Uncertainties in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise (SLR) complicate decision making on coastal adaptation. Large uncertainty arises from potential ice mass-loss from Antarctica that could rapidly increase SLR in the second half of this century. The implications of SLR may be existential for a low-lying country like the Netherlands and warrant exploration of high-impact low-likelihood scenarios. To deal with uncertain SLR, the Netherlands has adopted an adaptive pathways plan. This paper analyzes the implications of storylines leading to extreme SLR for the current adaptive plan in the Netherlands, focusing on flood risk, fresh water resources, and coastline management. It further discusses implications for coastal adaptation in low-lying coastal zones considering timescales of adaptation including the decisions lifetime and lead-in time for preparation and implementation. We find that as sea levels rise faster and higher, sand nourishment volumes to maintain the Dutch coast may need to be up to 20 times larger than to date in 2100, storm surge barriers will need to close at increasing frequency until closed permanently, and intensified saltwater intrusion will reduce freshwater availability while the demand is rising. The expected lifetime of investments will reduce drastically. Consequently, step-wise adaptation needs to occur at an increasing frequency or with larger increments while there is still large SLR uncertainty with the risk of under- or overinvesting. Anticipating deeply uncertain, high SLR scenarios helps to enable timely adaptation and to appreciate the value of emission reduction and monitoring of the Antarctica contribution to SLR.

Flooding of the southern part of the North Sea occurred between 9000 and 8000 BP, when the rate of relative sea-level rise was on the order of 0.7 cm per year for the Dover Strait Region and 1.6 cm per year for the area north of the Frisian Islands, forcing the shoreline to recede rapidly. When relative sea-level rise decelerated after 7000 BP for the Belgian coast and 6000 BP for the central Netherlands coast, sediment supply by the tidal currents balanced the creation of accommodation space in the estuaries and other back-barrier basins. Consequently, the barrier started to stabilize, and the tidal basins and their inlets silted up. Between 5500 and 4500 BP, the Belgian coastal plain changed into a freshwater marsh with peat accumulation, and the same happened 500–1000 years later in the western provinces of the Netherlands. The E-W running barrier/back-barrier system of the Frisian Islands in the northern Netherlands stayed open until today, however, because of lower sediment supply.The period between 4000 and 2000 BP was relatively quiet due to the strong deceleration of the rate of sea-level rise; peat cushions developed behind the barriers, which were straightened by erosion of the headlands. Major and often catastrophic flooding occurred in the Middle Ages, when the estuaries in the southwestern part of the Netherlands formed.About 226 (± 15%) × 10⁹ m³ sediment, mostly sand, is stored in the barriers and back-barrier basins of the Netherlands, 70% of which was deposited prior to 5000 BP. About 10% of the stored sediment is estimated to be of alluvial origin. Most of the sediment is derived by the erosion of the Pleistocene basement during recession of the barriers, but tide-induced crossshore transport from the North Sea forms an additional source for the barriers and back-barriers of the west-facing coast of the Netherlands.

The availability of nearly 100 years of bathymetric measurements allows the analysis of the morphodynamic evolution of the Dutch Wadden Sea under rising sea level and increasing human constraint. The historically observed roll-over mechanisms of landward barrier and coastline retreat cannot be sustained naturally due to numerous erosion control measures that have fixed the tidal basin and barrier dimensions. Nevertheless, the large continuous sedimentation in the tidal basins (nearly 600 million m³), the retained inlets and the similar channel-shoal characteristics of the basins during the observation period indicate that the Wadden Sea is resilient to anthropogenic influence, and can import sediment volumes even larger than those needed to compensate the present rate of sea-level rise. The largest sedimentation occurs in the Western Wadden Sea, where the influence of human intervention is dominant. The large infilling rates in closed-off channels, and along the basin shoreline, rather than a gradual increase in channel flat heights, render it likely that this sedimentation is primarily a response to the closure of the Zuiderzee and not an adaptation to sea-level rise. Most of the sediments were supplied by the ebb-tidal deltas. It is, however, unlikely that the sediment volume needed to reach a new equilibrium morphology in the Western Wadden Sea can be delivered by the remaining ebb-tidal deltas alone.

The aim of this paper is to reconstruct the evolution of the early to middle Holocene Rhine-Meuse river mouths in the western Netherlands and to understand the observed spatial and temporal changes in facies. This is achieved by constructing three delta wide cross-sections using a newly accumulated database with thousands of core descriptions and cone penetration test results, together with a large set of pollen/diatom analyses and OSL/¹⁴C-dates. Most of the studied deposits accumulated in the fluvial-to-marine transition zone, a highly complex area due to the interaction of terrestrial and marine processes. Understanding how the facies change within this zone, is necessary to make correct palaeogeographic interpretations.We find a well preserved early to middle Holocene coastal prism resting on lowstand valley floors. Aggradation started after 9 ka cal BP as a result of rapid sea-level rise. Around 8 ka most parts of the study area were permanently flooded and under tidal influence. After 8 ka a bay-head delta was formed near Delft, meaning that little sand could reach the North Sea. Several subsequent avulsions resulted in a shift from the constantly retreating Rhine river mouth to the north. When after 6.5 ka the most northerly river course was formed (Oude Rijn), the central part of the palaeovalley was quickly transgressed and transformed into a large tidal basin. Shortly before 6 ka retrogradation of the coastline halted and tidal inlets began to close, marking the end of the early-middle Holocene transgression.This paper describes the transition from a fluvial valley to an estuary in unprecedented detail and enables more precise palaeo-reconstructions, evaluation of relative importance of fluvial and coastal processes in rapid transgressed river mouths, and more accurate sediment-budget calculations. The described and well illustrated (changes in) facies are coupled to lithogenetic units. This will aid detailed palaeogeographic interpretations from sedimentary successions, not only in the Netherlands, but also in other estuarine and deltaic regions.