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Zhipin Ai; Naota Hanasaki; Vera Heck; Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori. Global bioenergy with carbon capture and storage potential is largely constrained by sustainable irrigation. Nature Sustainability 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleZhipin Ai, Naota Hanasaki, Vera Heck, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori. Global bioenergy with carbon capture and storage potential is largely constrained by sustainable irrigation. Nature Sustainability. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleZhipin Ai; Naota Hanasaki; Vera Heck; Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori. 2021. "Global bioenergy with carbon capture and storage potential is largely constrained by sustainable irrigation." Nature Sustainability , no. : 1.
The movement toward low-carbon human system over the last decade has been remarkable. Numerical scenarios describing future energy and land-use systems that attain climate change mitigation goals have been considered important sources of guidance for climate policymaking. However, no clear strategy for materialising green growth, i.e. vastly reducing greenhouse gas emissions without diminishing economic growth, has been outlined. Here, we describe the conditions needed for green growth under a wide range of carbon budgets. The results indicate that integration of multiple socioeconomic transformative measures would support green growth, including lowering energy demand, shifting to an environmentally friendly food system, technological progress on energy technologies and the stimulus of capital formation induced by green investment. No single measure is sufficient to offset mitigation costs fully, indicating that holistic societal transformation is needed, as the realisation of all measures depends on effective government policies as well as uncertain social and technological changes.
Shinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Tomoko Hasegawa. Conditions for low-carbon green growth. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Ken Oshiro, Tomoko Hasegawa. Conditions for low-carbon green growth. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Ken Oshiro; Tomoko Hasegawa. 2021. "Conditions for low-carbon green growth." , no. : 1.
Model output data for "Fujimori et al., Potential impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural markets and food security" submitted to Nature Food
Shinichiro Fujimori; Wenchao Wu. Model output data for Fujimori et al., Potential impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural markets and food security. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Wenchao Wu. Model output data for Fujimori et al., Potential impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural markets and food security. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Wenchao Wu. 2021. "Model output data for Fujimori et al., Potential impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural markets and food security." , no. : 1.
Model output data for "Fujimori et al., Potential impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural markets and food security" submitted to Nature Food
Shinichiro Fujimori; Wenchao Wu. Model output data for Fujimori et al., Potential impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural markets and food security. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Wenchao Wu. Model output data for Fujimori et al., Potential impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural markets and food security. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Wenchao Wu. 2021. "Model output data for Fujimori et al., Potential impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural markets and food security." , no. : 1.
One of the major barriers to climate communication is that climate change is often presented to the public in such a way that impacts seem distant in time. To improve how climate change resonates with people, we propose a simple indicator: how many extreme events (hot days and heavy precipitation days) are grandchildren projected to experience that their grandparents will not experience in their lives? We analyse the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 ensemble. During grandchildren's lifetime (2020–2100) under the shared socioeconomic pathway 5–8.5 (SSP5-8.5), in some tropical regions, they are projected to experience >1000 hot days and >5 heavy precipitation days breaking records set in their grandparents' lifetime until 2040. These numbers of unprecedented hot days and heavy precipitation days under SSP5-8.5 are greater in countries with lower CO2 emissions and income per capita than in countries with higher CO2 emissions and income per capita. We show that not only the numbers of unprecedented hot days and heavy precipitation days but also their unevenness across countries can be significantly lowered in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, which is consistent with the 2 °C goal of the Paris Agreement. This new approach would help adults easily understand how their climate change mitigation efforts could decrease the unprecedented extreme events during youths' lifetime and reduce the intergenerational and intragenerational inequalities regarding extreme events.
Hideo Shiogama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuko Kameyama; Seita Emori. How many hot days and heavy precipitation days will grandchildren experience that break the records set in their grandparents’ lives? Environmental Research Communications 2021, 3, 061002 .
AMA StyleHideo Shiogama, Shinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Yasuko Kameyama, Seita Emori. How many hot days and heavy precipitation days will grandchildren experience that break the records set in their grandparents’ lives? Environmental Research Communications. 2021; 3 (6):061002.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHideo Shiogama; Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Yasuko Kameyama; Seita Emori. 2021. "How many hot days and heavy precipitation days will grandchildren experience that break the records set in their grandparents’ lives?" Environmental Research Communications 3, no. 6: 061002.
National-level climate actions will be vital in achieving global temperature goals in the coming decades. Near-term (2025–2030) plans are laid out in Nationally Determined Contributions; the next step is the submission of long-term strategies for 2050. At present, national scenarios underpinning long-term strategies are poorly coordinated and incompatible across countries, preventing assessment of individual nations’ climate policies. Here we present a systematic and standardized, yet flexible, scenario framework varying 2050 emissions to build long-term national energy and climate mitigation scenarios. Applying the framework to six major Asian countries reveals individual challenges in energy system transformation and investment needs in comparable scenarios. This framework could be a starting point for comprehensive assessments as input to the Global Stocktake over the coming years. There is no common structure for the way national emissions scenarios are created, hindering efforts for comparison and analysis at the larger scale. This Perspective presents a framework to guide individual national scenario creation in a standardized way.
Shinichiro Fujimori; Volker Krey; Detlef van Vuuren; Ken Oshiro; Masahiro Sugiyama; Puttipong Chunark; Bundit Limmeechokchai; Shivika Mittal; Osamu Nishiura; Chan Park; Salony Rajbhandari; Diego Silva Herran; Tran Thanh Tu; Shiya Zhao; Yuki Ochi; Priyardarshi R. Shukla; Toshihiko Masui; Phuong V. H. Nguyen; Anique-Marie Cabardos; Keywan Riahi. A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions. Nature Climate Change 2021, 11, 472 -480.
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Volker Krey, Detlef van Vuuren, Ken Oshiro, Masahiro Sugiyama, Puttipong Chunark, Bundit Limmeechokchai, Shivika Mittal, Osamu Nishiura, Chan Park, Salony Rajbhandari, Diego Silva Herran, Tran Thanh Tu, Shiya Zhao, Yuki Ochi, Priyardarshi R. Shukla, Toshihiko Masui, Phuong V. H. Nguyen, Anique-Marie Cabardos, Keywan Riahi. A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions. Nature Climate Change. 2021; 11 (6):472-480.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Volker Krey; Detlef van Vuuren; Ken Oshiro; Masahiro Sugiyama; Puttipong Chunark; Bundit Limmeechokchai; Shivika Mittal; Osamu Nishiura; Chan Park; Salony Rajbhandari; Diego Silva Herran; Tran Thanh Tu; Shiya Zhao; Yuki Ochi; Priyardarshi R. Shukla; Toshihiko Masui; Phuong V. H. Nguyen; Anique-Marie Cabardos; Keywan Riahi. 2021. "A framework for national scenarios with varying emission reductions." Nature Climate Change 11, no. 6: 472-480.
As part of ENGAGE project (Horizon 2020; 821471), an assessment of quantitative, model-based climate change national mitigation pathways was conducted. The compilation and assessment of the scenario ensemble was conducted by authors of Fujimori et al. (2021) Nature Climate Change, and the resource is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
Shinichiro Fujimori. ENGAGE National database for Nature Climate Change Perspective (Fujimori et al., 2021). 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori. ENGAGE National database for Nature Climate Change Perspective (Fujimori et al., 2021). . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori. 2021. "ENGAGE National database for Nature Climate Change Perspective (Fujimori et al., 2021)." , no. : 1.
As part of ENGAGE project (Horizon 2020; 821471), an assessment of quantitative, model-based climate change national mitigation pathways was conducted. The compilation and assessment of the scenario ensemble was conducted by authors of Fujimori et al. (2021) Nature Climate Change, and the resource is hosted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
Shinichiro Fujimori. ENGAGE National database for Nature Climate Change Perspective (Fujimori et al., 2021). 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori. ENGAGE National database for Nature Climate Change Perspective (Fujimori et al., 2021). . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori. 2021. "ENGAGE National database for Nature Climate Change Perspective (Fujimori et al., 2021)." , no. : 1.
Globally, many parts of fire emissions are driven by deforestation. However, few studies have attempted to evaluate deforestation and vegetation degradation fires (DDF) and predict how they will change in the future. In this study, we expanded a fire model used in the Community Land Model to reflect the diverse causes of DDF. This enabled us to differentiate DDFs by cause (climate change, wood harvesting, and cropland, pastureland, and urban land‐use changes) and seasonality. We then predicted the state of fire regimes in the 2050s and 2090s under RCP 2.6 and RCP 6.0 scenarios. Our results indicate that the area affected by global total fires will decrease from the current 452 to 211–378 Mha yr−1 in the 2090s under RCP 6.0 and to 184–333 Mha yr−1 under RCP 2.6, mainly due to socioeconomic factors such as population and economic growth. We also predict that DDF will decrease from the current 73 million hectares per year (Mha yr−1) to 54–66 Mha yr−1 in the 2090s under RCP 6.0 and 46–55 Mha yr−1 under RCP 2.6. The main contributor to these decreases in DDF burned area was climate change, especially the increasing of precipitation. The impact of future land use change on future DDF was similar or slightly lower than present‐day. South America, Indonesia, and Australia were identified as high‐risk regions for future DDF, mainly due to the expansion of wood harvest and pastureland. Appropriate land and fire management policies will be needed to reduce future fire damage in these areas.
C. Y. Park; K. Takahashi; J. Takakura; F. Li; S. Fujimori; T. Hasegawa; A. Ito; D. K. Lee. How Will Deforestation and Vegetation Degradation Affect Global Fire Activity? Earth's Future 2021, 9, 1 .
AMA StyleC. Y. Park, K. Takahashi, J. Takakura, F. Li, S. Fujimori, T. Hasegawa, A. Ito, D. K. Lee. How Will Deforestation and Vegetation Degradation Affect Global Fire Activity? Earth's Future. 2021; 9 (5):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleC. Y. Park; K. Takahashi; J. Takakura; F. Li; S. Fujimori; T. Hasegawa; A. Ito; D. K. Lee. 2021. "How Will Deforestation and Vegetation Degradation Affect Global Fire Activity?" Earth's Future 9, no. 5: 1.
Peter Rafaj; Gregor Kiesewetter; Volker Krey; Wolfgang Schoepp; Christoph Bertram; Laurent Drouet; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Mathijs Harmsen; Jérôme Hilaire; Daniel Huppmann; Zbigniew Klimont; Peter Kolp; Lara Aleluia Reis; Detlef van Vuuren. Corrigendum: Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 045005). Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 059501 .
AMA StylePeter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Volker Krey, Wolfgang Schoepp, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire, Daniel Huppmann, Zbigniew Klimont, Peter Kolp, Lara Aleluia Reis, Detlef van Vuuren. Corrigendum: Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 045005). Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (5):059501.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter Rafaj; Gregor Kiesewetter; Volker Krey; Wolfgang Schoepp; Christoph Bertram; Laurent Drouet; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Mathijs Harmsen; Jérôme Hilaire; Daniel Huppmann; Zbigniew Klimont; Peter Kolp; Lara Aleluia Reis; Detlef van Vuuren. 2021. "Corrigendum: Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis (2021 Environ. Res. Lett. 16 045005)." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 5: 059501.
Mathijs Harmsen; Elmar Kriegler; Detlef P van Vuuren; Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst; Gunnar Luderer; Ryna Cui; Olivier Dessens; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Jennifer Faye Morris; Florian Fosse; Dimitris Fragkiadakis; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; David Gernaat; Céline Guivarch; Gokul Iyer; Panagiotis Karkatsoulis; Ilkka Keppo; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Köberle; Peter Kolp; Volker Krey; Christoph Krüger; Florian Leblanc; Shivika Mittal; Sergey Paltsev; Pedro Rochedo; Bas J van Ruijven; Ronald D Sands; Fuminori Sano; Jessica Strefler; Eveline Vasquez Arroyo; Kenichi Wada; Behnam Zakeri. Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 054046 .
AMA StyleMathijs Harmsen, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P van Vuuren, Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst, Gunnar Luderer, Ryna Cui, Olivier Dessens, Laurent Drouet, Johannes Emmerling, Jennifer Faye Morris, Florian Fosse, Dimitris Fragkiadakis, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, David Gernaat, Céline Guivarch, Gokul Iyer, Panagiotis Karkatsoulis, Ilkka Keppo, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre Köberle, Peter Kolp, Volker Krey, Christoph Krüger, Florian Leblanc, Shivika Mittal, Sergey Paltsev, Pedro Rochedo, Bas J van Ruijven, Ronald D Sands, Fuminori Sano, Jessica Strefler, Eveline Vasquez Arroyo, Kenichi Wada, Behnam Zakeri. Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (5):054046.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMathijs Harmsen; Elmar Kriegler; Detlef P van Vuuren; Kaj-Ivar van der Wijst; Gunnar Luderer; Ryna Cui; Olivier Dessens; Laurent Drouet; Johannes Emmerling; Jennifer Faye Morris; Florian Fosse; Dimitris Fragkiadakis; Kostas Fragkiadakis; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; David Gernaat; Céline Guivarch; Gokul Iyer; Panagiotis Karkatsoulis; Ilkka Keppo; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Köberle; Peter Kolp; Volker Krey; Christoph Krüger; Florian Leblanc; Shivika Mittal; Sergey Paltsev; Pedro Rochedo; Bas J van Ruijven; Ronald D Sands; Fuminori Sano; Jessica Strefler; Eveline Vasquez Arroyo; Kenichi Wada; Behnam Zakeri. 2021. "Integrated assessment model diagnostics: key indicators and model evolution." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 5: 054046.
Given the increasing interest in keeping global warming below 1.5°C, a key question is what this would mean for China’s emission pathway, energy restructuring, and decarbonization. By conducting a multimodel study, we find that the 1.5°C-consistent goal would require China to reduce its carbon emissions and energy consumption by more than 90 and 39%, respectively, compared with the “no policy” case. Negative emission technologies play an important role in achieving near-zero emissions, with captured carbon accounting on average for 20% of the total reductions in 2050. Our multimodel comparisons reveal large differences in necessary emission reductions across sectors, whereas what is consistent is that the power sector is required to achieve full decarbonization by 2050. The cross-model averages indicate that China’s accumulated policy costs may amount to 2.8 to 5.7% of its gross domestic product by 2050, given the 1.5°C warming limit.
Hongbo Duan; Sheng Zhou; Kejun Jiang; Christoph Bertram; Mathijs Harmsen; Elmar Kriegler; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Shouyang Wang; Shinichiro Fujimori; Massimo Tavoni; Xi Ming; Kimon Keramidas; Gokul Iyer; James Edmonds. Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit. Science 2021, 372, 378 -385.
AMA StyleHongbo Duan, Sheng Zhou, Kejun Jiang, Christoph Bertram, Mathijs Harmsen, Elmar Kriegler, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Shouyang Wang, Shinichiro Fujimori, Massimo Tavoni, Xi Ming, Kimon Keramidas, Gokul Iyer, James Edmonds. Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit. Science. 2021; 372 (6540):378-385.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHongbo Duan; Sheng Zhou; Kejun Jiang; Christoph Bertram; Mathijs Harmsen; Elmar Kriegler; Detlef P. van Vuuren; Shouyang Wang; Shinichiro Fujimori; Massimo Tavoni; Xi Ming; Kimon Keramidas; Gokul Iyer; James Edmonds. 2021. "Assessing China’s efforts to pursue the 1.5°C warming limit." Science 372, no. 6540: 378-385.
Japan’s mid-century strategy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 80% in 2050 would require large-scale energy system transformation and associated increases in mitigation costs. Nevertheless, the role of energy demand reduction, especially reductions related to energy services such as behavioral changes and material use efficiency improvements, have not been sufficiently evaluated. This study aims to identify key challenges and opportunities of the decarbonization goal when considering the role of energy service demand reduction. To this end, we used a detailed bottom-up energy system model in conjunction with an energy service demand model to explore energy system changes and their cost implications. The results indicate that final energy demand in 2050 can be cut by 37% relative to the no-policy case through energy service demand reduction measures. Although the lack of carbon capture and storage would cause mitigation costs to double or more, these economic impacts can be offset by energy service demand reduction. Among energy demand sectors, the impact of industrial service demand reduction is largest, as it contributes to reducing residual emissions from the industry sector. These findings highlight the importance of energy service demand reduction measures for meeting national climate goals in addition to technological options.
Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori; Yuki Ochi; Tomoki Ehara. Enabling energy system transition toward decarbonization in Japan through energy service demand reduction. Energy 2021, 227, 120464 .
AMA StyleKen Oshiro, Shinichiro Fujimori, Yuki Ochi, Tomoki Ehara. Enabling energy system transition toward decarbonization in Japan through energy service demand reduction. Energy. 2021; 227 ():120464.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKen Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori; Yuki Ochi; Tomoki Ehara. 2021. "Enabling energy system transition toward decarbonization in Japan through energy service demand reduction." Energy 227, no. : 120464.
Near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), including aerosols and chemically reactive gases such as tropospheric ozone and methane, offer a potential way to mitigate climate change and improve air quality--so called "win-win" mitigation policies. Prior studies support improved air quality under NTCF mitigation, but with conflicting climate impacts that range from a significant reduction in the rate of global warming to only a modest impact. Here, we use state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted as part of the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP) to quantify the 21st-century impact of NTCF reductions, using a realistic future emission scenario with a consistent air quality policy. Non-methane NTCF (NMNTCF; aerosols and ozone precursors) mitigation improves air quality, but leads to significant increases in global mean precipitation of 1.3% by mid-century and 1.4% by end-of-the-century, and corresponding surface warming of 0.23 and 0.21 K. NTCF (all-NTCF; including methane) mitigation further improves air quality, with larger reductions of up to 45% for ozone pollution, while offsetting half of the wetting by mid-century (0.7% increase) and all the wetting by end-of-the-century (non-significant 0.1% increase) and leading to surface cooling of -0.15 K by mid-century and -0.50 K by end-of-the-century. This suggests that methane mitigation offsets warming induced from reductions in NMNTCFs, while also leading to net improvements in air quality.
Robert J. Allen; Larry W Horowitz; Vaishali Naik; Naga Oshima; Fiona M. O'connor; Steven Turnock; Sungbo Shim; Philippe Le Sager; Twan Van Noije; Kostas Tsigaridis; Susanne E Bauer; Lori T. Sentman; Jasmin G John; Conor Broderick; Makoto Deushi; Gerd A. Folberth; Shinichiro Fujimori; William J Collins. Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleRobert J. Allen, Larry W Horowitz, Vaishali Naik, Naga Oshima, Fiona M. O'connor, Steven Turnock, Sungbo Shim, Philippe Le Sager, Twan Van Noije, Kostas Tsigaridis, Susanne E Bauer, Lori T. Sentman, Jasmin G John, Conor Broderick, Makoto Deushi, Gerd A. Folberth, Shinichiro Fujimori, William J Collins. Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRobert J. Allen; Larry W Horowitz; Vaishali Naik; Naga Oshima; Fiona M. O'connor; Steven Turnock; Sungbo Shim; Philippe Le Sager; Twan Van Noije; Kostas Tsigaridis; Susanne E Bauer; Lori T. Sentman; Jasmin G John; Conor Broderick; Makoto Deushi; Gerd A. Folberth; Shinichiro Fujimori; William J Collins. 2021. "Significant climate benefits from near-term climate forcer mitigation in spite of aerosol reductions." Environmental Research Letters , no. : 1.
Low-carbon pathways consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C long-term climate goals defined in the Paris Agreement are likely to induce substantial co-benefits for air pollution and associated health impacts. In this analysis, using five global integrated assessment models, we quantify the emission reductions in key air pollutants resulting from the decarbonization of energy systems and the resulting changes in premature mortality attributed to the exposure to ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter. The emission reductions differ by sectors. Sulfur emissions are mainly reduced from power plants and industry, cuts in nitrogen oxides are dominated by the transport sector, and the largest abatement of primary fine particles is achieved in the residential sector. The analysis also shows that health benefits are the largest when policies addressing climate change mitigation and stringent air pollution controls are coordinated. We decompose the key factors that determine the extent of health co-benefits, focusing on Asia: changes in emissions, urbanization rates, population growth and ageing. Demographic processes, particularly due to ageing population, counteract in many regions the mortality reductions realized through lower emissions.
Peter Rafaj; Gregor Kiesewetter; Volker Krey; Wolfgang Schoepp; Christoph Bertram; Laurent Drouet; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Mathijs Harmsen; Jérôme Hilaire; Daniel Huppmann; Zbigniew Klimont; Peter Kolp; Lara Aleluia Reis; Detlef P. van Vuuren. Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 045005 .
AMA StylePeter Rafaj, Gregor Kiesewetter, Volker Krey, Wolfgang Schoepp, Christoph Bertram, Laurent Drouet, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Mathijs Harmsen, Jérôme Hilaire, Daniel Huppmann, Zbigniew Klimont, Peter Kolp, Lara Aleluia Reis, Detlef P. van Vuuren. Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (4):045005.
Chicago/Turabian StylePeter Rafaj; Gregor Kiesewetter; Volker Krey; Wolfgang Schoepp; Christoph Bertram; Laurent Drouet; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Mathijs Harmsen; Jérôme Hilaire; Daniel Huppmann; Zbigniew Klimont; Peter Kolp; Lara Aleluia Reis; Detlef P. van Vuuren. 2021. "Air quality and health implications of 1.5 °C–2 °C climate pathways under considerations of ageing population: a multi-model scenario analysis." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 4: 045005.
Closing the remaining emissions gap between Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and the global emissions levels needed to achieve the Paris Agreement’s climate goals will likely require a comprehensive package of policy measures. National and sectoral policies can help fill the gap, but success stories in one country cannot be automatically replicated in other countries, but need to be adapted to the local context. Here, we develop a new Bridge scenario based on nationally relevant measures informed by interactions with country experts. We implement this scenario with an ensemble of global integrated assessment models (IAMs). We show that a global roll-out of these good practice policies closes the emissions gap between current NDCs and a cost-optimal well below 2 °C scenario by two thirds by 2030 and more than fully by 2050, while being less disruptive than a scenario that delays cost-optimal mitigation to 2030. The Bridge scenario leads to a scale-up of renewable energy (reaching 50%-85% of global electricity supply by 2050), electrification of end-uses, efficiency improvements in energy demand sectors, and enhanced afforestation and reforestation. Our analysis suggests that early action via good-practice policies is less costly than a delay in global climate cooperation.
Heleen Van Soest; Lara Aleluia Reis; Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Christoph Bertram; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Michel Elzen; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Neil Grant; Mathijs Harmsen; Gokul Iyer; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Köberle; Elmar Kriegler; Aman Malik; Shivika Mittal; Ken Oshiro; Keywan Riahi; Mark Roelfsema; Bastiaan Van Ruijven; Roberto Schaeffer; Diego Silva Herran; Massimo Tavoni; Gamze Unlu; Toon Vandyck; Detlef Van Vuuren. A Global Roll-out of Nationally Relevant Policies Bridges the Emissions Gap. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleHeleen Van Soest, Lara Aleluia Reis, Luiz Bernardo Baptista, Christoph Bertram, Jacques Després, Laurent Drouet, Michel Elzen, Panagiotis Fragkos, Oliver Fricko, Shinichiro Fujimori, Neil Grant, Mathijs Harmsen, Gokul Iyer, Kimon Keramidas, Alexandre Köberle, Elmar Kriegler, Aman Malik, Shivika Mittal, Ken Oshiro, Keywan Riahi, Mark Roelfsema, Bastiaan Van Ruijven, Roberto Schaeffer, Diego Silva Herran, Massimo Tavoni, Gamze Unlu, Toon Vandyck, Detlef Van Vuuren. A Global Roll-out of Nationally Relevant Policies Bridges the Emissions Gap. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleHeleen Van Soest; Lara Aleluia Reis; Luiz Bernardo Baptista; Christoph Bertram; Jacques Després; Laurent Drouet; Michel Elzen; Panagiotis Fragkos; Oliver Fricko; Shinichiro Fujimori; Neil Grant; Mathijs Harmsen; Gokul Iyer; Kimon Keramidas; Alexandre Köberle; Elmar Kriegler; Aman Malik; Shivika Mittal; Ken Oshiro; Keywan Riahi; Mark Roelfsema; Bastiaan Van Ruijven; Roberto Schaeffer; Diego Silva Herran; Massimo Tavoni; Gamze Unlu; Toon Vandyck; Detlef Van Vuuren. 2021. "A Global Roll-out of Nationally Relevant Policies Bridges the Emissions Gap." , no. : 1.
Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-use (AFOLU) are thought to play a vital role in long-term GHG emissions reduction, especially for their importance in non-CO2 emissions, bioenergy supply and carbon sequestration realized by afforestation. Several studies have noted potential adverse impacts of land-related emissions mitigation on food security, due to food price increases, but these studies have not disaggregated the individual aspects of land-related emissions mitigation that impact food security. Here, we show the extent to which three factors—non-CO2 emissions reduction, bioenergy production, and afforestation—change the food security and agricultural market conditions under 2 °C climate stabilization scenarios, using six global agro-economic models. The results show that afforestation, often implemented in the models by imposing carbon prices on land carbon stocks, causes the largest impacts on food security, followed by non-CO2 emissions policies, generally implemented as emissions taxes. Respectively, these measures put an additional 41.9 and 26.7 million people at risk of hunger in 2050. This study highlights the need for better coordination of emissions reduction and agricultural market management policy.
Shinichiro Fujimori; Wenchao Wu; Jonathan Doelman; Stefan Frank; Jordan Hristov; Page Kyle; Ronald Sands; Willem-Jan Van Zeist; Petr Havlík; Ignacio Pérez Domínguez; Amarendra Sahoo; Elke Stehfest; Andrzej Tabeau; Hugo Valin; Hans Van Meijl; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi. Impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural market and food security. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Wenchao Wu, Jonathan Doelman, Stefan Frank, Jordan Hristov, Page Kyle, Ronald Sands, Willem-Jan Van Zeist, Petr Havlík, Ignacio Pérez Domínguez, Amarendra Sahoo, Elke Stehfest, Andrzej Tabeau, Hugo Valin, Hans Van Meijl, Tomoko Hasegawa, Kiyoshi Takahashi. Impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural market and food security. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Wenchao Wu; Jonathan Doelman; Stefan Frank; Jordan Hristov; Page Kyle; Ronald Sands; Willem-Jan Van Zeist; Petr Havlík; Ignacio Pérez Domínguez; Amarendra Sahoo; Elke Stehfest; Andrzej Tabeau; Hugo Valin; Hans Van Meijl; Tomoko Hasegawa; Kiyoshi Takahashi. 2021. "Impacts of GHG emissions abatement measures on agricultural market and food security." , no. : 1.
The Paris Agreement invited Parties to develop low-emission development strategies. This study presents national low-emission scenarios to inform such strategies for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the USA. We use country-level technology-rich energy-economy and integrated assessment models that include detailed representations of the energy, transport and land systems and provide insights on emissions, energy system and economic implications of low-emission pathways until 2050. We show that the low-emission pathways of most economies studied here are consistent with pathways limiting global temperature increase to well-below 2 °C, while emission reductions are achieved through uptake of renewable energy, energy efficiency improvements and electrification of energy services. The role of mitigation options like nuclear, carbon capture and storage (CCS) and advanced biofuels is differentiates across countries, depending on national priorities, specificities and resource endowments. The energy system transformation requires a pronounced reallocation of investments towards low-carbon technologies, but without raising significant affordability issues in most countries. National pathways improve the consistency between country policy plans with global temperature goals and capture structural heterogeneities and broad socio-economic considerations.
Panagiotis Fragkos; Heleen Laura van Soest; Roberto Schaeffer; Luke Reedman; Alexandre C. Köberle; Nick Macaluso; Stavroula Evangelopoulou; Alessia De Vita; Fu Sha; Chai Qimin; Jiang Kejun; Ritu Mathur; Swapnil Shekhar; Retno Gumilang Dewi; Silva Herran Diego; Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori; Chan Park; George Safonov; Gokul Iyer. Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States. Energy 2020, 216, 119385 .
AMA StylePanagiotis Fragkos, Heleen Laura van Soest, Roberto Schaeffer, Luke Reedman, Alexandre C. Köberle, Nick Macaluso, Stavroula Evangelopoulou, Alessia De Vita, Fu Sha, Chai Qimin, Jiang Kejun, Ritu Mathur, Swapnil Shekhar, Retno Gumilang Dewi, Silva Herran Diego, Ken Oshiro, Shinichiro Fujimori, Chan Park, George Safonov, Gokul Iyer. Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States. Energy. 2020; 216 ():119385.
Chicago/Turabian StylePanagiotis Fragkos; Heleen Laura van Soest; Roberto Schaeffer; Luke Reedman; Alexandre C. Köberle; Nick Macaluso; Stavroula Evangelopoulou; Alessia De Vita; Fu Sha; Chai Qimin; Jiang Kejun; Ritu Mathur; Swapnil Shekhar; Retno Gumilang Dewi; Silva Herran Diego; Ken Oshiro; Shinichiro Fujimori; Chan Park; George Safonov; Gokul Iyer. 2020. "Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States." Energy 216, no. : 119385.
Actions concerned with climate change can cause co-benefits and trade-offs with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) concerned with air pollution, water scarcity, food security, land use, and sustainable energy. Such interactions can be greatly influenced by socioeconomic conditions. The impacts of socioeconomic conditions on multiple SDGs have not been evaluated separately from climate policies. This paper employed a Representative Concentration Pathways–Shared Socio-economic pathways (RCP-SSP) framework and the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) integrated assessment model to identify the global multi-sectoral consequences of socioeconomic conditions through 2050 under future SSP scenarios. Results showed that changes of socioeconomic conditions consistent with the SSP1 pathway could always improve SDG indicators, with or without climate policies. In many respects, socioeconomic conditions were more important than climate policies in achieving SDGs, particularly SDGs concerned with food security and energy affordability, as well as in simultaneously achieving multiple SDGs. We conclude that the advantages of a joint effort to implement climate policies and promulgate socioeconomic changes should be recognized by policy makers.
Jing-Yu Liu; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Wenchao Wu; Yong Geng; Jun’Ya Takakura; Toshihiko Masui. The importance of socioeconomic conditions in mitigating climate change impacts and achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Environmental Research Letters 2020, 16, 014010 .
AMA StyleJing-Yu Liu, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Tomoko Hasegawa, Wenchao Wu, Yong Geng, Jun’Ya Takakura, Toshihiko Masui. The importance of socioeconomic conditions in mitigating climate change impacts and achieving Sustainable Development Goals. Environmental Research Letters. 2020; 16 (1):014010.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJing-Yu Liu; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Tomoko Hasegawa; Wenchao Wu; Yong Geng; Jun’Ya Takakura; Toshihiko Masui. 2020. "The importance of socioeconomic conditions in mitigating climate change impacts and achieving Sustainable Development Goals." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 1: 014010.
Shinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro. An assessment of the potential of using carbon tax revenue to tackle poverty. Environmental Research Letters 2020, 15, 114063 .
AMA StyleShinichiro Fujimori, Tomoko Hasegawa, Ken Oshiro. An assessment of the potential of using carbon tax revenue to tackle poverty. Environmental Research Letters. 2020; 15 (11):114063.
Chicago/Turabian StyleShinichiro Fujimori; Tomoko Hasegawa; Ken Oshiro. 2020. "An assessment of the potential of using carbon tax revenue to tackle poverty." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 11: 114063.