Summary: The ongoing enrichment of the atmosphere with CO₂ raises the question of whether growth of forest trees, which represent close to 90% of the global biomass carbon, is still carbon limited at current concentrations of close to 370 p.p.m. As photosynthesis of C3 plants is not CO₂‐saturated at such concentrations, enhanced ‘source activity’ of leaves could stimulate ‘sink activity’ (i.e. growth) of plants, provided other resources and developmental controls permit. I explore current levels of non‐structural carbon in trees in natural forests in order to estimate the potential for a carbon‐driven stimulation of growth. The concentration of non‐structural carbohydrates (NSC) in tree tissues is considered a measure of carbon shortage or surplus for growth. A periodic reduction of NSC pools indicates either that carbon demand exceeds con‐current supply, or that both source and sink activity are low. A steady, very high NSC concentration is likely to indicate that photosynthesis fully meets, or even exeeds, that needed for growth (surplus assimilates accumulate). The analysis presented here considers data for mature trees in four climatic zones: the high elevation treeline (in Mexico, the Alps and Northern Sweden), a temperate lowland forest of central Europe, Mediterranean sclerophyllous woodland and a semideciduous tropical forest in Panama. In all four climatic regions, periods of reduced or zero growth show maximum C‐loading of trees (source activity exceeding demand), except for dry midsummer in the Mediterranean. NSC pools are generally high throughout the year, and are not significantly affected by mass fruiting episodes. It is concluded that, irrespective of the reason for its periodic cessation, growth does not seem to be limited by carbon supply. Instead, in all the cases examined, sink activity and its direct control by the environment or developmental constraints, restricts biomass production of trees under current ambient CO₂ concentrations. The current carbohydrate charging of mature wild trees from the tropics to the cold limit of tree growth suggests that little (if any) leeway exists for further CO₂‐fertilization effects on growth.

Phenological events such as bud burst, flowering, and senescence have received increased interest in the light of global warming (1–3). Spring events at temperate latitudes have advanced by 2.5 days per decade since 1971 (4). As global warming progresses, how will it affect the arrival of spring and the length of the growing season?

Summary: Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) is increasing, which increases leaf‐scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water‐use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO₂] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO₂ responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO₂]‐driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO₂] (iCO₂) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre‐industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO₂ is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO₂ responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO₂ responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO₂, albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.