Monitoring networks show that the European Union Nitrates Directive (ND) has had mixed success in reducing nitrate concentrations in groundwater. By combining machine learning and monitored nitrate concentrations (1992-2019), we estimate the total area of nitrate hotspots in Europe to be 401,000 km², with 47% occurring outside of Nitrate Vulnerable Zones (NVZs). We also found contrasting increasing or decreasing trends, varying per country and time periods. We estimate that only 5% of the 122,000 km² of hotspots in 2019 will meet nitrate quality standards by 2040 and that these may be offset by the appearance of new hotspots. Our results reveal that the effectiveness of the ND is limited by both time-lags between the implementation of good practices and pollution reduction and an inadequate designation of NVZs. Substantial improvements in the designation and regulation of NVZs are necessary, as well as in the quality of monitoring stations in terms of spatial density and information available concerning sampling depth, if the objectives of EU legislation to protect groundwater are to be achieved.

Agricultural activities are responsible for most of the nitrogen (N) inputs that degrade water quality. To elucidate the drivers leading to N pressures on water, we examined the resulting state of surface waters in terms of N concentrations, the impact of this on water quality status and policy responses to these constraints across different climatic and management conditions. Portugal and Denmark were chosen as contrasting case studies for the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) analysis. Our results showed reductions of 39% and 25% in the use of mineral fertilizer in Portugal and Denmark, respectively, between 2000 and 2010. The N surplus in Portugal varied between 15 and 30 kg N ha⁻¹ between 1995 and 2015. In Denmark, in 2015, this amount was 70 kg N ha⁻¹, representing a 53% decrease from the 1990 value. The average amount of total N discharged to surface waters was 7 kg ha⁻¹ for mainland Portugal in 2015 and 14.6 kg ha⁻¹ for Denmark in 2014. These reductions in the N surplus were attributed to historical policies aimed at N pressure abatement. In Denmark, N losses are expected to decline further through the continuation or improvement of existing national action plans. In Portugal, they are expected to decline further due to the expansion of Nitrate Vulnerable Zones and the introduction of targeted policies aimed at improving N use efficiency and reducing losses to water.