Since September 2014, NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite has been taking measurements of reflected solar spectra and using them to infer atmospheric carbon dioxide levels. This work provides details of the OCO-2 retrieval algorithm, versions 7 and 8, used to derive the column-averaged dry air mole fraction of atmospheric CO₂ (XCO₂) for the roughly 100 000 cloud-free measurements recorded by OCO-2 each day. The algorithm is based on the Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space (ACOS) algorithm which has been applied to observations from the Greenhouse Gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) since 2009, with modifications necessary for OCO-2. Because high accuracy, better than 0.25 %, is required in order to accurately infer carbon sources and sinks from XCO₂, significant errors and regional-scale biases in the measurements must be minimized. We discuss efforts to filter out poor-quality measurements, and correct the remaining good-quality measurements to minimize regional-scale biases. Updates to the radiance calibration and retrieval forward model in version 8 have improved many aspects of the retrieved data products. The version 8 data appear to have reduced regional-scale biases overall, and demonstrate a clear improvement over the version 7 data. In particular, error variance with respect to TCCON was reduced by 20 % over land and 40 % over ocean between versions 7 and 8, and nadir and glint observations over land are now more consistent. While this paper documents the significant improvements in the ACOS algorithm, it will continue to evolve and improve as the CO₂ data record continues to expand.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 has been on orbit since 2014, and its global coverage holds the potential to reveal new information about the carbon cycle through the use of top-down atmospheric inversion methods combined with column average CO2 retrievals. We employ a large ensemble of atmospheric inversions utilizing different transport models, data assimilation techniques, and prior flux distributions in order to quantify the satellite-informed fluxes from OCO-2 Version 7r land observations and their uncertainties at continental scales. Additionally, we use in situ measurements to provide a baseline against which to compare the satellite-constrained results. We find that within the ensemble spread, in situ observations, and satellite retrievals constrain a similar global total carbon sink of 3.7±0.5 PgC yr−1, and 1.5±0.6 PgC yr−1 for global land, for the 2015–2016 annual mean. This agreement breaks down in smaller regions, and we discuss the differences between the experiments. Of particular interest is the difference between the different assimilation constraints in the tropics, with the largest differences occurring in tropical Africa, which could be an indication of the global perturbation from the 2015–2016 El Niño. Evaluation of posterior concentrations using TCCON and aircraft observations gives some limited insight into the quality of the different assimilation constraints, but the lack of such data in the tropics inhibits our ability to make strong conclusions there.

Accurate accounting of emissions and removals of CO₂ is critical for the planning and verification of emission reduction targets in support of the Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset of country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) and terrestrial carbon stock changes aimed at informing countries' carbon budgets. These estimates are based on “top-down” NCE outputs from the v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble of inverse modeling groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction ($X_{{\mathrm{CO}}_{\mathrm{2}}}$ ) retrievals (ACOS v10), in situ CO₂ measurements or combinations of these data. The v10 OCO-2 MIP NCE estimates are combined with “bottom-up” estimates of fossil fuel emissions and lateral carbon fluxes to estimate changes in terrestrial carbon stocks, which are impacted by anthropogenic and natural drivers. These flux and stock change estimates are reported annually (2015–2020) as both a global 1^∘ × 1^∘ gridded dataset and a country-level dataset and are available for download from the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites' (CEOS) website: https://doi.org/10.48588/npf6-sw92 (Byrne et al., 2022). Across the v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments, we obtain increases in the ensemble median terrestrial carbon stocks of 3.29–4.58 Pg CO₂ yr⁻¹ (0.90–1.25 Pg C yr⁻¹). This is a result of broad increases in terrestrial carbon stocks across the northern extratropics, while the tropics generally have stock losses but with considerable regional variability and differences between v10 OCO-2 MIP experiments. We discuss the state of the science for tracking emissions and removals using top-down methods, including current limitations and future developments towards top-down monitoring and verification systems.

We study an ensemble of six multi-year global Bayesian carbon dioxide (CO₂) atmospheric inversions that vary in terms of assimilated observations (either column retrievals from one of two satellites or surface air sample measurements) and transport model. The time series of inferred annual fluxes are first compared with each other at various spatial scales. We then objectively evaluate the small inversion ensemble based on a large dataset of accurate aircraft measurements in the free troposphere over the globe, which are independent of all assimilated data. The measured variables are connected with the inferred fluxes through mass-conserving transport in the global atmosphere and are part of the inversion results. Large-scale annual fluxes estimated from the bias-corrected land retrievals of the second Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) differ greatly from the prior fluxes, but are similar to the fluxes estimated from the surface network within the uncertainty of these surface-based estimates. The OCO-2-based and surface-based inversions have similar performance when projected in the space of the aircraft data, but the relative strengths and weaknesses of the two flux estimates vary within the northern and tropical parts of the continents. The verification data also suggest that the more complex and more recent transport model does not improve the inversion skill. In contrast, the inversion using bias-corrected retrievals from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) or, to a larger extent, a non-Bayesian inversion that simply adjusts a recent bottom-up flux estimate with the annual growth rate diagnosed from marine surface measurements both estimate much different fluxes and fit the aircraft data less. Our study highlights a way to rate global atmospheric inversions. Without any general claim regarding the usefulness of all OCO-2 retrieval datasets vs. all GOSAT retrieval datasets, it still suggests that some satellite retrievals can now provide inversion results that are, despite their uncertainty, comparable with respect to credibility to traditional inversions using the accurate but sparse surface network and that are therefore complementary for studies of the global carbon budget.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) satellite has been providing information to estimate carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes at global and regional scales since 2014 through the combination of CO₂ retrievals with top–down atmospheric inversion methods. Column average CO₂ dry-air mole fraction retrievals have been constantly improved. A bias correction has been applied in the OCO-2 version 9 retrievals compared to the previous OCO-2 version 7r improving data accuracy and coverage. We study an ensemble of 10 atmospheric inversions all characterized by different transport models, data assimilation algorithms, and prior fluxes using first OCO-2 v7 in 2015–2016 and then OCO-2 version 9 land observations for the longer period 2015–2018. Inversions assimilating in situ (IS) measurements have also been used to provide a baseline against which the satellite-driven results are compared. The time series at different scales (going from global to regional scales) of the models emissions are analyzed and compared to each experiment using either OCO-2 or IS data. We then evaluate the inversion ensemble based on the dataset from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), aircraft, and in situ observations, all independent from assimilated data. While we find a similar constraint of global total carbon emissions between the ensemble spread using IS and both OCO-2 retrievals, differences between the two retrieval versions appear over regional scales and particularly in tropical Africa. A difference in the carbon budget between v7 and v9 is found over this region, which seems to show the impact of corrections applied in retrievals. However, the lack of data in the tropics limits our conclusions, and the estimation of carbon emissions over tropical Africa require further analysis.

We estimate the uncertainty of CO₂ flux estimates in atmospheric inversions stemming from differences between different global transport models. Using a set of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs), we estimate this uncertainty as represented by the spread between five different state-of-the-art global transport models (ACTM, LMDZ, GEOS-Chem, PCTM and TM5), for both traditional in situ CO₂ inversions and inversions of XCO₂ estimates from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2). We find that, in the absence of relative biases between in situ CO₂ and OCO-2 XCO₂, OCO-2 estimates of terrestrial flux for TRANSCOM-scale land regions can be more robust to transport model differences than corresponding in situ CO₂ inversions. This is due to a combination of the increased spatial coverage of OCO-2 samples and the total column nature of OCO-2 estimates. We separate the two effects by constructing hypothetical in situ networks with the coverage of OCO-2 but with only near-surface samples. We also find that the transport-driven uncertainty in fluxes is comparable between well-sampled northern temperate regions and poorly sampled tropical regions. Furthermore, we find that spatiotemporal differences in sampling, such as between OCO-2 land and ocean soundings, coupled with imperfect transport, can produce differences in flux estimates that are larger than flux uncertainties due to transport model differences. This highlights the need for sampling with as complete a spatial and temporal coverage as possible (e.g., using both land and ocean retrievals together for OCO-2) to minimize the impact of selective sampling. Finally, our annual and monthly estimates of transport-driven uncertainties can be used to evaluate the robustness of conclusions drawn from real OCO-2 and in situ CO₂ inversions.