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Graduated in Geographical Engineering from the University of Coimbra, Master in Geophysical Sciences, specialization in Meteorology from the University of Lisbon, and in Mathematics from the University of Coimbra, PhD in Environmental Sciences, specialization in atmosphere dynamics from the University of Évora. Professor of the Departmental Unit of Mathematics and Physics of the Polytechnic Institute of Tomar since 1998, Director of the Laboratory of Applied Research in Natural Risks (NHRC.ipt) of IPT since 2014, was Director of the TeSP in Safety and Civil Protection. Author of several international articles with scientific expert in the areas of atmosphere dynamics, extreme events, and climate, among others. An integrated member of citab of the University of Trás-os-montes and Alto Douro, and also a member of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). Author of several international articles with peer-review in the areas of atmosphere dynamics, extreme events, and climate, among others. An integrated member of CITAB of the University of Trás-os-montes and Alto Douro, and also a member of the European Geosciences Union (EGU). She is a member of the Municipal Safety Council of Tomar Municipality, also coordinating research activities under Protocols established with some Municipalities of the Middle Tagus region.
Land and climate are strongly connected through multiple interface processes and climate change may lead to significant changes in land use. In this study, high-resolution observational gridded datasets are used to assess modifications in the Köppen–Geiger and Worldwide Bioclimatic (WBCS) Classification Systems, from 1950–1979 to 1990–2019 in Portugal. A compound bioclimatic-shift exposure index (BSEI) is also defined to identify the most exposed regions to recent climatic changes. The temporal evolution of land cover with vineyards and olive groves between 1990 and 2018, as well as correlations with areas with bioclimatic shifts, are analyzed. Results show an increase of CSa Warm Mediterranean climate with hot summer of 18.1%, followed by a decrease in CSb (warm summer) climate of −17.8%. The WBCS Temperate areas also reveal a decrease of −5.11%. Arid and semi-arid ombrotypes areas increased, conversely humid to sub-humid ombrotypes decreased. Thermotypic horizons depict a shift towards warmer classes. BSEI highlights the most significant shifts in northwestern Portugal. Vineyards have been displaced towards regions that are either the coolest/humid, in the northwest, or the warmest/driest, in the south. For oliviculture, the general trend for a relative shift towards cool/humid areas suggests an attempt of the sector to adapt, despite the cover area growth in the south. As vineyards and olive groves in southern Portugal are commonly irrigated, options for the intensification of these crops in this region may threaten the already scarce water resources and challenge the future sustainability of these sectors.
Cristina Andrade; André Fonseca; João Andrade Santos. Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal? Land 2021, 10, 869 .
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, André Fonseca, João Andrade Santos. Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal? Land. 2021; 10 (8):869.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; André Fonseca; João Andrade Santos. 2021. "Are Land Use Options in Viticulture and Oliviculture in Agreement with Bioclimatic Shifts in Portugal?" Land 10, no. 8: 869.
The assessment of aridity conditions is a key factor for water management and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies in agroforestry systems. Towards this aim, three aridity indices were computed for the Iberian Peninsula (IP): the De Martonne Index (DMI), the Pinna Combinative Index (PCI), and the Erinç Aridity Index (EAI). These three indices were first computed for the baseline period 1961–1990, using gridded observational data (E-OBS), and subsequently, for the periods 2011–2040 (short range) and 2041–2070 (medium range), using an ensemble of six regional climate model (RCM) experiments generated by the EURO-CORDEX project. Two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) were analyzed, an intermediate anthropogenic radiative forcing scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil-intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). Overall, the three indices disclose a strengthening of aridity and dry conditions in central and southern Iberia until 2070, mainly under RCP8.5. Strong (weak) statistically significant correlations were found between these indices and the total mean precipitation (mean temperature) along with projected significant decreasing (increasing) trends for precipitation (temperature). The prevalence of years with arid conditions (above 70% for 2041–2070 under both RCPs) are projected to have major impacts in some regions, such as southern Portugal, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Comunidad de Madrid, Andalucía, Región de Murcia, Comunidad Valenciana, and certain regions within the Aragón province. The projected increase in both the intensity and persistence of aridity conditions in a broader southern half of Iberia will exacerbate the exposure and vulnerability of this region to climate change, while the risk of multi-level desertification should be thoroughly integrated into regional and national water management and planning.
Cristina Andrade; Joana Contente; João Santos. Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. Water 2021, 13, 2035 .
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, Joana Contente, João Santos. Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. Water. 2021; 13 (15):2035.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; Joana Contente; João Santos. 2021. "Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula." Water 13, no. 15: 2035.
The assessment of aridity conditions is a key factor for water management and the implementation of mitigation and adaptation policies in agroforestry systems. Towards this aim three aridity indices were computed for the Iberian Peninsula (IP): the De Martonne Index (DMI), the Pinna Combinative Index (PCI), and the Erinç Aridity Index (EAI). These three indices were first computed for the baseline period 1961‒1990, using a gridded observational data (E-OBS), and, subsequently, for the periods 2011‒2040 (short-range) and 2041‒2070 (medium-range) using an ensemble of six Regional Climate Models (RCMs) experiments generated by the EURO-CORDEX project. Two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) were analyzed, an intermediate anthropogenic radiative forcing scenario (RCP4.5) and a fossil-intensive emission scenario (RCP8.5). Overall, the three indices disclose a strengthening of aridity and dry conditions in central and southern Iberia until 2070, mainly under RCP8.5. Strong(weak) statistically significant correlations were found between these indices and the total mean precipitation (mean temperature) along with projected significant decreasing(increasing) trends for precipitation(temperature). The prevalence of years with arid conditions (above 70% for 2041‒2070 under both RCPs) are projected to have major impacts in some regions, such as southern Portugal, Extremadura, Castilla-La Mancha, Comunidad de Madrid, Andalucía, Región de Murcia, Comunidad Valenciana, and certain regions within the Aragón province. The projected increase in both the intensity and persistence of aridity conditions in a broader southern half of Iberia will exacerbate the exposure and vulnerability of this region to climate change, while the risk of multi-level desertification should be thoroughly integrated into regional and national water management and planning.
Cristina Andrade; Joana Contente; João Andrade Santos. Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, Joana Contente, João Andrade Santos. Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; Joana Contente; João Andrade Santos. 2021. "Climate Change Projections of Aridity Conditions in the Iberian Peninsula." , no. : 1.
Projections of the Köppen-Geiger climate classification under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula (IP) are investigated by using a seven-ensemble mean of regional climate models (RCMs) attained from EURO-CORDEX. Maps with predicted future scenarios for temperature, precipitation and Köppen-Geiger classification are analyzed under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Iberia. Widespread statistically significant shifts in temperature, precipitation and climate regimes are projected between 2041 and 2070, with higher expression under RCP8.5. An overall increase of temperatures and a decrease of precipitation in the south-southeast is predicted. Of the two climate types dry (B) and temperate (C), the dominant one was C in 86% of the Iberian territory for 1961-1990, predicted to decrease by 8.0% towards 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (9.1% under RCP8.5). The hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSa) will progressively replaces CSb (warm-summer) type towards north in the northwestern half of Iberia until 2070. This shift, depicted by the SSIM index, is noticeable in Portugal with a projected establishment of the CSa climate by 2041-2070. A predicted retreat of humid subtropical (Cfa) and temperate oceanic (Cfb) areas in the northeast towards Pyrenees region is noteworthy, alongside an increase of desert (BW) and semi-desert (BS) climates (7.8% and 9%) that progressively sets in the southeast (between Granada and Valencia). Climate types BSh and BWh (hot semi-desert and hot-desert, respectively), non-existent in 1961-1990 period, are projected to represent 2.8% of territory in 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (5% under RCP8.5). The statistically significant projected changes hint at the disappearance of some vegetation species in certain regions of Iberia, with an expected increase of steppe, bush, grassland and wasteland vegetation cover, typical of dry climates in the southeast.
Funding: This research was funded by National Funds by FCT - Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020.
Cristina Andrade; Joana Contente. Projections for the Köppen-Geiger climate classification under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, Joana Contente. Projections for the Köppen-Geiger climate classification under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; Joana Contente. 2021. "Projections for the Köppen-Geiger climate classification under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula." , no. : 1.
The Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation Index (WASP-Index) was computed over Iberia for three monthly timescales (3-month, 6-month and 12-month) in 1961–2020, based on an observational gridded precipitation dataset (E-OBS), and between 2021 and 2070, based on bias-corrected precipitation generated by a six-member climate model ensemble from EURO-CORDEX, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The area-mean values revealed an upward trend in the frequency of occurrence of intermediate-to-severe dry events over Iberia, which will be strengthened in the future, particularly for the 12-month WASP (12m-WASP) intermediate dry events under RCP8.5. Besides, the number of 3-month WASP (3m-WASP) intermediate-to-severe wet events is projected to increase (mostly the severest events under RCP4.5) but no evidence was found for an increase in the number of more persistent 12m-WASP wet events under both RCPs. Despite important spatial heterogeneities, an increase/decrease of the intensity, duration and frequency of occurrence of the 12m-WASP intermediate-to-severe dry/wet events was found under both scenarios, mainly in the southernmost regions of Iberia (mainly Comunidad Valenciana, Región de Murcia, Andalucía in Spain, Alentejo, and Algarve in Portugal), thus becoming more exposed to prolonged and severe droughts in the future. This finding corroborates the results of previous studies.
Cristina Andrade; Joana Contente; João Santos. Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index. Climate 2021, 9, 94 .
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, Joana Contente, João Santos. Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index. Climate. 2021; 9 (6):94.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; Joana Contente; João Santos. 2021. "Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index." Climate 9, no. 6: 94.
Climate change is expected to influence cooling and heating energy demand of residential buildings and affect overall thermal comfort. Towards this end, the heating (HDD) and cooling (CDD) degree-days along with HDD + CDD were computed from an ensemble of seven high-resolution bias-corrected simulations attained from EURO-CORDEX under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). These three indicators were analyzed for 1971–2000 (from E-OBS) and 2011–2040, and 2041–2070, under both RCPs. Results predict a decrease in HDDs most significant under RCP8.5. Conversely, it is projected an increase of CDD values for both scenarios. The decrease in HDDs is projected to be higher than the increase in CDDs hinting to an increase in the energy demand to cool internal environments in Portugal. Statistically significant linear CDD trends were only found for 2041–2070 under RCP4.5. Towards 2070, higher(lower) CDD (HDD and HDD + CDD) anomaly amplitudes are depicted, mainly under RCP8.5. Within the five NUTS II regions projections revealed for 2041–2070 a decrease in heating requirements for Algarve and Lisbon Area higher in Faro, Lisboa and Setúbal whereas for North and Center regions results predicts an increase in cooling energy demand mainly in Bragança, Vila Real, Braga, Viana do Castelo, Porto and Guarda, higher under RCP8.5.
Cristina Andrade; Sandra Mourato; João Ramos. Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal. Atmosphere 2021, 12, 715 .
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, Sandra Mourato, João Ramos. Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal. Atmosphere. 2021; 12 (6):715.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; Sandra Mourato; João Ramos. 2021. "Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal." Atmosphere 12, no. 6: 715.
Climate change is expected to influence cooling and heating energy demand of residential buildings and affect overall thermal comfort. Towards this end, the heating degree-day (HDD), the cooling degree-day (CDD) and the HDD+CDD were computed from an ensemble of 7 high-resolution bias-corrected simulations attained from EURO-CORDEX under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. These three indicators were analyzed for 1971-2000 (from E-OBS) and 2011-2040 and 2041-2070, under both RCPs. Results show that the overall spatial distribution of HDD trends for the 3 time-periods points out an increase of energy demand to heat internal environments in Portugal's northern-eastern regions, most significant under RCP8.5. It is projected an increase of CDD values for both scenarios; however, statistically significant linear trends were only found for 2041-2070 under RCP4.5. The need for cooling is almost negligible for the remaining periods, though linear trend values are still considerably higher for 2041-2070 under RCP8.5. By the end of 2070, higher amplitudes for all indicators are depicted for southern Algarve and Alentejo regions, mainly under RCP8.5. For 2041-2070 the Centre and Alentejo (North and Centre) regions present major positive differences for HDD(CDD) under RCP4.5(RCP8.5), within the 5 NUTS II regions predicting higher heating(cooling) requirements for some locations.
Cristina Andrade; Sandra Mourato; João Ramos. Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, Sandra Mourato, João Ramos. Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; Sandra Mourato; João Ramos. 2021. "Heating and Cooling Degree-Days Climate Change Projections for Portugal." , no. : 1.
The WASP-Index is computed over Iberia for three monthly timescales in 1961-2020, based on an observational gridded precipitation dataset (E-OBS), and in 2021-2070, based on bias-corrected precipitation generated by a six-member climate model ensemble from EURO-CORDEX, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The WASP performance in identifying extremely dry or wet events, reported by the EM-DAT disaster database, is assessed for 1961–2020. An overall good agreement between the WASP spatial patterns and the EM-DAT records is found. The areolar mean values revealed an upward trend in the frequency of occurrence of intermediate-to-severe dry events over Iberia, which will be strengthened in the future, particularly for the 12m-WASP intermediate dry events under RCP8.5. Besides, the number of 3m-WASP intermediate-to-severe wet events is projected to increase, mostly the severest events under RCP4.5, but no evidence was found for an increase in the number of more persistent (12m-WASP) wet events under both RCPs. Despite important spatial heterogeneities, an increase(decrease) of the intensity, duration, and frequency of occurrence of the 12m-WASP intermediate-to-severe dry(wet) events is found under both scenarios, mainly in the southernmost regions of Iberia, thus becoming more exposed to prolonged and severe droughts in the future, corroborating the results from previous studies.
Cristina Andrade; Joana Contente; João Andrade Santos. Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, Joana Contente, João Andrade Santos. Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; Joana Contente; João Andrade Santos. 2021. "Climate Change Projections of Dry and Wet Events in Iberia Based on the WASP-Index." , no. : 1.
Projections of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications under future climate change for the Iberian Peninsula are investigated using a 7-ensemble mean of regional climate models obtained from EURO-CORDEX. Maps with predicted future scenarios for temperature, precipitation and Köppen-Geiger classification are analyzed for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in Iberia. Widespread statistically significant shifts in temperature, precipitation and climate regimes are projected in the 2041-2070 period, with greater shifts occurring under RCP8.5. An overall increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the south-southeast is predicted. Of the two climate types, dry (B) and temperate (C), the dominant one was C in 86% of Iberia for 1961-1990, predicted to decrease by 8.0% by 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (9.5% under RCP8.5). The hot-summer Mediterranean climate (CSa) will progressively replace CSb (warm-summer climate) in the northwestern half of Iberia until 2070. This shift, depicted by the SSIM index, is particularly noticeable in Portugal, with the projected establishment of the CSa climate by 2041-2070. The predicted retreat of humid subtropical (Cfa) and temperate oceanic (Cfb) areas in the northeast towards the Pyrenees region is noteworthy, as is the increase of desert (BW) and semi-desert (BS) climates (7.8 and 9%) in the southeast (between Granada and Valencia). Climate types BSh and BWh (hot semi-desert and hot desert, respectively), non-existent in the 1961-1990 period, are projected to represent 2.8% of the territory in 2041-2070 under RCP4.5 (5% under RCP8.5). The statistically significant projected changes hint at the disappearance of some vegetation species in certain regions of Iberia, with an expected increase in steppe, bush, grassland and wasteland vegetation cover, typical of dry climates in the southeast.
C Andrade; Joana Contente. Köppen’s climate classification projections for the Iberian Peninsula. Climate Research 2020, 81, 71 -89.
AMA StyleC Andrade, Joana Contente. Köppen’s climate classification projections for the Iberian Peninsula. Climate Research. 2020; 81 ():71-89.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC Andrade; Joana Contente. 2020. "Köppen’s climate classification projections for the Iberian Peninsula." Climate Research 81, no. : 71-89.
Climate change projections for the four major divisions of the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System in the Iberian Peninsula are analysed using a 6‐member ensemble (EURO‐CORDEX) for 1961‐1990, 1981‐2010, 2011‐2040 and 2041‐2070 periods for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The Direct forcing method was used to correct the bias of the simulated data using an observational gridded dataset (E‐OBS). Results show a decrease of the temperate areas in the north‐western region of the Iberian Peninsula, with higher expression in RCP8.5 for 2041‐2070. Major changes in bioclimates, ombrotypes and thermotypes are projected to occur in northernmost regions, as well as, central and south‐eastern areas of Iberia. The projected decrease of Mediterranean pluviseasonal areas hint at a decrease of several evergreen or deciduous forest types. Conversely, due to the projected increase of Mediterranean xeric and desertic areas it can be expected an increase of micro forests or dense shrubby lands, as well as the appearance of half deserts or low‐density scrublands. Finally, the continentality index patterns revealed a strengthening of the coastal‐inner climate contrasts in the future, mainly for RCP8.5. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Cristina Andrade; Joana Contente. Climate change projections for the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System in the Iberian Peninsula until 2070. International Journal of Climatology 2020, 40, 5863 -5886.
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, Joana Contente. Climate change projections for the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System in the Iberian Peninsula until 2070. International Journal of Climatology. 2020; 40 (14):5863-5886.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; Joana Contente. 2020. "Climate change projections for the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System in the Iberian Peninsula until 2070." International Journal of Climatology 40, no. 14: 5863-5886.
Floods are natural phenomena that have a major impact on society, agriculture and socioeconomic activities. Therefore, flood hazard mapping plays a key role in the decision-making process since it provides essential information to improve the understanding of the nature, risk and characteristics of floods. The application of a GIS-based multi-criteria analysis in the context of flood risk assessment has been recognized as a powerful tool to integrate and analyze data from different sources, thus providing different scenarios. The present work introduces the results of a preliminary assessment of flood hazard areas in the Nabão River basin located in the center of Portugal. Results show that 12.5% of Nabão River basin is prone to moderate flood hazard. It is noticeable that, 15% and 2.2% of this basin is susceptible to high and very high flood risk, respectively. These areas are those closest to Nabão River and its tributaries, as expected and are generally laying at low elevations. A high concentration within settled and paved areas, mainly affecting Tomar city and a relevant area within this municipality was also depicted. However, urban paved surfaces hinder water infiltration of runoff, thus increasing the flood risk, results also show the relevance of land use and soil type within this basin. The lower infiltration and poor planning in the vicinity of alluvial plains and river banks can also be inferred in non-urban areas that revealed to be highly vulnerable to floods.
C. Andrade; S. Rodrigues; J. A. Corte-Real. Preliminary assessment of flood hazard in Nabão River basin using an analytical hierarchy process. AIP Conference Proceedings 2018, 1978, 220002 .
AMA StyleC. Andrade, S. Rodrigues, J. A. Corte-Real. Preliminary assessment of flood hazard in Nabão River basin using an analytical hierarchy process. AIP Conference Proceedings. 2018; 1978 (1):220002.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Andrade; S. Rodrigues; J. A. Corte-Real. 2018. "Preliminary assessment of flood hazard in Nabão River basin using an analytical hierarchy process." AIP Conference Proceedings 1978, no. 1: 220002.
Cristina Andrade; Samantha Hughes; João A. Santos. 3rd International Conference on Ecohydrology, Soil and Climate Change, EcoHCC'14. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 2016, 94, 1 .
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, Samantha Hughes, João A. Santos. 3rd International Conference on Ecohydrology, Soil and Climate Change, EcoHCC'14. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C. 2016; 94 ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; Samantha Hughes; João A. Santos. 2016. "3rd International Conference on Ecohydrology, Soil and Climate Change, EcoHCC'14." Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C 94, no. : 1.
Oceanity and continentality strongly influence the climate of a region. Aiming at understanding these influences on the Iberian Peninsula climate, the spatial distributions of precipitation, air temperature and five climatic indices are analysed during the period 1901 and 2012 and in three sub-periods (1901–1940, 1941–1980 and 1981–2012). This study focuses on investigating the continental and oceanic characteristics of the Iberian climate by using the Conrad–Pollak and Johansson Continentality Indices, as well as Kerner and Marsz Oceanity Indices. Gridded precipitation and air temperature data sets are used on a monthly basis. Results reveal hyper-oceanic (maritime) characteristics in the northernmost portion of Iberia, continental in the inner region comprising Extremadura, Castile-La Mancha and Andalusia, and maritime characteristics in between. It is worth noting that within these regions the continental (maritime) characteristics become stronger (weaker) between 1981 and 2012. Statistically significant linear trends show an increase in both temperature (2–4°C) and on continental influences in the northwestern and southeastern regions of Iberia for the entire period. Statistically significant correlations are also found between the Johansson Continentality Index and both Conrad–Pollak and Marsz Oceanity Indices at a 95% confidence level, revealing a good agreement of results among these indices.
C. Andrade; João Alexandre Medina Corte-Real. Assessment of the spatial distribution of continental-oceanic climate indices in the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology 2016, 37, 36 -45.
AMA StyleC. Andrade, João Alexandre Medina Corte-Real. Assessment of the spatial distribution of continental-oceanic climate indices in the Iberian Peninsula. International Journal of Climatology. 2016; 37 (1):36-45.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Andrade; João Alexandre Medina Corte-Real. 2016. "Assessment of the spatial distribution of continental-oceanic climate indices in the Iberian Peninsula." International Journal of Climatology 37, no. 1: 36-45.
Aridity is one of the key elements characterizing the climate of a region, having a severe impact on human activities. Aiming at assessing aridity conditions in the Iberian Peninsula, the spatial distribution of the UNEP aridity index is analyzed during the period 1901−2012. Gridded precipitation and potential evapotranspiration datasets are used on a monthly basis. Results show that the southern half of Iberia is particularly vulnerable to water stress and hence to desertification processes. In particular, the UNEP aridity index reveals an increase and northward extension of the semi-arid regime in the Iberian Peninsula between 1901 and 2012. More than 50% of the north and western territory have experienced humid/sub-humid conditions, while the other regions underwent semi-arid settings. Results also reveal that climate was subjected to spatial and temporal variabilities with an overall statistically significant (at a 95% confidence level) trend to aridification in the south-easternmost and central regions. The remaining territory of the Iberian Peninsula does not reveal statistically significant trends.
C. Andrade; J. A. Corte-Real. Preliminary assessment of aridity conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS 2015 (ICNAAM 2015) 2016, 1738, 60003 .
AMA StyleC. Andrade, J. A. Corte-Real. Preliminary assessment of aridity conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS 2015 (ICNAAM 2015). 2016; 1738 ():60003.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Andrade; J. A. Corte-Real. 2016. "Preliminary assessment of aridity conditions in the Iberian Peninsula." INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS 2015 (ICNAAM 2015) 1738, no. : 60003.
The oceans and continents strongly influence the climate of a region. Aiming at understanding these influences in the Iberian Peninsula, the spatial distributions of precipitation, air temperature and four climatic indices are analyzed during the period 1901–2012. This study is focused on the annual Conrad-Pollak and Johansson Continentality Indices, as well as Kerner and Marsz Oceanity Indices. Gridded precipitation and air temperature datasets were used for the period between 1901 and 2012 on a monthly basis. Results show for this period, hyper-oceanic (maritime) characteristics in the northernmost portion of Iberia, continental in the inner region between Extremadura, Castilla La Mancha and Andalucia, and maritime characteristics in between. Statistically significant correlations were also found between the Marsz Oceanity Index and both Conrad-Pollak and Johansson Continentality Indices at a 95% confidence level, revealing a good agreement of results between these indices.
C. Andrade; J. A. Corte-Real. Spatial distribution of climate indices in the Iberian Peninsula. AIP Conference Proceedings 2015, 1 .
AMA StyleC. Andrade, J. A. Corte-Real. Spatial distribution of climate indices in the Iberian Peninsula. AIP Conference Proceedings. 2015; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Andrade; J. A. Corte-Real. 2015. "Spatial distribution of climate indices in the Iberian Peninsula." AIP Conference Proceedings , no. : 1.
This paper analyses the temporal and spatial variability of droughts in Iberia (IP) and in five IP regions (1951−2007) using four observational precipitation‐gridded data sets. Droughts were analysed by means of the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation (WASP) for 3‐, 6‐ and 12‐month time scales. WASP‐Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index are highly correlated. The major drought spells at Iberian scale are identified by the four data sets. Moreover, the droughts frequency and severity increased from the late 1980s. Finally, in western Iberia, statistically significant drying trends are detected. In eastern Iberia, larger uncertainties are found on the trends signal.
C. Andrade; Margarida Belo-Pereira. Assessment of droughts in the Iberian Peninsula using the WASP-Index. Atmospheric Science Letters 2014, 16, 208 -218.
AMA StyleC. Andrade, Margarida Belo-Pereira. Assessment of droughts in the Iberian Peninsula using the WASP-Index. Atmospheric Science Letters. 2014; 16 (3):208-218.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Andrade; Margarida Belo-Pereira. 2014. "Assessment of droughts in the Iberian Peninsula using the WASP-Index." Atmospheric Science Letters 16, no. 3: 208-218.
C. Andrade; Helder Fraga; João Carlos Andrade dos Santos. Climate change multi-model projections for temperature extremes in Portugal. Atmospheric Science Letters 2013, 15, 149 -156.
AMA StyleC. Andrade, Helder Fraga, João Carlos Andrade dos Santos. Climate change multi-model projections for temperature extremes in Portugal. Atmospheric Science Letters. 2013; 15 (2):149-156.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Andrade; Helder Fraga; João Carlos Andrade dos Santos. 2013. "Climate change multi-model projections for temperature extremes in Portugal." Atmospheric Science Letters 15, no. 2: 149-156.
Cristina Andrade; João Carlos Andrade dos Santos; Ricardo Trigo; J. Corte-Real. Preface "2nd International Conference on Ecohydrology and Climate Change". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 2013, 13, 1853 -1856.
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, João Carlos Andrade dos Santos, Ricardo Trigo, J. Corte-Real. Preface "2nd International Conference on Ecohydrology and Climate Change". Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 2013; 13 (7):1853-1856.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; João Carlos Andrade dos Santos; Ricardo Trigo; J. Corte-Real. 2013. "Preface "2nd International Conference on Ecohydrology and Climate Change"." Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 13, no. 7: 1853-1856.
The strong irregularity of precipitation in Portugal, which may e.g. trigger severe/extreme droughts and floods, results in a high vulnerability of the country to precipitation inter-annual variability and to its extremes. Furthermore, dryer future climates are projected for Portugal, though there has also been some growing evidence for a strengthening of precipitation extremes. Due to the central role played byprecipitation on many socio-economic sectors and environmental systems, regional climate change assessments for precipitation in Portugal are necessary. This study is focused on analyzing climate change projections for seasonal (3-month) precipitation totals and their corresponding extremes over mainland Portugal. Taking into account the strong seasonality of the precipitation regimes in Portugal, winter (DJF) and summer (JJA) are considered separately. Precipitation datasets generated by a 16-member ensemble of regional climate model experiments from the ENSEMBLES project are used. Percentile-based indices of precipitation are computed and analyzed for a recent past period (1961-2000) and for a near future period (2041-2070). Results for the R5p, R50p and R95p indices highlight significant projected changes in precipitation, with a clear distinction between northwestern Portugal and the rest of the country in both seasons. Overall, precipitation is projected to decrease in both seasons, particularly over northwestern Portugal in winter, despite some significant regional differences. Although precipitation is projected to decrease in most cases, extremely high seasonal precipitations (above the 95th percentile)areexpected to increase in winter.
Cristina Andrade; J. A. Santos. Climate change projections for precipitation in Portugal. 11TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS 2013: ICNAAM 2013 2013, 829 -832.
AMA StyleCristina Andrade, J. A. Santos. Climate change projections for precipitation in Portugal. 11TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS 2013: ICNAAM 2013. 2013; ():829-832.
Chicago/Turabian StyleCristina Andrade; J. A. Santos. 2013. "Climate change projections for precipitation in Portugal." 11TH INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE OF NUMERICAL ANALYSIS AND APPLIED MATHEMATICS 2013: ICNAAM 2013 , no. : 829-832.
Samantha Jane Hughes; Edna Cabecinha; João Carlos Andrade Dos Santos; Cristina Maria Mendes Andrade; Domingos Manuel Mendes Lopes; Henrique Manuel Da Fonseca Trindade; João Alexandre Ferreira Abel Dos Santos Cabral; Mário Gabriel Santiago Dos Santos; José Manuel Martinho Lourenço; José Tadeu Marques Aranha; Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes; Maria Manuela Morais; Maria Solange Mendonça Leite; Paula Cristina Ribeiro Coutinho De Oliveira; Rui Manuel Vitor Cortes. A predictive modelling tool for assessing climate, land use and hydrological change on reservoir physicochemical and biological properties. Area 2012, 44, 432 -442.
AMA StyleSamantha Jane Hughes, Edna Cabecinha, João Carlos Andrade Dos Santos, Cristina Maria Mendes Andrade, Domingos Manuel Mendes Lopes, Henrique Manuel Da Fonseca Trindade, João Alexandre Ferreira Abel Dos Santos Cabral, Mário Gabriel Santiago Dos Santos, José Manuel Martinho Lourenço, José Tadeu Marques Aranha, Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes, Maria Manuela Morais, Maria Solange Mendonça Leite, Paula Cristina Ribeiro Coutinho De Oliveira, Rui Manuel Vitor Cortes. A predictive modelling tool for assessing climate, land use and hydrological change on reservoir physicochemical and biological properties. Area. 2012; 44 (4):432-442.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSamantha Jane Hughes; Edna Cabecinha; João Carlos Andrade Dos Santos; Cristina Maria Mendes Andrade; Domingos Manuel Mendes Lopes; Henrique Manuel Da Fonseca Trindade; João Alexandre Ferreira Abel Dos Santos Cabral; Mário Gabriel Santiago Dos Santos; José Manuel Martinho Lourenço; José Tadeu Marques Aranha; Luís Filipe Sanches Fernandes; Maria Manuela Morais; Maria Solange Mendonça Leite; Paula Cristina Ribeiro Coutinho De Oliveira; Rui Manuel Vitor Cortes. 2012. "A predictive modelling tool for assessing climate, land use and hydrological change on reservoir physicochemical and biological properties." Area 44, no. 4: 432-442.