We assess the additional forest cover protected by 13 rural communities located in the southern state of Chiapas, Mexico, as a result of the economic incentives received through the country's national program of payments for biodiversity conservation. We use spatially explicit data at the intra-community level to define a credible counterfactual of conservation outcomes. We use covariate-matching specifications associated with spatially explicit variables and difference-in-difference estimators to determine the treatment effect. We estimate that the additional conservation represents between 12 and 14.7 percent of forest area enrolled in the program in comparison to control areas. Despite this high degree of additionality, we also observe lack of compliance in some plots participating in the PES program. This lack of compliance casts doubt on the ability of payments alone to guarantee long-term additionality in context of high deforestation rates, even with an augmented program budget or extension of participation to communities not yet enrolled.

Predictions of tropical forest structure at the landscape level still present relatively high levels of uncertainty. In this study we explore the capabilities of high-resolution Satellite Pour l'Observation de la Terre (SPOT)-5 XS images to estimate basal area, tree volume and tree biomass of a tropical rainforest region in Chiapas, Mexico. SPOT-5 satellite images and forest inventory data from 87 sites were used to establish a multiple linear regression model. The 87 0.1-ha plots covered a wide range of forest structures, including mature forest, with values from 74.7 to 607.1 t ha⁻¹. Spectral bands, image transformations and texture variables were explored as independent variables of a multiple linear regression model. The R²s of the final models were 0.58 for basal area, 0.70 for canopy height, 0.73 for bole volume, and 0.71 for biomass. A leave-one-out cross-validation produced a root mean square. error (RMSE) of 5.02 m² ha⁻¹ (relative RMSE of 22.8%) for basal area; 3.22 m (16.1%) for canopy height; 69.08 m³ ha⁻¹ (30.7%) for timber volume, and 59.3 t ha⁻¹ (21.2%) for biomass. In particular, the texture variable ‘variance of near-infrared’ turned out to be an excellent predictor for forest structure variables.

Accurate estimates of above ground biomass (AGB) are needed for monitoring carbon in tropical forests. LiDAR data can provide precise AGB estimations because it can capture the horizontal and vertical structure of vegetation. However, the accuracy of AGB estimations from LiDAR is affected by a co-registration error between LiDAR data and field plots resulting in spatial discrepancies between LiDAR and field plot data. Here, we evaluated the impacts of plot location error and plot size on the accuracy of AGB estimations predicted from LiDAR data in two types of tropical dry forests in Yucatán, México. We sampled woody plants of three size classes in 29 nested plots (80 m², 400 m² and 1000 m²) in a semi-deciduous forest (Kiuic) and 28 plots in a semi-evergreen forest (FCP) and estimated AGB using local allometric equations. We calculated several LiDAR metrics from airborne data and used a Monte Carlo simulation approach to assess the influence of plot location errors (2 to 10 m) and plot size on ABG estimations from LiDAR using regression analysis. Our results showed that the precision of AGB estimations improved as plot size increased from 80 m² to 1000 m² (R² = 0.33 to 0.75 and 0.23 to 0.67 for Kiuic and FCP respectively). We also found that increasing GPS location errors resulted in higher AGB estimation errors, especially in the smallest sample plots. In contrast, the largest plots showed consistently lower estimation errors that varied little with plot location error. We conclude that larger plots are less affected by co-registration error and vegetation conditions, highlighting the importance of selecting an appropriate plot size for field forest inventories used for estimating biomass.

The commitment by over 100 governments covering over 90% of the world’s forests at the COP26 in Glasgow to end deforestation by 2030 requires more effective forest monitoring systems. The near real-time (NRT) change detection of forest cover loss enables forest landowners, government agencies and local communities to monitor natural and anthropogenic disturbances in a much timelier fashion than the thematic maps that are released every year. NRT deforestation alerts enable the establishment of more up-to-date forest inventories and rapid responses to unlicensed logging. The Copernicus Sentinel-2 satellites provide operational Earth observation (EO) data from multi-spectral optical/near-infrared wavelengths every five days at a global scale and at 10 m resolution. The amount of acquired data requires cloud computing or high-performance computing for ongoing monitoring systems and an automated system for processing, analyzing and delivering the information promptly. Here, we present a Sentinel-2-based NRT change detection system, assess its performance over two study sites, Manantlán in Mexico and Cartagena del Chairá in Colombia, and evaluate the forest changes that occurred in 2018. An independent validation with very high-resolution PlanetScope (~3 m) and RapidEye (~5 m) data suggests that the proposed NRT change detection system can accurately detect forest cover loss (> 87%), other vegetation loss (> 76%) and other vegetation gain (> 71%). Furthermore, the proposed NRT change detection system is designed to be attuned using in situ data. Therefore, it is scalable to larger regions, entire countries and even continents.

Coffee is one of the most important agricultural commodities of Mexico. Mapping coffee land cover is still a challenge because it is grown mainly on small areas in agroforestry systems (AFS), which are located in hard-to-access mountainous regions. The objective of this research was to map coffee AFS types in a mountainous region using the changing spectral response patterns over the dry season as well as supplementary data. We employed Sentinel-1, Sentinel-2 and ALOS-Palsar images, a digital elevation model, soil moisture layers, and 150 field plots. First, we defined three coffee AFS types based on their structural and spectral characteristics. Then, we performed a recursive feature elimination analysis to identify the most relevant predictor variables for each land use/cover class in the region. Next, we constructed a predictor variable dataset for each AFS type and one for the remaining land use/cover classes. Afterward, four maps were generated using a random forest (RF) classifier. Finally, we combined the four maps into a unique land-cover map through a maximum likelihood algorithm. Using a validation sample of 932 sites derived from Planet images (4.5 m pixel size), we estimated a 95% map overall accuracy. Two AFS types were classified as having low error; the third, with the highest tree density, had the lowest accuracy. The results obtained show that the infrared and near-infrared bands from the Sentinel-2 scenes are particularly useful for coffee AFS discrimination. However, supplementary data are required to improve the performance of the classifier. Our findings also highlight the importance of the multi-temporal and multi-dataset approach for identifying complex production systems in areas of high topographic heterogeneity.