The role of immune responses to previously seen endemic coronavirus epitopes in severe acute respiratory coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and disease progression has not yet been determined. Here, we show that a key characteristic of fatal outcomes with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is that the immune response to the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein is enriched for antibodies directed against epitopes shared with endemic beta-coronaviruses and has a lower proportion of antibodies targeting the more protective variable regions of the spike. The magnitude of antibody responses to the SARS-CoV-2 full-length spike protein, its domains and subunits, and the SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid also correlated strongly with responses to the endemic beta-coronavirus spike proteins in individuals admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with fatal COVID-19 outcomes, but not in individuals with nonfatal outcomes. This correlation was found to be due to the antibody response directed at the S2 subunit of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein, which has the highest degree of conservation between the beta-coronavirus spike proteins. Intriguingly, antibody responses to the less cross-reactive SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid were not significantly different in individuals who were admitted to an ICU with fatal and nonfatal outcomes, suggesting an antibody profile in individuals with fatal outcomes consistent with an “original antigenic sin” type response.

The antigenic drift theory states that influenza evolves via the gradual accumulation of mutations, decreasing a host’s immune protection against previous strains. Influenza vaccines are designed accordingly, under the premise of antigenic drift. However, a paradox exists at the centre of influenza research. If influenza evolved primarily through mutation in multiple epitopes, multiple influenza strains should co-circulate. Such a multitude of strains would render influenza vaccines quickly inefficacious. Instead, a single or limited number of strains dominate circulation each influenza season. Unless additional constraints are placed on the evolution of influenza, antigenic drift does not adequately explain these observations. Here, we explore the constraints placed on antigenic drift and a competing theory of influenza evolution – antigenic thrift. In contrast to antigenic drift, antigenic thrift states that immune selection targets epitopes of limited variability, which constrain the variability of the virus. We explain the implications of antigenic drift and antigenic thrift and explore their current and potential uses in the context of influenza vaccine design.

Changing landscapes across the globe, but particularly in Southeast Asia, are pushing humans and animals closer together and may increase the likelihood of zoonotic spillover events. Malaysian Borneo is hypothesized to be at high risk of spillover events due to proximity between reservoir species and humans caused by recent deforestation in the region. However, the relationship between landscape and human-animal contact rates has yet to be quantified. An environmentally stratified cross-sectional survey was conducted in Sabah, Malaysia in 2015, collecting geolocated questionnaire data on potential risk factors for contact with animals for 10,100 individuals. 51% of individuals reported contact with poultry, 46% with NHPs, 30% with bats, and 2% with swine. Generalised linear mixed models identified occupational and demographic factors associated with increased contact with these species, which varied when comparing wildlife to domesticated animals. Reported contact rates with each animal group were integrated with remote sensing-derived environmental data within a Bayesian framework to identify regions with high probabilities of contact with animal reservoirs. We have identified high spatial heterogeneity of contact with animals and clear associations between agricultural practices and high animal rates. This approach will help inform public health campaigns in at-risk populations and can improve pathogen surveillance efforts on Malaysian Borneo. This method can additionally serve as a framework for researchers looking to identify targets for future pathogen detection in a chosen region of study.

Sustained mammal-to-mammal transmission of high pathogenicity H5N1avian influenza viruses is reshaping the host range of these pathogens. One of the longest-running mammalian transmission chains involves the B3.13 genotype circulating in U.S. dairy cattle which was detected early in 2024. Genomic analysis revealed selection and rapid fixation of haemagglutinin mutations D104G and V147M. We demonstate, via glycomic profiling, that bovine tissues, including the mammary gland, are enriched in N- and O-linked glycans capped with N-glycolylneuraminic acid (NeuGc), a sialic acid absent in humans and birds, which instead express only N-acetylneuraminic acid (NeuAc). Early cattle H5 viruses poorly recognized NeuGc, but D104G and V147M enabled efficient engagement of both NeuAc- and NeuGc-containing receptors. These mutations enhanced replication in bovine mammary tissue without major attenuation of replication in human lung and primary nasal epithelial cells. NeuGc-driven receptor adaptation therefore promotes viral fitness in cattle while potentially limiting immediate zoonotic risk. Deep mutational scanning further identifies alternative haemagglutinin substitutions that confer NeuGc usage and represent surveillance markers for emerging cattle H5 lineages.

Cases of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenzas (HPAI) are on the rise. Although mammalian spillover events are rare, H5N1 viruses have an estimated mortality rate in humans of 60%. No human cases of H5 infection have been reported in Malaysian Borneo, but HPAI has circulated in poultry and migratory avian species transiting through the region. Recent deforestation in coastal habitats in Malaysian Borneo may increase the proximity between humans and migratory birds. We hypothesise that higher rates of human-animal contact, caused by this habitat destruction, will increase the likelihood of potential zoonotic spillover events. In 2015, an environmentally stratified cross-sectional survey was conducted collecting geolocated questionnaire data in 10,100 individuals. A serological survey of these individuals reveals evidence of H5 neutralisation that persisted following depletion of seasonal H1/H3 HA binding antibodies from the plasma. The presence of these antibodies suggests that some individuals living near migratory sites may have been exposed to H5 HA. There is a spatial and environmental overlap between individuals displaying high H5 HA binding and the distribution of migratory birds. We have developed a novel surveillance approach including both spatial and serological data to detect potential spillover events, highlighting the urgent need to study cross-species pathogen transmission in migratory zones.

It is unclear whether prior endemic coronavirus infections affect COVID-19 severity. Here, we show that in cases of fatal COVID-19, antibody responses to the SARS-COV-2 spike are directed against epitopes shared with endemic beta-coronaviruses in the S2 subunit of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. This immune response is associated with the compromised production of a de novo SARS-CoV-2 spike response among individuals with fatal COVID-19 outcomes. Funding: This work was supported by the Georg and Emily von Opel Foundation, the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) [award CO-­‐CIN-­‐01], the Medical Research Council [grant MC_PC_19059], ME was supported by The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust on May 31, 2021 for the project titled, "ICARUS –IBD: International study of COVID-­‐19 Antibody Response Under Sustained immune suppression in Inflammatory Bowel Disease. RP also supported by funds provided under Professor RW Snow’s Wellcome Trust Principal Fellowship (# 212176). Meso Scale Diagnostics (USA) provided loan of equipment, reagents and technical support. JSB was supported by funding from the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) [grant number BB/M011224/1]. CPT was funded by an ERC research grant UNIFLUVAC’ and two MRC CiC grants (Ref: BR00140). ALM is funded by a NIHR Research Capability Funding grant. HJK is supported by The Future of Humanity Institute at the University of Oxford DPhil Scholarship program. DE is funded by the Robertson Foundation. The funders played no role in the design, execution or reporting of the study. Declaration of Interest: DE declares lecture fees from Gilead. CPT and SG hold funding from Blue Water Vaccines. All others have nothing to disclose. Ethical Approval: Ethical approval was obtained for the Scottish National Blood Transfusion Service (SNBTS) anonymous archive -­‐ IRAS project number 18005. SNBTS blood donors gave fully informed consent to virological testing, donation was made under the SNBTS Blood Establishment Authorisation and the study was approved by the SNBTS Research and Sample Governance Committee.