Forecasting the dynamics of the number of cases with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in a given population is a challenging task due to behavioural changes which occur over short periods. Planning of hospital resources and containment measures in the near term require a scenario analysis and the use of predictive models to gain insight into possible outcomes for each scenario. In this paper, we present the SEIR-H epidemiological model for the spread dynamics in a given population and the impact of COVID-19 in the local health system. It was developed as an extension of the classic SEIR model to account for required hospital resources and behavioural changes of the population in response to containment measures. Time-varying parameters such as transmissibility are estimated using Bayesian methods, based on the database of reported cases with a moving time-window strategy. The assessment of the model offers reasonable results with estimated parameters and simulations, reflecting the observed dynamics in Paraguay. The proposed model can be used to simulate future scenarios and possible effects of containment strategies, to guide the public institution response based on the available resources in the local health system.

Anais do Encontro Nacional de Modelagem Computacional, Encontro de Ciência e Tecnologia de Materiais, Conferência Sul em Modelagem Computacional e Seminário e Workshop em Engenharia Oceânica (978-85-5722-474-2) - Computer Simulation Of Pressure And Velocity Fields In Drug-Eluting Stents Using The Gridap Library

The use of drug-eluting stents (DES) has become increasingly common in the treatment of coronary artery disease. This procedure involves placing a small metal device, usually coated with a drug-releasing polymer, in a blocked artery to improve blood flow and prevent cardiovascular complications. However, despite the benefits, the increased use of stents has raised concerns, especially regarding the risks of restenosis and thrombosis. The finite element method was used to analyze the flow in a coronary artery, as a first step to study the drug release by the DES. The Navier-Stokes and the Darcy equations were used to model blood flow in a coronary artery considering the arterial lumen and porous arterial wall, thus taking into account the artery characteristics, such as geometry and blood flow. The simulations are performed to find the blood flow through two arterial domains, the wall and the lumen, considering an axi-symmetric two-dimensional geometry. The numerical code was implemented in Julia language using the Gridap library. The contribution of this work is to allow for the analysis of the coupled Navier-Stokes/Darcy problem, which is shown to be important when the arterial wall is not in perfect contact with the stent.