This paper investigates why general Moving Average (MA) trading rules are widely used by technical analysts and others. We assume general stationary processes for prices and we derive the autocorrelation function for an MA trading rule. Based on our results, we conjecture that autocorrelation amplification is one of the reasons why such trading rules are popular. Using simulated results, we show that the MA rule may be popular because it can identify price momentum and is a simple way of assessing and exploiting the price autocorrelation structure without necessarily knowing its precise structure. This paper then, provides empirical evidence of autocorrelation amplification using 15-year daily price data for 11 major international stock indices.

This article studies an actively managed bond strategy based on time series momentum in sovereign bond markets. The author assesses the performance of an active strategy and investigates diversification benefits in comparison with a passive buy-and-hold strategy when each strategy is combined with international equity indexes. The analysis provides evidence that the active strategy offers higher expected returns without increasing return volatility. Importantly, and in comparison with the passive strategy, the active strategy results in both significant return and diversification enhancements when combined with international equity indexes. Therefore, the author suggests that his active momentum strategy can serve fund managers as an alternative to common long-only passive bond strategies to enhance the riskadjusted return of a combined portfolio of sovereign bonds and equities.