This study presents a model of chlorophyll and primary production in the pelagic Mediterranean Sea. A 3-D-biogeochemical model (OPATM-BFM) was adopted to explore specific system characteristics and quantify dynamics of key biogeochemical variables over a 6 yr period, from 1999 to 2004. We show that, on a basin scale, the Mediterranean Sea is characterised by a high degree of spatial and temporal variability in terms of primary production and chlorophyll concentrations. On a spatial scale, important horizontal and vertical gradients have been observed. According to the simulations over a 6 yr period, the developed model correctly simulated the climatological features of deep chlorophyll maxima and chlorophyll west-east gradients, as well as the seasonal variability in the main offshore regions that were studied. The integrated net primary production highlights north-south gradients that differ from surface net primary production gradients and illustrates the importance of resolving spatial and temporal variations to calculate basin-wide budgets and their variability. According to the model, the western Mediterranean, in particular the Alboran Sea, can be considered mesotrophic, whereas the eastern Mediterranean is oligotrophic. During summer stratified period, notable differences between surface net primary production variability and the corresponding vertically integrated production rates have been identified, suggesting that care must be taken when inferring productivity in such systems from satellite observations alone. Finally, specific simulations that were designed to explore the role of external fluxes and light penetration were performed. The subsequent results show that the effects of atmospheric and terrestrial nutrient loads on the total integrated net primary production account for less than 5 % of the its annual value, whereas an increase of 30 % in the light extinction factor impacts primary production by approximately 10 %.

This paper is the outcome of a workshop held in Rome in November 2011 on the occasion of the 25th anniversary of the POEM (Physical Oceanography of the Eastern Mediterranean) program. In the workshop discussions, a number of unresolved issues were identified for the physical and biogeochemical properties of the Mediterranean Sea as a whole, i.e., comprising the Western and Eastern sub-basins. Over the successive two years, the related ideas were discussed among the group of scientists who participated in the workshop and who have contributed to the writing of this paper. Three major topics were identified, each of them being the object of a section divided into a number of different sub-sections, each addressing a specific physical, chemical or biological issue: 1. Assessment of basin-wide physical/biochemical properties, of their variability and interactions. 2. Relative importance of external forcing functions (wind stress, heat/moisture fluxes, forcing through straits) vs. internal variability. 3. Shelf/deep sea interactions and exchanges of physical/biogeochemical properties and how they affect the sub-basin circulation and property distribution. Furthermore, a number of unresolved scientific/methodological issues were also identified and are reported in each sub-section after a short discussion of the present knowledge. They represent the collegial consensus of the scientists contributing to the paper. Naturally, the unresolved issues presented here constitute the choice of the authors and therefore they may not be exhaustive and/or complete. The overall goal is to stimulate a broader interdisciplinary discussion among the scientists of the Mediterranean oceanographic community, leading to enhanced collaborative efforts and exciting future discoveries.

Ocean ecosystems are subject to a multitude of stressors, including changes in ocean physics and biogeochemistry, and direct anthropogenic influences. Implementation of protective and adaptive measures for ocean ecosystems requires a combination of ocean observations with analysis and prediction tools. These can guide assessments of the current state of ocean ecosystems, elucidate ongoing trends and shifts, and anticipate impacts of climate change and management policies. Analysis and prediction tools are defined here as ocean circulation models that are coupled to biogeochemical or ecological models. The range of potential applications for these systems is broad, ranging from reanalyses for the assessment of past and current states, and short-term and seasonal forecasts, to scenario simulations including climate change projections. The objectives of this article are to illustrate current capabilities with regard to the three types of applications, and to discuss the challenges and opportunities. Representative examples of global and regional systems are described with particular emphasis on those in operational or pre-operational use. With regard to the benefits and challenges, similar considerations apply to biogeochemical and ecological prediction systems as do to physical systems. However, at present there are at least two major differences: (1) biogeochemical observation streams are much sparser than physical streams presenting a significant hinderance, and (2) biogeochemical and ecological models are largely unconstrained because of insufficient observations. Expansion of biogeochemical and ecological observation systems will allow for significant advances in the development and application of analysis and prediction tools for ocean biogeochemistry and ecosystems, with multiple societal benefits.

In the vast Low Nutrient Low‐Chlorophyll (LNLC) Ocean, the vertical nutrient supply from the subsurface to the sunlit surface waters is low, and atmospheric contribution of nutrients may be one order of magnitude greater over short timescales. The short turnover time of atmospheric Fe and N supply (<1 month for nitrate) further supports deposition being an important source of nutrients in LNLC regions. Yet, the extent to which atmospheric inputs are impacting biological activity and modifying the carbon balance in oligotrophic environments has not been constrained. Here, we quantify and compare the biogeochemical impacts of atmospheric deposition in LNLC regions using both a compilation of experimental data and model outputs. A metadata‐analysis of recently conducted field and laboratory bioassay experiments reveals complex responses, and the overall impact is not a simple “fertilization effect of increasing phytoplankton biomass” as observed in HNLC regions. Although phytoplankton growth may be enhanced, increases in bacterial activity and respiration result in weakening of biological carbon sequestration. The application of models using climatological or time‐averaged non‐synoptic deposition rates produced responses that were generally much lower than observed in the bioassay experiments. We demonstrate that experimental data and model outputs show better agreement on short timescale (days to weeks) when strong synoptic pulse of aerosols deposition, similar in magnitude to those observed in the field and introduced in bioassay experiments, is superimposed over the mean atmospheric deposition fields. These results suggest that atmospheric impacts in LNLC regions have been underestimated by models, at least at daily to weekly timescales, as they typically overlook large synoptic variations in atmospheric deposition and associated nutrient and particle inputs. Inclusion of the large synoptic variability of atmospheric input, and improved representation and parameterization of key processes that respond to atmospheric deposition, is required to better constrain impacts in ocean biogeochemical models. This is critical for understanding and prediction of current and future functioning of LNLC regions and their contribution to the global carbon cycle.

An updated climatology, based on a comprehensive data set (1911–2009) of temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen, has been produced for the whole Adriatic Sea with the variational inverse method using the DIVA (Data-Interpolating Variational Analysis) software. Climatological maps were produced at 26 levels and validated with ordinary cross-validation and with a real vs. synthetic temperature–salinity diagram intercomparison. The concept of climatology–observation misfit (COM) has been introduced as an estimate of the physical variability associated with the climatological structures. In order to verify the temporal stability of the climatology, long-term variability has been investigated in the Middle Adriatic and the South Adriatic pits, regarded as the most suitable records of possible long-term changes. Compared with previous climatologies, this study allows a clear identification of the seasonal dynamic of the southern Adriatic, where a clear oxygen minimum is typically observed in the centre of the South Adriatic Gyre. New and better resolved features emerged from this analysis: (1) below 100 m all properties profoundly differ between the central and the southern Adriatic and seem characterized by different biogeochemical dynamics; (2) the South Adriatic Pit clearly shows the remote effects of the Eastern Mediterranean Transient, while no effect is observed in the Middle Adriatic Pit; (3) the deepest part of the southern Adriatic seems now to be significantly saltier (+0.18 psu since the period 1910–1914, with an increase of +0.018 decade⁻¹ since the late 1940s) and warmer (+0.54 °C since 1910–1914) even though a long-term temperature trend could not be statistically demonstrated; (4) the Middle Adriatic Pit shows a long-term increase in apparent oxygen utilization (+0.77 mL L⁻¹ since 1910–1914, with a constant increase of +0.2 mL L⁻¹ decade⁻¹ after the 1970s).