The 2023 Canadian forest fires have been extreme in scale and intensity with more than seven times the average annual area burned compared to the previous four decades¹. Here, we quantify the carbon emissions from these fires from May to September 2023 on the basis of inverse modelling of satellite carbon monoxide observations. We find that the magnitude of the carbon emissions is 647 TgC (570–727 TgC), comparable to the annual fossil fuel emissions of large nations, with only India, China and the USA releasing more carbon per year². We find that widespread hot–dry weather was a principal driver of fire spread, with 2023 being the warmest and driest year since at least 1980³. Although temperatures were extreme relative to the historical record, climate projections indicate that these temperatures are likely to be typical during the 2050s, even under a moderate climate mitigation scenario (shared socioeconomic pathway, SSP 2–4.5)⁴. Such conditions are likely to drive increased fire activity and suppress carbon uptake by Canadian forests, adding to concerns about the long-term durability of these forests as a carbon sink^5–8.

Accurate accounting of emissions and removals of CO₂ is critical for the planning and verification of emission reduction targets in support of the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset of country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) and terrestrial carbon stock changes aimed at informing countries' carbon budgets. These estimates are based on “top-down” NCE outputs from the v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble of inverse modeling groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction ($X_{{\mathrm{CO}}_{\mathrm{2}}}$ ) retrievals (ACOS v10), in situ CO₂ measurements or combinations of these data. The v10 OCO-2 MIP NCE estimates are combined with “bottom-up” estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon stocks, which are impacted by anthropogenic and natural drivers. These flux and stock change estimates are reported annually (2015–2020) as both a global 1^∘ × 1^∘ gridded dataset and a country-level dataset and are available for download from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites' (CEOS) website: https://doi.org/10.48588/npf6-sw92 (Byrne et al., 2022). Across the v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments, we obtain increases in the ensemble median terrestrial carbon stocks of 3.29–4.58 Pg CO₂ yr⁻¹ (0.90–1.25 Pg C yr⁻¹). This is a result of broad increases in terrestrial carbon stocks across the northern extratropics, while the tropics generally have stock losses but with considerable regional variability and differences between v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments. We discuss the state of the science for tracking emissions and removals using top-down methods, including current limitations and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.

We use optimal estimation (OE) to quantify methane fluxes based on total column CH₄ data from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) and the GEOS-Chem global chemistry transport model. We then project these fluxes to emissions by sector at 1^∘ resolution and then to each country using a new Bayesian algorithm that accounts for prior and posterior uncertainties in the methane emissions. These estimates are intended as a pilot dataset for the global stock take in support of the Paris Agreement. However, differences between the emissions reported here and widely used bottom-up inventories should be used as a starting point for further research because of potential systematic errors of these satellite-based emissions estimates. We find that agricultural and waste emissions are ∼ 263 ± 24 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹, anthropogenic fossil emissions are 82 ± 12 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹, and natural wetland/aquatic emissions are 180 ± 10 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹. These estimates are consistent with previous inversions based on GOSAT data and the GEOS-Chem model. In addition, anthropogenic fossil estimates are consistent with those reported to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (80.4 Tg CH₄ yr⁻¹ for 2019). Alternative priors can be easily tested with our new Bayesian approach (also known as prior swapping) to determine their impact on posterior emissions estimates. We use this approach by swapping to priors that include much larger aquatic emissions and fossil emissions (based on isotopic evidence) and find little impact on our posterior fluxes. This indicates that these alternative inventories are inconsistent with our remote sensing estimates and also that the posteriors reported here are due to the observing and flux inversion system and not uncertainties in the prior inventories. We find that total emissions for approximately 57 countries can be resolved with this observing system based on the degrees-of-freedom for signal metric (DOFS > 1.0) that can be calculated with our Bayesian flux estimation approach. Below a DOFS of 0.5, estimates for country total emissions are more weighted to our choice of prior inventories. The top five emitting countries (Brazil, China, India, Russia, USA) emit about half of the global anthropogenic budget, similar to our choice of prior emissions but with the posterior emissions shifted towards the agricultural sector and less towards fossil emissions, consistent with our global posterior results. Our results suggest remote-sensing-based estimates of methane emissions can be substantially different (although within uncertainty) than bottom-up inventories, isotopic evidence, or estimates based on sparse in situ data, indicating a need for further studies reconciling these different approaches for quantifying the methane budget. Higher-resolution fluxes calculated from upcoming satellite or aircraft data such as the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and those in formulation such as the Copernicus CO₂M, MethaneSat, or Carbon Mapper can be incorporated into our Bayesian estimation framework for the purpose of reducing uncertainty and improving the spatial resolution and sectoral attribution of subsequent methane emissions estimates.

We present new calculations of radiative forcing at very high concentrations of CO₂, CH₄, and N₂O, relevant to extreme anthropogenic climate change and paleoclimate studies. CO₂ forcing is calculated over the range 100 ppmv to 50,000 ppmv, and the maximum forcing is 38.1 W m⁻². CH₄ and N₂O forcings are calculated over the range 100 ppbv to 100 ppmv and give maximum forcings of 6.66 W m⁻² and 22.3 W m⁻². The sensitivity of our calculations to spatial averaging and tropopause definition is examined. We compare our results with the “simplified expressions” reported by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and find significant differences at high greenhouse gas concentrations. We provide new simplified expressions which agree much better with the calculated forcings and suggest that these expressions be used in place of the IPCC expressions. Additionally, we provide meridionally resolved forcings which may be used to force simple and intermediate complexity climate models.

2019 was the hottest and driest year on record for southeast Australia leading to bushfires of unprecedented extent. Ecosystem carbon losses due to drought and fire are believed to have been substantial, but have not been well quantified. Here, we utilize space‐based measurements of trace gases (TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument X_CO, Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 ) and up‐scaled GPP (FluxSat GPP) to quantify the carbon cycle anomalies resulting from drought and fire in southeast Australia during the 2019–2020 growing season. We find that biomass burning released 113–236 TgC of CO₂ while drought and fire‐induced anomalies in net ecosystem exchange reduced growing season carbon uptake by an additional 19–52 TgC of CO₂. These carbon losses were concentrated during the spring and early summer, when hot‐dry conditions were most severe. A shift to cooler conditions with above average rainfall during February is found to result in a partial recovery and greening in unburned ecosystems, but not in fire‐impacted areas. The net 2019–2020 carbon loss substantially exceeded interannual variations in net uptake over 2010–2019 estimated from top‐down constraints (∼5σ anomaly), and exceeded Australia's annual fossil fuel emissions (∼104 TgC year⁻¹). Top‐down constraints show that the regional carbon budget is strongly regulated by climate variability, and suggest that cool‐wet conditions are required for a rapid recovery of carbon stocks. This has implications for the regional carbon budget as more frequent climate‐change‐driven heat and drought events may increase the frequency of fire events and the recovery time of ecosystems, threatening the carbon stocks of the region.

Top‐down estimates of CO₂ fluxes are typically constrained by either surface‐based or space‐based CO₂ observations. Both of these measurement types have spatial and temporal gaps in observational coverage that can lead to differences in inferred fluxes. Assimilating both surface‐based and space‐based measurements concurrently in a flux inversion framework improves observational coverage and reduces sampling related artifacts. This study examines the consistency of flux constraints provided by these different observations and the potential to combine them by performing a series of 6‐year (2010–2015) CO₂ flux inversions. Flux inversions are performed assimilating surface‐based measurements from the in situ and flask network, measurements from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), and space‐based measurements from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT), or all three data sets combined. Combining the data sets results in more precise flux estimates for subcontinental regions relative to any of the data sets alone. Combining the data sets also improves the accuracy of the posterior fluxes, based on reduced root‐mean‐square differences between posterior flux‐simulated CO₂ and aircraft‐based CO₂ over midlatitude regions (0.33–0.56 ppm) in comparison to GOSAT (0.37–0.61 ppm), TCCON (0.50–0.68 ppm), or in situ and flask measurements (0.46–0.56 ppm) alone. These results suggest that surface‐based and GOSAT measurements give complementary constraints on CO₂ fluxes in the northern extratropics and can be combined in flux inversions to improve constraints on regional fluxes. This stands in contrast with many earlier attempts to combine these data sets and suggests that improvements in the NASA Atmospheric CO₂ Observations from Space (ACOS) retrieval algorithm have significantly improved the consistency of space‐based and surface‐based flux constraints.