Michele Brunetti

Dr. Michele Brunetti


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

27Years (2000-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

View All Publications
6 July 2006 in International Journal of Climatology
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
IAIngeborg Auer
Ingeborg Auer
RBReinhard Böhm
Reinhard Böhm
AJAnita Jurkovic
Anita Jurkovic
WLWolfgang Lipa
Wolfgang Lipa
AOAlexander Orlik
Alexander Orlik
ENElena Nieplova
Elena Nieplova
This paper describes the HISTALP database, consisting of monthly homogenised records of temperature, pressure, precipitation, sunshine and cloudiness for the ‘Greater Alpine Region’ (GAR, 4–19°E, 43–49°N, 0–3500m asl). The longest temperature and air pressure series extend back to 1760, precipitation to 1800, cloudiness to the 1840s and sunshine to the 1880s. A systematic QC procedure has been applied to the series and a high number of inhomogeneities (more than 2500) and outliers (more than 5000) have been detected and removed. The 557 HISTALP series are kept in different data modes: original and homogenised, gap‐filled and outlier corrected station mode series, grid‐1 series (anomaly fields at 1° × 1°, lat × long) and Coarse Resolution Subregional (CRS) mean series according to an EOF‐based regionalisation. The leading climate variability features within the GAR are discussed through selected examples and a concluding linear trend analysis for 100, 50 and 25‐year subperiods for the four horizontal and two altitudinal CRSs. Among the key findings of the trend analysis is the parallel centennial decrease/increase of both temperature and air pressure in the 19th/20th century. The 20th century increase (+1.2 °C/+ 1.1 hPa for annual GAR‐means) evolved stepwise with a first peak near 1950 and the second increase (1.3 °C/0.6hPa per 25 years) starting in the 1970s. Centennial and decadal scale temperature trends were identical for all subregions. Air pressure, sunshine and cloudiness show significant differences between low versus high elevations. A long‐term increase of the high‐elevation series relative to the low‐elevation series is given for sunshine and air pressure. Of special interest is the exceptional high correlation near 0.9 between the series on mean temperature and air pressure difference (high‐minus low‐elevation). This, further developed via some atmospheric statics and thermodynamics, allows the creation of ‘barometric temperature series’ without use of the measures of temperature. They support the measured temperature trends in the region. Precipitation shows the most significant regional and seasonal differences with, e.g., remarkable opposite 20th century evolution for NW (9% increase) versus SE (9% decrease). Other long‐ and short‐term features are discussed and indicate the promising potential of the new database for further analyses and applications. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

25 January 2006 in International Journal of Climatology
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
MBMichele Brunetti
Michele Brunetti
MMMaurizio Maugeri
Maurizio Maugeri
FMFabio Monti
Fabio Monti
TNTeresa Nanni
Teresa Nanni
The Italian monthly temperature (mean, maximum and minimum) and precipitation secular data set was updated and completely revised. Station density and metadata availability were greatly improved and the series were subjected to a detailed quality control and homogenisation procedure. The data homogenisation is described in detail. The bias affecting original data is quantified by studying the temporal evolution of the mean adjustments applied to the series and examined in the light of the stations history. The results stress the importance of homogenisation in climate change studies.The final data set was clustered into climatically homogeneous regions by means of a Principal Component Analysis. Yearly and seasonal trend analyses were performed both on regional average series and on the mean Italian series. The results highlight a positive trend for mean temperature of about 1 K per century all over Italy; it is generally higher for minimum temperature than for the maximum temperature. The progressive application of trend analysis shows that, in the last 50 years, behaviour is the opposite; the maximum temperature trend being stronger than that of the minimum temperature. This has led to a negative trend in the daily temperature range that for the last 50 years has become positive. Precipitation shows a decreasing tendency, even if low and rarely significant, the negative trend being only 5% per century on a yearly basis. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

30 November 2001 in International Journal of Climatology
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
RBReinhard Böhm
Reinhard Böhm
IAIngeborg Auer
Ingeborg Auer
MBMichele Brunetti
Michele Brunetti
MMMaurizio Maugeri
Maurizio Maugeri
TNTeresa Nanni
Teresa Nanni
WSWolfgang Schöner
Wolfgang Schöner
This paper investigates temperature variability in the Alps and their surroundings based on 97 instrumental series of monthly mean temperatures. A discussion of the initial homogenizing procedure illustrates its advantages and risks. A comparison of the homogenized series with the original series clearly shows the necessity to homogenize. Each of the original series had breaks (an average of five per series) and the mean of all series was systematically biased by non‐climatic noise. This noise has subdued the long‐term amplitude of the temperature evolution in the region by 0.5 K. The relatively high spatial resolution of the data enabled a regionalization within the study area of 680 000 km2 into six sub‐regions based on principal component analysis of the monthly series. Long‐term temperature evolution proved to be highly similar across the region—thus making a mean series (averaged over all 97 single series) representative of the study area. Trend analysis (based on progressive forward and backward Mann–Kendall statistics and on progressive analysis of linear regression coefficients) was performed on seasonal and annual series. The results diverge from those of global datasets. This is mainly due to the extension of the 240‐year Alpine dataset by 100 years prior to the mid‐19th century, and also due to the advantages of a dense and homogenized regional dataset. The long‐term features include an initial decrease of the annual and seasonal series to a minimum followed by a positive trend until 1998. The minima are 1890 for the entire year and winter, 1840 for spring and 1920 for summer and autumn, respectively. The initial decreasing trend is more evident in spring and summer, less in autumn and smallest in winter. The mean annual temperature increase since 1890 in the Alps is 1.1 K, which is twice as much as the 0.55 K in the respective grid boxes of the most frequently used global dataset of the Climatic Research Unit (CRU), University of East Anglia. To enable an easier and more systematic handling of the dataset, these data have been interpolated to a 1°×1° longitude–latitude grid. The 105 low‐elevation and 16 high‐elevation grid point series are widely available without restrictions for scientific research and can be obtained from the authors. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society

10 January 2012 in Climate of the Past
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
VVV. K. C. Venema
V. K. C. Venema
OMO. Mestre
O. Mestre
EAEnric Aguilar
Enric Aguilar
IAI. Auer
I. Auer
JGJ. A. Guijarro
J. A. Guijarro
TBT. Brandsma
T. Brandsma
The COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) Action ES0601: advances in homogenization methods of climate series: an integrated approach (HOME) has executed a blind intercomparison and validation study for monthly homogenization algorithms. Time series of monthly temperature and precipitation were evaluated because of their importance for climate studies and because they represent two important types of statistics (additive and multiplicative). The algorithms were validated against a realistic benchmark dataset. The benchmark contains real inhomogeneous data as well as simulated data with inserted inhomogeneities. Random independent break-type inhomogeneities with normally distributed breakpoint sizes were added to the simulated datasets. To approximate real world conditions, breaks were introduced that occur simultaneously in multiple station series within a simulated network of station data. The simulated time series also contained outliers, missing data periods and local station trends. Further, a stochastic nonlinear global (network-wide) trend was added. Participants provided 25 separate homogenized contributions as part of the blind study. After the deadline at which details of the imposed inhomogeneities were revealed, 22 additional solutions were submitted. These homogenized datasets were assessed by a number of performance metrics including (i) the centered root mean square error relative to the true homogeneous value at various averaging scales, (ii) the error in linear trend estimates and (iii) traditional contingency skill scores. The metrics were computed both using the individual station series as well as the network average regional series. The performance of the contributions depends significantly on the error metric considered. Contingency scores by themselves are not very informative. Although relative homogenization algorithms typically improve the homogeneity of temperature data, only the best ones improve precipitation data. Training the users on homogenization software was found to be very important. Moreover, state-of-the-art relative homogenization algorithms developed to work with an inhomogeneous reference are shown to perform best. The study showed that automatic algorithms can perform as well as manual ones.

9 May 2011 in Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
MAMartin de Luis Arrillaga
Martin de Luis Arrillaga
JGJ. C. González-Hidalgo
J. C. González-Hidalgo
MBMichele Brunetti
Michele Brunetti
LALuis Alberto Longares ALBERTO LONGARES Aladrén
Luis Alberto Longares ALBERTO LONGARES Aladrén
An analysis was made of the Precipitation Concentration Index using the new MOPREDAS database of monthly precipitation in Spain (Monthly Precipitation Data base of Spain). The database was compiled after exhaustive quality control of the complete digitalized Spanish Meterological Agency (AEMet) archives and contains a total set of 2670 complete and homogeneous monthly precipitation series from 1946 to 2005. Thus, MOPREDAS currently holds the densest information available for the 1946–2005 period for Spain and ensures a high resolution of results. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) is a powerful indicator of the temporal distribution of precipitation, traditionally applied at annual scales; as the value increases, the more concentrated the precipitation. Furthermore PCI is a part of the well-known Fournier index, with a long tradition on natural system analyses, as for example soil erosion. In this paper, the mean values of annual, seasonal and wet and dry periods of PCI in the conterminous Spain and for two normal periods (1946–1975 and 1976–2005) were studied. Precipitation in Spain follows a general NW-SE spatial pattern during the wet (months) period due to the Atlantic storm track, while during the dry (months) period, it follows a predominantly N-S spatial pattern. As a result, the annual values of PCI combine the two patterns and show a SW-NE PCI gradient. The analyses of the two sub-periods show significant changes in the precipitation occurred in conterminous Spain from 1946 to 2005, and precipitation concentration increased across most of the IP. At an annual scale, PCI increases mostly due to an increase in precipitation concentration during the wet season. At a seasonal scale significant changes were detected between 1945–1975 and 1976–2005, particularly in autumn (increase of PCI values), while changes in winter, spring and summer were mostly localized and not generalized (both increase and decrease). Changes in PCI seem to be complex and appear to be related to global atmospheric features and synoptic and local factors affecting precipitation trends. We discuss the possible explanation linked to the atmospheric pattern and monthly trends and their implications.

3 February 2009 in International Journal of Climatology
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
MBMichele Brunetti
Michele Brunetti
GLGianluca Lentini
Gianluca Lentini
MMMaurizio Maugeri
Maurizio Maugeri
TNTeresa Nanni
Teresa Nanni
IAIngeborg Auer
Ingeborg Auer
WSWolfgang Schöner
Wolfgang Schöner
An extensive analysis of the HISTALP database is presented with the aim of giving a comprehensive picture of secular climate variability and change in the Greater Alpine Region (GAR, 4–19 E, 43–49 N). The HISTALP database encompasses 242 sites and concerns temperature, pressure, precipitation, cloudiness, sunshine duration, vapour pressure and relative humidity. The analyses are based on four regional mean records representing different GAR low‐level areas and on an additional mean record representing high‐level locations.The first goal of the paper is to give an overview of the seasonal and annual records for the different variables, aiming to highlight both variability on decadal time scale and long‐term evolution. Then it focuses on trend and correlation analysis. Trends are presented both for the period of common data availability for all regional average series and for moving windows that permit studying the trends over a wide range of timescales. Correlations among the different variables are presented both for the regional average series and for their high‐pass‐filtered versions.The analyses, beside highlighting a warming that is about twice as large as the global trend, also show that the different variables have responded in different ways to this warming and that the mutual interactions linking the different variables are often present only at specific temporal scales and only in parts of the GAR and in defined seasons. In spite of this complex behaviour, which may also be due to some residual inhomogeneities still affecting the data, the analyses give evidence that the HISTALP database has an excellent internal consistency and show that the availability of a multi‐variable database turns out to be very useful in order to evaluate the reliability of the reconstruction of each variable and to better understand the behaviour and the mutual interactions of the different variables. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society