successfully screened by the Index, coinciding with the current Vulnerable Zones, although additional hotspots were detected in southern Portugal. Percolation, including both irrigation activity and precipitation, was found to be a key driver for the groundwater contamination risk due to its opposite effects in the hazard and in the vulnerability. Reducing nitrogen leaching may be insufficient to reduce the risk of nitrate contamination if there is a relatively larger reduction in precipitation. This index is particularly useful when applied to contrasting situations of vulnerability and hazard, which require distinct mitigation measures to mitigate groundwater contamination.

Ammonia (NH₃) volatilization, nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions, and nitrate (NO₃^-) leaching from agriculture cause severe environmental hazards. Research studies and mitigation strategies have mostly focused on one of these nitrogen (N) losses at a time, often without an integrated view of the agro-food system. Yet, at the regional scale, N₂O, NH₃, and NO₃^- loss patterns reflect the structure of the whole agro-food system. Here, we analyzed at the resolution of NUTS2 administrative European Union (EU) regions, N fluxes through the agro-food systems of a Temperate-Mediterranean gradient (France, Spain, and Portugal) experiencing contrasting climate and soil conditions. We assessed the atmospheric and hydrological N emissions from soils and livestock systems. Expressed per ha agricultural land, NH₃ volatilization varied in the range 6.2-44.4 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1, N₂O emission and NO₃ leaching 0.3-4.9 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 and 5.4-154 kg N ha^-1 yr^-1 respectively. Overall, lowest N₂O emission was found in the Mediterranean regions, where NO₃^- leaching was greater. NH₃ volatilization in both temperate and Mediterranean regions roughly follows the distribution of livestock density. We showed that these losses are also closely correlated with the level of fertilization intensity and agriculture system specialization into either stockless crop farming or intensive livestock farming in each region. Moreover, we explored two possible future scenarios at the 2050 horizon: (1) a scenario based on the prescriptions of the EU-Farm-to-Fork (F2F) strategy, with 25% of organic farming, 10% of land set aside for biodiversity, 20% reduction in N fertilizers, and no diet change; and (2) a hypothetical agro-ecological (AE) scenario with generalized organic farming, reconnection of crop and livestock farming, and a healthier human diet with an increase in the share of vegetal protein to 65% (i.e., the Mediterranean diet). Results showed that the AE scenario, owing to its profound reconfiguration of the entire agro-food system would have the potential for much greater reductions in NH₃, N₂O, and NO₃^- emissions, namely, 60-81% reduction, while the F2F scenario would only reach 24-35% reduction of N losses.

Irrigation, one of the 28 agri-environmental indicators defined in the European Common Agricultural Policy, is often neglected in agricultural nitrogen (N) budgets, while it can be a considerable source of N in irrigated agriculture. The annual N input from irrigation water sources (NIrrig) to cropping systems was quantified for Europe for 2000-2010 at a resolution of 10 × 10 km, accounting for crop-specific gross irrigation requirements (GIR) and surface- and groundwater nitrate concentration. GIR were computed for 20 crops, while spatially explicit nitrate concentration in groundwater was derived using a random forest model. We show that although GIR were relatively stable (46-60 km3 yr-1), the Nirrig in Europe increased over the 10-year period (184 to 259 Gg N yr-1), approximately 68 % of which occurred in the Mediterranean region. The main hotspots appeared in areas with both high irrigation requirements and high groundwater nitrate concentration, reaching up to averaged values of 150 kg N ha-1 yr1. These were mainly located in Mediterranean Europe (Greece, Portugal and Spain) and to a lesser extent in Northern Europe (The Netherlands, Sweden and Germany). By not including NIrrig, environmental and agricultural policies are underestimating the real extent of N pollution hotspots in European irrigated systems.