To significantly impact climate change, the annual photovoltaic (PV) module production rate must dramatically increase from ∼135 gigawatts (GW) in 2020 to ∼3 terawatts (TW) around 2030. A key knowledge gap is the sustainable manufacturing capacity of existing and future commercial PV cell technologies imposed by scarce metals, and a suitable pathway towards sustainable manufacturing at the multi-TW scale. Assuming an upper material consumption limit as 20% of 2019 global supply, we show that the present industrial implementations of passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC), tunnel oxide passivated contact (TOPCon), and silicon heterojunction (SHJ) cells have sustainable manufacturing capacities of 377 GW (silver-limited), 227 GW (silver-limited) GW and 37 GW (indium-limited), respectively. We propose material consumption targets of 2 mg W⁻¹, 0.38 mg W⁻¹, and 1.8 mg W⁻¹ for silver, indium, and bismuth, respectively, indicating significant material consumption reductions are required to meet the target production rate for sustainable multi-TW scale manufacturing in about ten years from now. The industry needs urgent innovation on screen printing technologies for PERC, TOPCon, and SHJ solar cells to reduce silver consumption beyond expectation in the Industrial Technology Roadmap for PV (ITPRV), or the widespread adoption of existing and proven copper plating technologies. Indium cannot be used in any significant manufacturing capacity for PV production, even for futuristic 30%-efficient tandem devices. The current implementation of low-temperature interconnection schemes using bismuth-based solders will be limited to 330 GW of production. With half the silver-limited sustainable manufacturing capacity as PERC, the limited efficiency gains of SHJ and TOPCon cell technologies do not justify a transition away from industrial PERC, or the introduction of indium- and bismuth limitations for SHJ solar cells. On the other hand, futuristic two-terminal tandems with efficiency potentials over 30% have a unique opportunity to reduce material consumption through substantially reduced series resistance losses.

The clean energy transition could see the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaics increase from 1 TW before the end of 2022 to 15–60 TW by 2050, creating a significant silver demand risk. Here, we present a silver learning curve for the photovoltaic industry with a learning rate of 20.3 ± 0.8%. Maintaining business as usual with a dominance of p‐type technology could require over 20% of the current annual silver supply by 2027 and a cumulative 450–520 kt of silver until 2050, approximately 85–98% of the current global silver reserves. A rapid transition to higher efficiency tunnel oxide passivated contact and silicon heterojunction cell technologies in their present silver‐intensive forms could increase and accelerate silver demand. As we approach annual production capacities of over 1 TW by 2030, addressing the silver issue requires increased efforts in research and development to increase the silver learning rate by 30%, with existing silver‐lean and silver‐free metallisation approaches including copper plating and screen‐printing of aluminium and copper.

Advanced hydrogenation processes targeting the generation of neutrally charged hydrogen (H°) are applied to passivate structural defects in seeded-cast quasi mono-crystalline silicon wafers and boron-oxygen defects in Czochralski silicon. The application of a one minute laser hydrogenation process onto a finished screen printed solar cell fabricated on the dislocation-rich seeded-cast material resulted in efficiency enhancements of 0.6% absolute through improvements in the implied open circuit voltage and internal quantum efficiency in the vicinity of the dislocated regions. A new insight is presented on the formation of boron-oxygen defects with a strong dependence on illumination intensity. An advanced laser hydrogenation process is presented to rapidly form and hydrogenate boron-oxygen defects simultaneously, in an 8 s process applied directly after belt furnace firing, with the hydrogenation of more than 95% of boron-oxygen defects at a peak temperature of approximately 360°C on lifetime test structures. The same 8 s process is also demonstrated on standard screen-printed solar cells applied directly after belt furnace firing to simultaneously form- and hydrogenate the boron-oxygen defects, with no subsequent loss in electrical performance, hence avoiding a 0.7% absolute loss in efficiency due to light-induced degradation