Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a relentlessly progressive, fatal motor neuron disease with a variable natural history. There are no accurate models that predict the disease course and outcomes, which complicates risk assessment and counselling for individual patients, stratification of patients for trials, and timing of interventions. We therefore aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting a composite survival endpoint for individual patients with ALS. We obtained data for patients from 14 specialised ALS centres (each one designated as a cohort) in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, and the UK. All patients were diagnosed in the centres after excluding other diagnoses and classified according to revised El Escorial criteria. We assessed 16 patient characteristics as potential predictors of a composite survival outcome (time between onset of symptoms and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day, tracheostomy, or death) and applied backward elimination with bootstrapping in the largest population-based dataset for predictor selection. Data were gathered on the day of diagnosis or as soon as possible thereafter. Predictors that were selected in more than 70% of the bootstrap resamples were used to develop a multivariable Royston-Parmar model for predicting the composite survival outcome in individual patients. We assessed the generalisability of the model by estimating heterogeneity of predictive accuracy across external populations (ie, populations not used to develop the model) using internal-external cross-validation, and quantified the discrimination using the concordance (c) statistic (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve) and calibration using a calibration slope. Data were collected between Jan 1, 1992, and Sept 22, 2016 (the largest data-set included data from 1936 patients). The median follow-up time was 97·5 months (IQR 52·9-168·5). Eight candidate predictors entered the prediction model: bulbar versus non-bulbar onset (univariable hazard ratio [HR] 1·71, 95% CI 1·63-1·79), age at onset (1·03, 1·03-1·03), definite versus probable or possible ALS (1·47, 1·39-1·55), diagnostic delay (0·52, 0·51-0·53), forced vital capacity (HR 0·99, 0·99-0·99), progression rate (6·33, 5·92-6·76), frontotemporal dementia (1·34, 1·20-1·50), and presence of a C9orf72 repeat expansion (1·45, 1·31-1·61), all p<0·0001. The c statistic for external predictive accuracy of the model was 0·78 (95% CI 0·77-0·80; 95% prediction interval [PI] 0·74-0·82) and the calibration slope was 1·01 (95% CI 0·95-1·07; 95% PI 0·83-1·18). The model was used to define five groups with distinct median predicted (SE) and observed (SE) times in months from symptom onset to the composite survival outcome: very short 17·7 (0·20), 16·5 (0·23); short 25·3 (0·06), 25·2 (0·35); intermediate 32·2 (0·09), 32·8 (0·46); long 43·7 (0·21), 44·6 (0·74); and very long 91·0 (1·84), 85·6 (1·96). We have developed an externally validated model to predict survival without tracheostomy and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day in European patients with ALS. This model could be applied to individualised patient management, counselling, and future trial design, but to maximise the benefit and prevent harm it is intended to be used by medical doctors only. Netherlands ALS Foundation.

Heterozygous missense mutations in the N-terminal motor or coiled-coil domains of the kinesin family member 5A (KIF5A) gene cause monogenic spastic paraplegia (HSP10) and Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 2 (CMT2). Moreover, heterozygous de novo frame-shift mutations in the C-terminal domain of KIF5A are associated with neonatal intractable myoclonus, a neurodevelopmental syndrome. These findings, together with the observation that many of the disease genes associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disrupt cytoskeletal function and intracellular transport, led us to hypothesize that mutations in KIF5A are also a cause of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Using whole exome sequencing followed by rare variant analysis of 426 patients with familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and 6137 control subjects, we detected an enrichment of KIF5A splice-site mutations in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (2/426 compared to 0/6137 in controls; P = 4.2 × 10⁻³), both located in a hot-spot in the C-terminus of the protein and predicted to affect splicing exon 27. We additionally show co-segregation with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis of two canonical splice-site mutations in two families. Investigation of lymphoblast cell lines from patients with KIF5A splice-site mutations revealed the loss of mutant RNA expression and suggested haploinsufficiency as the most probable underlying molecular mechanism. Furthermore, mRNA sequencing of a rare non-synonymous missense mutation (predicting p.Arg1007Gly) located in the C-terminus of the protein shortly upstream of the splice donor of exon 27 revealed defective KIF5A pre-mRNA splicing in respective patient-derived cell lines owing to abrogation of the donor site. Finally, the non-synonymous single nucleotide variant rs113247976 (minor allele frequency = 1.00% in controls, n = 6137), also located in the C-terminal region [p.(Pro986Leu) in exon 26], was significantly enriched in familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients (minor allele frequency = 3.40%; P = 1.28 × 10⁻⁷). Our study demonstrates that mutations located specifically in a C-terminal hotspot of KIF5A can cause a classical amyotrophic lateral sclerosis phenotype, and underline the involvement of intracellular transport processes in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis pathogenesis.

Background Non-invasive ventilation (NIV) is an efficient method for treating respiratory failure in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). However, it requires a process of adaptation not always achieved due to poor compliance. The role of telemonitoring of NIV is not yet established. Objectives To test the advantage of using modem communication in NIV of ALS patients. Design Prospective, single blinded controlled trial. Population and methods According to their residence, 40 consecutive ventilated ALS patients were assigned to one of two groups: a control group (G1, n=20) in which compliance and ventilator parameter settings were assessed during office visits; or an intervention group (G2, n=20) in which patients received a modem device connected to the ventilator. The number of office and emergency room visits and hospital admissions during the entire span of NIV use and the number of parameter setting changes to achieve full compliance were the primary outcome measurements. Results Demographic and clinical features were similar between the two groups at admission. No difference in compliance was found between the groups. The incidence of changes in parameter settings throughout the survival period with NIV was lower in G2 (p<0.0001) but it was increased during the initial period needed to achieve full compliance. The number of office or emergency room visits and inhospital admissions was significantly lower in G2 (p<0.0001). Survival showed a trend favouring G2 (p=0.13). Conclusions This study shows that telemonitoring reduces health care utilisation with probable favourable implications on costs, survival and functional status.

Background: The GGGGCC-repeat expansion in C9orf72 is the most frequent mutation found in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and frontotemporal dementia (FTD). Most of the studies on C9orf72 have relied on repeat-primed PCR (RP-PCR) methods for detection of the expansions. To investigate the inherent limitations of this technique, we compared methods and results of 14 laboratories. Methods: The 14 laboratories genotyped DNA from 78 individuals (diagnosed with ALS or FTD) in a blinded fashion. Eleven laboratories used a combination of amplicon-length analysis and RP-PCR, whereas three laboratories used RP-PCR alone; Southern blotting techniques were used as a reference. Results: Using PCR-based techniques, 5 of the 14 laboratories got results in full accordance with the Southern blotting results. Only 50 of the 78 DNA samples got the same genotype result in all 14 laboratories. There was a high degree of false positive and false negative results, and at least one sample could not be genotyped at all in 9 of the 14 laboratories. The mean sensitivity of a combination of amplicon-length analysis and RP-PCR was 95.0% (73.9–100%), and the mean specificity was 98.0% (87.5–100%). Overall, a sensitivity and specificity of more than 95% was observed in only seven laboratories. Conclusions: Because of the wide range seen in genotyping results, we recommend using a combination of amplicon-length analysis and RP-PCR as a minimum in a research setting. We propose that Southern blotting techniques should be the gold standard, and be made obligatory in a clinical diagnostic setting.