Oropouche virus is an arthropod-borne virus that has caused outbreaks of Oropouche fever in central and South America since the 1950s. This study investigates virological factors contributing to the re-emergence of Oropouche fever in Brazil between 2023 and 2024. In this observational epidemiological study, we combined multiple data sources for Oropouche virus infections in Brazil and conducted in-vitro and in-vivo characterisation. We collected serum samples obtained in Manaus City, Amazonas state, Brazil, from patients with acute febrile illnesses aged 18 years or older who tested negative for malaria and samples from people with previous Oropouche virus infection from Coari municipality, Amazonas state, Brazil. Basic clinical and demographic data were collected from the Brazilian Laboratory Environment Management System. We calculated the incidence of Oropouche fever cases with data from the Brazilian Ministry of Health and the 2022 Brazilian population census and conducted age-sex analyses. We used reverse transcription quantitative PCR to test for Oropouche virus RNA in samples and subsequently performed sequencing and phylogenetic analysis of viral isolates. We compared the phenotype of the 2023-24 epidemic isolate (AM0088) with the historical prototype strain BeAn19991 through assessment of titre, plaque number, and plaque size. We used a plaque reduction neutralisation test (PRNT₅₀) to assess the susceptibility of the novel isolate and BeAn19991 isolate to antibody neutralisation, both in serum samples from people previously infected with Oropouche virus and in blood collected from mice that were inoculated with either of the strains. 8639 (81·8%) of 10 557 laboratory-confirmed Oropouche fever cases from Jan 4, 2015, to Aug 10, 2024, occurred in 2024, which is 58·8 times the annual median of 147 cases (IQR 73-325). Oropouche virus infections were reported in all 27 federal units, with 8182 (77·5%) of 10 557 infections occurring in North Brazil. We detected Oropouche virus RNA in ten (11%) of 93 patients with acute febrile illness between Jan 1 and Feb 4, 2024, in Amazonas state. AM0088 had a significantly higher replication at 12 h and 24 h after infection in mammalian cells than the prototype strain. AM0088 had a more virulent phenotype than the prototype in mammalian cells, characterised by earlier plaque formation, between 27% and 65% increase in plaque number, and plaques between 2·4-times and 2·6-times larger. Furthermore, serum collected on May 2 and May 20, 2016, from individuals previously infected with Oropouche virus showed at least a 32-fold reduction in neutralising capacity (ie, median PRNT₅₀ titre of 640 [IQR 320-640] for BeAn19991 vs <20 [ie, below the limit of detection] for AM0088) against the reassortant strain compared with the prototype. These findings provide a comprehensive assessment of Oropouche fever in Brazil and contribute to an improved understanding of the 2023-24 Oropouche virus re-emergence. Our exploratory in-vitro data suggest that the increased incidence might be related to a higher replication efficiency of a new Oropouche virus reassortant for which previous immunity shows lower neutralising capacity. São Paulo Research Foundation, Burroughs Wellcome Fund, Wellcome Trust, US National Institutes of Health, and Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development. For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Western Equine Encephalitis Virus, South America

Background: Oropouche virus (OROV; species Orthobunyavirus oropoucheense ) is an arthropod-borne virus that has caused outbreaks of Oropouche fever in Central and South America since the 1950s. This study investigates virological factors contributing to the reemergence of Oropouche fever in Brazil between 2023 and 2024. Methods: In this study, we combined OROV genomic, molecular, and serological data from Brazil from 1 January 2015 to 29 June 2024, along with in vitro and in vivo characterization. Molecular screening data included 93 patients with febrile illness between January 2023 and February 2024 from the Amazonas State. Genomic data comprised two genomic OROV sequences from patients. Serological data were obtained from neutralizing antibody tests comparing the prototype OROV strain BeAn 19991 and the 2024 epidemic strain. Epidemiological data included aggregated cases reported to the Brazilian Ministry of Health from 1 January 2014 to 29 June 2024. Findings: In 2024, autochthonous OROV infections were detected in previously non-endemic areas across all five Brazilian regions. Cases were reported in 19 of 27 federal units, with 83.2% (6,895 of 8,284) of infections in Northern Brazil and a nearly 200-fold increase in incidence compared to reported cases over the last decade. We detected OROV RNA in 10.8% (10 of 93) of patients with febrile illness between December 2023 and May 2024 in Amazonas. We demonstrate that the 2023-2024 epidemic was caused by a novel OROV reassortant that replicated approximately 100-fold higher titers in mammalian cells compared to the prototype strain. The 2023-2024 OROV reassortant displayed plaques earlier than the prototype, produced 1.7 times more plaques, and plaque sizes were 2.5 larger compared to the prototype. Furthermore, serum collected in 2016 from previously OROV-infected individuals showed at least a 32-fold reduction in neutralizing capacity against the reassortment strain compared to the prototype. Interpretation: These findings provide a comprehensive assessment of Oropouche fever in Brazil and contribute to a better understanding of the 2023-2024 OROV reemergence. The recent increased incidence may be related to a higher replication efficiency of a new reassortant virus that also evades previous immunity.

Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 5,002,387 cases and 127,258 deaths as of October 31, 2021. The aggressive transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 motivate an investigation of COVID-19 at the national and regional levels in Colombia. We utilize the case incidence and mortality data to estimate the transmission potential and generate short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 pandemic to inform the public health policies using previously validated mathematical models. The analysis is augmented by the examination of geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 at the departmental level along with the investigation of mobility and social media trends. Overall, the national and regional reproduction numbers show sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Whereas the most recent estimates of reproduction number indicate disease containment, with R_t<1.0 as of October 31, 2021. On the forecasting front, the sub-epidemic model performs best at capturing the 30-day ahead COVID-19 trajectory compared to the Richards and generalized logistic growth model. Nevertheless, the spatial variability in the incidence rate patterns across different departments can be grouped into four distinct clusters. As the case incidence surged in July 2020, an increase in mobility patterns was also observed. On the contrary, a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued, indicating the pandemic fatigue in the country.

Oropouche Virus, Ceará State, Brazil, 2024

This study quantifies the transmission potential of SARS-CoV-2 across public health districts in Georgia, USA, and tests if per capita cumulative case count varies across counties. To estimate the time-varying reproduction number, R_t of SARS-CoV-2 in Georgia and its 18 public health districts, we apply the R package ‘EpiEstim’ to the time series of historical daily incidence of confirmed cases, 2 March–15 December 2020. The epidemic curve is shifted backward by nine days to account for the incubation period and delay to testing. Linear regression is performed between log₁₀-transformed per capita cumulative case count and log₁₀-transformed population size. We observe R_t fluctuations as state and countywide policies are implemented. Policy changes are associated with increases or decreases at different time points. R_t increases, following the reopening of schools for in-person instruction in August. Evidence suggests that counties with lower population size had a higher per capita cumulative case count on June 15 (slope = −0.10, p = 0.04) and October 15 (slope = −0.05, p = 0.03), but not on August 15 (slope = −0.04, p = 0.09), nor December 15 (slope = −0.02, p = 0.41). We found extensive community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 across all 18 health districts in Georgia with median 7-day-sliding window R_t estimates between 1 and 1.4 after March 2020.