We explore the large spatial variation in the relationship between population density and burned area, using continental-scale Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) based on 13 years of satellite-derived burned area maps from the global fire emissions database (GFED) and the human population density from the gridded population of the world (GPW 2005). Significant relationships are observed over 51.5% of the global land area, and the area affected varies from continent to continent: population density has a significant impact on fire over most of Asia and Africa but is important in explaining fire over < 22% of Europe and Australia. Increasing population density is associated with both increased and decreased in fire. The nature of the relationship depends on land-use: increasing population density is associated with increased burned are in rangelands but with decreased burned area in croplands. Overall, the relationship between population density and burned area is non-monotonic: burned area initially increases with population density and then decreases when population density exceeds a threshold. These thresholds vary regionally. Our study contributes to improved understanding of how human activities relate to burned area, and should contribute to a better estimate of atmospheric emissions from biomass burning.

Each wildfire has its own “history”, burns under specific conditions and leads to unique environmental impacts. Information on where and when it has started and its duration is important to improve understanding on the dynamics of individual wildfires. This information is typically included in fire databases that are known to have: (i) multiple error sources; (ii) limited spatial coverage and/or time span, and; (iii) often unknown accuracy and uncertainty. Satellite data have a large potential to reduce such limitations. We used active fire data from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) to estimate fire start/end dates and ignition location(s) for large wildfires that occurred in Alaska, Portugal, Greece, California and southeastern Australia. We assessed the agreement between satellite-derived estimates and data from fire databases, and determined the associated uncertainty. Fire dates and ignition location(s) were estimated for circa 76% of the total burnt area extent for the five study regions. The ability to estimate fire dates and ignitions from satellite data increased with fire size. The agreement between reported and estimated fire dates was very good for start dates (Model efficiency index, MEF = 0.91) and reasonable for end dates (MEF = 0.73). The spatio-temporal agreement between reported and satellite-derived wildfire ignitions showed temporal lags and distances within 12 h and 2 km, respectively. Uncertainties associated with ignition estimates were generally larger than the disagreements with data reported in fire databases. Our results show how satellite data can contribute to improve information regarding dates and ignitions of large wildfires. This contribution can be particularly relevant in regions with scarce fire information, while in well-documented areas it can be used to complement, potentially detect, and correct inconsistencies in existing fire databases. Using data from other existing and/or upcoming satellites should significantly contribute to reduce errors and uncertainties in satellite-derived fire dates and ignitions, as well as improve coverage of small fires.

The extreme 2017 fire season in Portugal led to widespread recognition of the need for a paradigm shift in forest and wildfire management. We focused our study on Alvares, a parish in central Portugal located in a fire-prone area, which had 60% of its area burned in 2017. We evaluated how different fuel treatment strategies may reduce wildfire hazard in Alvares through (i) a fuel break network with different extents corresponding to different levels of priority and (ii) random fuel treatments resulting from a potential increase in stand-level management intensity. To assess this, we developed a stochastic wildfire simulation system (FUNC-SIM) that integrates uncertainties in fuel distribution over the landscape. If the landscape remains unchanged, Alvares will have large burn probabilities in the north, northeast and center-east areas of the parish that are very often associated with high fireline intensities. The different fuel treatment scenarios decreased burned area between 12.1–31.2%, resulting from 1–4.6% increases in the annual treatment area and reduced the likelihood of wildfires larger than 5000 ha by 10–40%. On average, simulated burned area decreased 0.22% per each ha treated, and cost-effectiveness decreased with increasing area treated. Overall, both fuel treatment strategies effectively reduced wildfire hazard and should be part of a larger, holistic and integrated plan to reduce the vulnerability of the Alvares parish to wildfires.