Estimating long-term modifications of the sea surface temperature (SST) is crucial for evaluating the current state of the oceans and to correctly assess the impact of climate change at regional scales. In this work, we analyze SST variations within the Mediterranean Sea and the adjacent Northeastern Atlantic box (west of the Strait of Gibraltar) over the last 37 years, by using a satellite-based dataset from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS). We found a mean warming trend of $0.041\pm 0.006$ ${}^{\circ }$ C/year over the whole Mediterranean Sea from 1982 to 2018. The trend has an uneven spatial pattern, with values increasing from $0.036\pm 0.006$ ${}^{\circ }$ C/year in the western basin to $0.048\pm 0.006$ ${}^{\circ }$ C/year in the Levantine–Aegean basin. The Northeastern Atlantic box and the Mediterranean show a similar trend until the late 1990s. Afterwards, the Mediterranean SST continues to increase, whereas the Northeastern Atlantic box shows no significant trend, until ~2015. The observed change in the Mediterranean Sea affects not only the mean trend but also the amplitude of the Mediterranean seasonal signal, with consistent relative increase and decrease of summer and winter mean values, respectively, over the period considered. The analysis of SST changes occurred during the “satellite era” is further complemented by reconstructions also based on direct in situ SST measurements, i.e., the Extended Reconstructed SST (ERSST) and the Hadley Centre Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset (HadISST), which go back to the 19th century. The analysis of these longer time series, covering the last 165 years, indicates that the increasing Mediterranean trend, observed during the CMEMS operational period, is consistent with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), as it closely follows the last increasing period of AMO. This coincidence occurs at least until 2007, when the apparent onset of the decreasing phase of AMO is not seen in the Mediterranean SST evolution.

We investigate the spreading of passive tracers in closed basins. If the characteristic length scale of the Eulerian velocities is not very small compared with the size of the basin the usual diffusion coefficient does not give any relevant information about the mechanism of spreading. We introduce a finite size characteristic time $\mathrm{\tau (\delta )}$ which describes the diffusive process at scale $\delta$ . When $\delta$ is small compared with the typical length of the velocity field one has ${\mathrm{\tau (\delta )\sim \lambda }}^{\text{−1}}$ , where $\lambda$ is the maximum Lyapunov exponent of the Lagrangian motion. At large $\delta$ the behavior of $\mathrm{\tau (\delta )}$ depends on the details of the system, in particular the presence of boundaries, and in this limit we have found a universal behavior for a large class of system under rather general hypothesis. The method of working at fixed scale $\delta$ makes more physical sense than the traditional way of looking at the relative diffusion at fixed delay times. This technique is displayed in a series of numerical experiments in simple flows.

This paper is the outcome of a workshop held in Rome in November 2011 on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the POEM (Physical Oceanography of the Eastern Mediterranean) program. In the workshop discussions, a number of unresolved issues were identified for the physical and biogeochemical properties of the Mediterranean Sea as a whole, i.e., comprising the Western and Eastern sub-basins. Over the successive two years, the related ideas were discussed among the group of scientists who participated in the workshop and who have contributed to the writing of this paper. Three major topics were identified, each of them being the object of a section divided into a number of different sub-sections, each addressing a specific physical, chemical or biological issue: 1. Assessment of basin-wide physical/biochemical properties, of their variability and interactions. 2. Relative importance of external forcing functions (wind stress, heat/moisture fluxes, forcing through straits) vs. internal variability. 3. Shelf/deep sea interactions and exchanges of physical/biogeochemical properties and how they affect the sub-basin circulation and property distribution. Furthermore, a number of unresolved scientific/methodological issues were also identified and are reported in each sub-section after a short discussion of the present knowledge. They represent the collegial consensus of the scientists contributing to the paper. Naturally, the unresolved issues presented here constitute the choice of the authors and therefore they may not be exhaustive and/or complete. The overall goal is to stimulate a broader interdisciplinary discussion among the scientists of the Mediterranean oceanographic community, leading to enhanced collaborative efforts and exciting future discoveries.

In this article, the authors describe an innovative multimodel system developed within the Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment (CIRCE) European Union (EU) Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate. The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow assessment of the role of the basin and in particular of the air–sea feedbacks in the climate of the region. The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings during the first half of the simulation period and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario during the second half. The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°–2°C) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss decreases, leading to a weaker cooling of the Mediterranean Sea by the atmosphere, whereas the water budget appears to increase, leading the basin to lose more water through its surface than in the past. Overall, these results are consistent with the findings of previous scenario simulations, such as the Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects (PRUDENCE), Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES), and phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The agreement suggests that these findings are robust to substantial changes in the configuration of the models used to make the simulations. Finally, the models produce a 2021–50 mean steric sea level rise that ranges between +7 and +12 cm, with respect to the period of reference.