New Internet of Things (IoT) applications are enabling the development of projects that help with monitoring people with different diseases in their daily lives. Alzheimer’s is a disease that affects neurological functions and needs support to maintain maximum independence and security of patients during this stage of life, as the cure and reversal of symptoms have not yet been discovered. The IoT-based monitoring system provides the caregivers’ support in monitoring people with Alzheimer’s disease (AD). This paper presents an ontology-based computational model that receives physiological data from external IoT applications, allowing identification of potentially dangerous behaviors for patients with AD. The main scientific contribution of this work is the specification of a model focusing on Alzheimer’s disease using the analysis of context histories and context prediction, which, considering the state of the art, is the only one that uses analysis of context histories to perform predictions. In this research, we also propose a simulator to generate activities of the daily life of patients, allowing the creation of data sets. These data sets were used to evaluate the contributions of the model and were generated according to the standardization of the ontology. The simulator generated 1026 scenarios applied to guide the predictions, which achieved average accurary of 97.44%. The experiments also allowed the learning of 20 relevant lessons on technological, medical, and methodological aspects that are recorded in this article.