Summary: Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂]) is increasing, which increases leaf‐scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water‐use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO₂] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO₂ responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO₂]‐driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO₂] (iCO₂) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre‐industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO₂ is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO₂ responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO₂ responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO₂, albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.

Quantifying how climate change drives drought is a priority to inform policy and adaptation planning. We show that the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations project coherent regional patterns in meteorological drought for two emissions scenarios to 2100. We find robust projected changes in seasonal drought duration and frequency (robust over >45% of the global land area), despite a lack of agreement across models in projected changes in mean precipitation (24% of the land area). Future drought changes are larger and more consistent in CMIP6 compared to CMIP5. We find regionalized increases and decreases in drought duration and frequency that are driven by changes in both precipitation mean and variability. Conversely, drought intensity increases over most regions but is not simulated well historically by the climate models. The more robust projections of meteorological drought compared to mean precipitation in CMIP6 provides significant new opportunities for water resource planning.

Summary: We analysed the responses of 11 ecosystem models to elevated atmospheric [CO₂] (eCO₂) at two temperate forest ecosystems (Duke and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Free‐Air CO₂ Enrichment (FACE) experiments) to test alternative representations of carbon (C)–nitrogen (N) cycle processes. We decomposed the model responses into component processes affecting the response to eCO₂ and confronted these with observations from the FACE experiments. Most of the models reproduced the observed initial enhancement of net primary production (NPP) at both sites, but none was able to simulate both the sustained 10‐yr enhancement at Duke and the declining response at ORNL: models generally showed signs of progressive N limitation as a result of lower than observed plant N uptake. Nonetheless, many models showed qualitative agreement with observed component processes. The results suggest that improved representation of above‐ground–below‐ground interactions and better constraints on plant stoichiometry are important for a predictive understanding of eCO₂ effects. Improved accuracy of soil organic matter inventories is pivotal to reduce uncertainty in the observed C–N budgets. The two FACE experiments are insufficient to fully constrain terrestrial responses to eCO₂, given the complexity of factors leading to the observed diverging trends, and the consequential inability of the models to explain these trends. Nevertheless, the ecosystem models were able to capture important features of the experiments, lending some support to their projections.