Significance: Many ecological and evolutionary processes strongly depend on the way natural selection varies over time. However, a gap remains when trying to connect theoretical predictions to empirical work on this question: Most theory assumes that adaptation involves tracking a moving optimum phenotype through time, but this is seldom estimated empirically. Here, we have assembled a large database of wild bird and mammal populations, to estimate patterns of fluctuations in the optimum breeding date and its influence on the variability of natural selection. We find that optimum fluctuations are prevalent. However, their influence on temporal variance in natural selection is partly buffered by tracking of the optimum phenotype through individual phenotypic plasticity.

Whether or not bird ornaments are a signal for direct (e.g. good parents) or indirect (e.g. good genes) benefits to prospective partners in sexual selection is controversial. Carotene coloration in Parus species is directly related to the ingestion of caterpillars, so that a brightly carotene–coloured tit may be signalling its ability to find caterpillars, a main high–quality food source for good fledgling development, and hence its parental abilities. If carotene–based plumage coloration is related to the good–parent hypothesis, we predict that yellow plumage brightness of tit fathers should be positively correlated to their investment in offspring provisioning. Here, we use cross–fostering experiments in blue tits (Parus caeruleus) to show that chick development (as measured by tarsus length) is related to yellowness of the foster father, but not to that of the genetic parents. Using these data, we were able to measure, for the first time to our knowledge, the separate contribution of genetic and environmental factors (i.e. parental plumage coloration) to chick development, and hence parental investment. Our data, which relate carotenoid coloration to models of good parents, and data from other authors, which relate ultraviolet coloration to good–genes models, stress that different kinds of coloration within an individual may provide different units of information to prospective females.

Because dominants usually exploit others and take a disproportionate share of the available resources, we should expect foragers to be choosy as to which individuals they join. Here we show that siskins (Carduelis spinus) discriminate between dominant and subordinate individuals on the first encounter without requiring cues such as overt aggression, and prefer to join subordinate individuals. Experimental enlargement or removal of the siskin black bib, which has been shown previously to be a reliable predictor of dominance, strongly suggests that dominance discrimination is based on the use of badges of status.