To significantly impact climate change, the annual photovoltaic (PV) module production rate must dramatically increase from ∼135 gigawatts (GW) in 2020 to ∼3 terawatts (TW) around 2030. A key knowledge gap is the sustainable manufacturing capacity of existing and future commercial PV cell technologies imposed by scarce metals, and a suitable pathway towards sustainable manufacturing at the multi-TW scale. Assuming an upper material consumption limit as 20% of 2019 global supply, we show that the present industrial implementations of passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC), tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon), and silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells have sustainable manufacturing capacities of 377 GW (silver-limited), 227 GW (silver-limited) GW and 37 GW (indium-limited), respectively. We propose material consumption targets of 2 mg W⁻¹, 0.38 mg W⁻¹, and 1.8 mg W⁻¹ for silver, indium, and bismuth, respectively, indicating significant material consumption reductions are required to meet the target production rate for sustainable multi-TW scale manufacturing in about ten years from now. The industry needs urgent innovation on screen printing technologies for PERC, TOPCon, and SHJ solar cells to reduce silver consumption beyond expectation in the Industrial Technology Roadmap for PV (ITPRV), or the widespread adoption of existing and proven copper plating technologies. Indium cannot be used in any significant manufacturing capacity for PV production, even for futuristic 30%-efficient tandem devices. The current implementation of low-temperature interconnection schemes using bismuth-based solders will be limited to 330 GW of production. With half the silver-limited sustainable manufacturing capacity as PERC, the limited efficiency gains of SHJ and TOPCon cell technologies do not justify a transition away from industrial PERC, or the introduction of indium- and bismuth limitations for SHJ solar cells. On the other hand, futuristic two-terminal tandems with efficiency potentials over 30% have a unique opportunity to reduce material consumption through substantially reduced series resistance losses.

Herein, the current and future projected polysilicon demand for the photovoltaic (PV) industry toward broad electrification scenarios with 63.4 TW of PV installed by 2050 is studied. The current polysilicon demand by the PV industry in 2021 is equivalent to the consumption of 2.9–3.3 kt GW⁻¹. Depending on the physical constraints determining the lower limit for future polysilicon consumption, the annual demand can be 6–7 Mt year⁻¹ in 2050 under broad electrification, which requires 10–12 times more of the current production capacity. To achieve broad electrification by 2050, cumulative demand of 46–87 Mt is required. An electricity requirement for purification, ingot pulling, and wafering of ≈360–380 kWh kg⁻¹ for silicon wafers and carbon intensity can lead to a cumulative amount of ≈16.4–58.8 Gt of CO_2‐eq emissions by 2050. To reduce the environmental impact, efficiencies are increased, thinner wafers are used, kerf loss reduced, alternative purification methods with low emission intensities are explored, and opportunities for polysilicon production with decarbonized electricity are explored.

In this work, the efficiency potential of the fully screen-printed passivated emitter and rear contact (PERC) solar cell structure is investigated via numerical simulations. A series of improvements and optimizations are performed on bulk quality, emitter properties and metallization of screen-printed PERC solar cells based on experimental results obtained in both industry and laboratory environments. With significantly improved bulk and surface passivation quality, we find that carrier recombination losses at the metal/silicon interface will impose a substantial limitation on efficiencies, highlighting the need for developing new screen-printing technologies to overcome the limitation from contact recombination. By improving the effectiveness of the back-surface field, reducing coverage area of laser-doped selective emitters and the front metal/silicon interface contact area, a 15 mV improvement in open-circuit voltage (V _OC) was achieved in our modelled cells, due to greatly reduced contact recombination losses. With the further implementation of a multi-busbar and fine-line printing technologies, efficiency above 24% was obtained from simulations. Subsequently, a comprehensive pathway towards 24% efficiency for screen-printed PERC solar cells is proposed, without the need to implement passivated contacts or transition to a plated metallisation scheme. Key target requirements for future developments are also identified.

With its wide bandgap and good diode performance, GaAsP is an excellent candidate for the top cell in a silicon-based multijunction tandem device. Even though the material is not lattice matched to silicon, inclusion of a graded SiGe buffer between the GaAsP layer and the Si substrate has previously been demonstrated to enable lattice matching. The SiGe layer may then serve as a high-quality current-matched bottom cell to form a tandem dual-junction structure. This paper describes the design, fabrication, analysis, and improvement of the GaAsP top solar cell in a three-terminal GaAsP/SiGe tandem solar cell on a silicon substrate. Uncertified GaAsP top cell efficiencies have been improved from 8.4% to 18.4% with bandgap voltage offsets (W _oc ) of 0.48 and 0.31 V under concentration factors of 1 and 20 ×, respectively. This progress is made by improved III-V material quality, reduced series resistance, and an addition of antireflection coating. Improving the optics, material quality, and fill factor (FF) should further improve the efficiency of the GaAsP top cell in this tandem structure grown on an Si substrate.