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There is an urgent need to take coastal retreat more seriously as an option for adapting to sea level rise (SLR) and as a strategy capable of providing positive outcomes, if planned ahead. Early signs of such thinking are emerging. We demonstrate how exploring pathways to managed retreat adds value in the context of irreversible long-term SLR. Retreat is typically framed and understood as a single action, largely used after events rather than preemptively, and considered as a last resort. However, implementing managed retreat constitutes a multidecadal sequence of actions (i.e., across pathways) including community engagement, vulnerability assessment, land use planning, active retreat, compensation, and repurposing. This Policy Forum advances practical knowledge on what pathways to coastal retreat may look like and how they can pave the way for flexible and positive transformational adaptation, if started now.
Marjolijn Haasnoot; Judy Lawrence; Alexandre K. Magnan. Pathways to coastal retreat. Science 2021, 372, 1287 -1290.
AMA StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot, Judy Lawrence, Alexandre K. Magnan. Pathways to coastal retreat. Science. 2021; 372 (6548):1287-1290.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot; Judy Lawrence; Alexandre K. Magnan. 2021. "Pathways to coastal retreat." Science 372, no. 6548: 1287-1290.
The need for explicitly considering equity in climate change adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized. However, evaluations of adaptation often adopt an aggregated perspective, while disaggregation of results is important to learn about who benefits when and where. A typical example is adaptation of rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Efforts focused on flood protection have mainly benefitted large‐scale farmers while harming small‐scale farmers. To investigate the distributional consequences of adaptation policies in the Vietnam Mekong Delta, we assess both aggregate total output and equity indicators, as well as disaggregated impacts in terms of district‐level farming profitability. Doing so requires an adequate representation of the multisectoral dynamics between the human and biophysical systems which influence farming profitability. We develop a spatially‐explicit integrated assessment model that couples inundation, sedimentation, soil fertility and nutrient dynamics, and behavioral land‐use change and farming profitability calculation. We find that inter‐district inequality responds in a non‐linear way to climatic and socio‐economic changes and choices of adaptation policies. The patterns of who wins and who loses could change substantially when a different policy is implemented or if a slightly different uncertain future materializes. We also find that there is no simple ranking of alternative adaptation policies, so one should make trade‐offs based on agreed preferences. Accounting for equity implies exploring the distribution of outcomes over different groups over a range of uncertain futures. Only by accounting for multisectoral dynamics can planners anticipate the equity consequences of adaptation and prepare additional measures to aid the worse‐off actors.
Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan H. Kwakkel; Frans Klijn; Nguyen Viet Dung; Hedwig van Delden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Earth's Future 2021, 9, 1 .
AMA StyleBramka Arga Jafino, Jan H. Kwakkel, Frans Klijn, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hedwig van Delden, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. Earth's Future. 2021; 9 (5):1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBramka Arga Jafino; Jan H. Kwakkel; Frans Klijn; Nguyen Viet Dung; Hedwig van Delden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. 2021. "Accounting for Multisectoral Dynamics in Supporting Equitable Adaptation Planning: A Case Study on the Rice Agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta." Earth's Future 9, no. 5: 1.
Shallow coastal ecosystems have high ecological value and contribute to flood protection. Their stability is, however, sensitive to the amount and rate of future sea level rise (SLR), their ability to trap sediment which allows them to grow with rising sea level, and human response to SLR. So far, studies have focused on assessing SLR impacts using resource-intensive tools. Here, we present an approach for a first-order assessment and easily accessible ‘barcode’ visualization to rapidly assess potential impacts of both SLR and adaptation strategies on coastal ecosystems in a spatially explicit way. Our approach relates habitat types (ecotopes) to water level, morphology and salinity, allowing users to determine shifts in spatial arrangements of ecological zones under different SLR rates and strategies. We illustrate this approach for a transect in the Dutch Wadden Sea. We find that beyond a critical rate of SLR, major changes in ecotope distribution are projected to occur as this part of the Wadden Sea starts to drown due to insufficient sediment import. Even larger impacts arise from adaptation strategies. Closing the barrier islands will turn the Wadden Sea into a freshwater lake-system with the absence of intertidal areas, infilling of channels and bank erosion. A strategy that allows for inland migration of the shoreline, results in a deep tidal basin with large subtidal habitats, and a shifted intertidal zone. Our case study shows that the barcoding approach provides a rapid, quantitative and spatially explicit overview of the potential implications for coastal ecosystems under different SLR scenarios, adaptation strategies and time horizons. This can then be used to screen adaptation strategies before going into a more comprehensive analysis. The barcode visualization allows for easy dissemination of potential ecological impacts to a broad community.
Anouk Timmerman; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Hans Middelkoop; Tjeerd Bouma; Sadie McEvoy. Ecological consequences of sea level rise and flood protection strategies in shallow coastal systems: A quick-scan barcoding approach. Ocean & Coastal Management 2021, 210, 105674 .
AMA StyleAnouk Timmerman, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Hans Middelkoop, Tjeerd Bouma, Sadie McEvoy. Ecological consequences of sea level rise and flood protection strategies in shallow coastal systems: A quick-scan barcoding approach. Ocean & Coastal Management. 2021; 210 ():105674.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAnouk Timmerman; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Hans Middelkoop; Tjeerd Bouma; Sadie McEvoy. 2021. "Ecological consequences of sea level rise and flood protection strategies in shallow coastal systems: A quick-scan barcoding approach." Ocean & Coastal Management 210, no. : 105674.
The future of ski resorts in the Swiss Alps is highly uncertain. Being dependent on snow cover conditions, winter sport tourism is highly susceptible to changes in temperature and precipitation. With the observed warming of the European Alps being well above global average warming, snow cover in Switzerland is projected to shrink at a rapid pace. Climate uncertainty originates from greenhouse gas emission trajectories (RCPs) and differences between climate models. Beyond climate uncertainty, the snow conditions are strongly subject to intra-annual variability. Series of unfavorable years have already led to the financial collapse of several low-altitude ski resorts. Such abrupt collapses with a large impact on the regional economy can be referred to as climate change induced socio-economic tipping points. To some degree, tipping points may be avoided by adaptation measures such as artificial snowmaking, although these measures are also subject to physical and economical constraints. In this study, we use a variety of exploratory modeling techniques to identify tipping points in a coupled physical-economic model applied to six representative ski resorts in the Swiss Alps. New high-resolution climate projections (CH2018) are used to represent climate uncertainty. To improve the coverage of the uncertainty space and accounting for the intra-annual variability of the climate models, a resampling technique was used to produce new climate realizations. A snow process model is used to simulate daily snow-cover in each of the ski resorts. The likelihood of survival of each resort is evaluated from the number of days with good snow conditions for skiing compared to the minimum thresholds obtained from the literature. Economically, the good snow days are translated into the total profit of ski resorts per season of operation. Multiple unfavorable years of total profit may lead to a tipping point. We use scenario discovery to identify the conditions under which these tipping points occur, and reflect on their implications for the future of snow tourism in the Swiss Alps.
Saeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Veruska Muccione; Kees C.H. van Ginkel; Marjolijn Haasnoot. The future of ski resorts in the Swiss Alps: using DMDU to identify tipping points. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleSaeid Ashraf Vaghefi, Veruska Muccione, Kees C.H. van Ginkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot. The future of ski resorts in the Swiss Alps: using DMDU to identify tipping points. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleSaeid Ashraf Vaghefi; Veruska Muccione; Kees C.H. van Ginkel; Marjolijn Haasnoot. 2021. "The future of ski resorts in the Swiss Alps: using DMDU to identify tipping points." , no. : 1.
Context: It is now widely accepted that the climate is changing, and that societal responses will need to be rapid and comprehensive to prevent the most severe impacts. A key milestone in global climate governance is to assess progress on adaptation. To-date, however, there has been negligible robust, systematic synthesis of progress on adaptation or adaptation-relevant responses globally. Aim: The purpose of this review protocol is to outline the methods used by the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) to systematically review human adaptation responses to climate-related changes that have been documented globally since 2013 in the scientific literature . The broad question underpinning this review is: Are we adapting to climate change? More specifically, we ask ‘what is the evidence relating to human adaptation-related responses that can (or are) directly reducing risk, exposure, and/or vulnerability to climate change?’ This work responds to the recognition of the need for high-level syntheses of adaptation research to inform global and regional climate assessments.Methods: We review scientific literature 2013-2019 to identify documents empirically reporting on observed adaptation-related responses to climate change in human systems that can directly reduce risk. We exclude non-empirical (theoretical & conceptual) literature and adaptation in natural systems that occurs without human intervention. Included documents were coded across a set of questions focused on: Who is responding? What responses are documented? What is the extent of the adaptation-related response? What is the evidence that adaptation-related responses reduce risk, exposure and/or vulnerability? Once articles are coded, we conduct a quality appraisal of the coding and develop ‘evidence packages’ for regions and sectors. We supplement this systematic mapping with an expert elicitation exercise, undertaken to assess bias and validity of insights from included/coded literature vis a vis perceptions of real-world adaptation for global regions and sectors, with associated confidence assessments. Related protocols: This protocol represents Part 1 of a 5-part series outlining the phases of methods for this initiative. Part 1 provides an introduction to the Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI) and an overview of methods.
Lea Berrang-Ford; Alexandra Lesnikowski; A. Paige Fischer; A.R. Siders; Katharine J. Mach; Adelle Thomas; Max Callaghan; Neal Haddaway; Rachel Bezner Kerr; Robbert Biesbroek; Kathryn Bowen; Delphine Deryng; Susan Elliott; James D. Ford; Matthias Garschagen; Elisabeth Gilmore; Sherliee Harper; Marjolijn Hassnoot; Tabea Lissner; Shuaib Lwasa; Alexandre K. Magnan; Jan Minx; Mike Morecroft; Mark New; Erin Coughlan de Perez; Diana Reckien; Nick Simpson; Chandni Singh; Lindsay Stringer; Edmond Totin; Chris Trisos; Maarten Van Aalst. The Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI): Part 1 – Introduction and overview of methods. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleLea Berrang-Ford, Alexandra Lesnikowski, A. Paige Fischer, A.R. Siders, Katharine J. Mach, Adelle Thomas, Max Callaghan, Neal Haddaway, Rachel Bezner Kerr, Robbert Biesbroek, Kathryn Bowen, Delphine Deryng, Susan Elliott, James D. Ford, Matthias Garschagen, Elisabeth Gilmore, Sherliee Harper, Marjolijn Hassnoot, Tabea Lissner, Shuaib Lwasa, Alexandre K. Magnan, Jan Minx, Mike Morecroft, Mark New, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Diana Reckien, Nick Simpson, Chandni Singh, Lindsay Stringer, Edmond Totin, Chris Trisos, Maarten Van Aalst. The Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI): Part 1 – Introduction and overview of methods. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLea Berrang-Ford; Alexandra Lesnikowski; A. Paige Fischer; A.R. Siders; Katharine J. Mach; Adelle Thomas; Max Callaghan; Neal Haddaway; Rachel Bezner Kerr; Robbert Biesbroek; Kathryn Bowen; Delphine Deryng; Susan Elliott; James D. Ford; Matthias Garschagen; Elisabeth Gilmore; Sherliee Harper; Marjolijn Hassnoot; Tabea Lissner; Shuaib Lwasa; Alexandre K. Magnan; Jan Minx; Mike Morecroft; Mark New; Erin Coughlan de Perez; Diana Reckien; Nick Simpson; Chandni Singh; Lindsay Stringer; Edmond Totin; Chris Trisos; Maarten Van Aalst. 2021. "The Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative (GAMI): Part 1 – Introduction and overview of methods." , no. : 1.
We present the first systematic, global stocktake of the academic literature on human adaptation. We screen 48,316 documents and identify 1,682 articles that present empirical research documenting human efforts to reduce risk from climate change and associated hazards. Coding and synthesizing this literature highlights that the overall extent of adaptation across global regions and sectors is low. Adaptations are largely local and incremental rather than transformative. Behavioural adjustments by individuals and households are more prevalent than any other type of response, largely motivated by drought and precipitation variability. Local governments and civil society are engaging in risk reduction across all sectors and regions, particularly in response to flooding. Urban technological and infrastructural adaptations to flood risk are prevalent in Europe, while shifts in farming practices dominate reporting from Africa and Asia. Despite increasing evidence of adaptation responses, evidence that these responses are reducing risks (observed and projected) remains limited.
Lea Berrang-Ford; A.R. Siders; Alexandra Lesnikowski; Alexandra Paige Fischer; Max Callaghan; Neal Haddaway; Katharine Mach; Malcolm Araos; Mohammad Aminur Rahman Shah; Mia Wannewitz; Deepal Doshi; Timo Leiter; Custodio Matavel; Justice Issah Musah-Surugu; Gabrielle Wong-Parodi; Philip Antwi-Agyei; Idowu Ajibade; Neha Chauhan; William Kakenmaster; Caitlin Grady; Vasiliki I. Chalastani; Kripa Jagannathan; Eranga Galappaththi; Asha Sitati; Giulia Scarpa; Edmond Totin; Katy Davis; Nikita Charles Hamilton; Christine Kirchhoff; Praveen Kumar; Brian Pentz; Nicholas Simpson; Emily Theokritoff; Delphine Deryng; Diana Reckien; Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo; Nicola Ulibarri; Alcade Segnon; Vhalinavho Khavhagali; Yuanyuan Shang; Luckson Zvobgo; Zinta Zommers; Jiren Xu; Portia Adade Williams; Ivan Villaverde Canosa; Nicole van Maanen; Bianca van Bavel; Maarten van Aalst; Lynée L. Turek-Hankins; Hasti Trivedi; Christopher Trisos; Adelle Thomas; Shinny Thakur; Sienna Templeman; Lindsay C. Stringer; Garry Sotnik; Kathryn Dana Sjostrom; Chandni Singh; Mariella Z Siña; Roopam Shukla; Jordi Sardans; Eunice A Salubi; Lolita Shaila Safaee Chalkasra; Raquel Ruiz-Díaz; Carys Richards; Pratik Pokharel; Jan Petzold; Josep Penuelas; Julia Pelaez Avila; Julia B. Pazmino Murillo; Souha Ouni; Jennifer Niemann; Miriam Nielsen; Mark New; Patricia Nayna Schwerdtle; Gabriela Nagle Alverio; Cristina A. Mullin; Joshua Mullenite; Anuszka Mosurska; Mike Morecroft; Jan Minx; Gina Maskell; Abraham Marshall Nunbogu; Alexandre Magnan; Shuaib Lwasa; Megan Lukas-Sithole; Tabea Lissner; Oliver Lilford; Steven Koller; Matthew Jurjonas; Elphin Tom Joe; Lam T.M Huynh; Avery Hill; Rebecca Hernandez; Greeshma Hedge; Tom Hawxwell; Sherilee Harper; Alexandra Harden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Elisabeth Gilmore; Leah Gichuki; Alyssa Gatt; Matthias Garschagen; James Ford; Andrew Forbes; Aidan Farrell; Carolyn Enquist; Susan Elliott; Emily Duncan; Erin Coughlan de Perez; Shaugn Coggins; Tara Chen; Donovan Campbell; Katherine E. Browne; Kathryn Bowen; Robbert Biesbroek; Indra Bhatt; Rachel Bezner Kerr; Stephanie L Barr; Emily Baker; Stephanie E. Austin; Ingrid Arotoma-Rojas; Christa Anderson; Warda Ajaz; Tanvi Agrawal; Thelma Zulfawu Abu. Mapping evidence of human adaptation to climate change. 2021, 1 .
AMA StyleLea Berrang-Ford, A.R. Siders, Alexandra Lesnikowski, Alexandra Paige Fischer, Max Callaghan, Neal Haddaway, Katharine Mach, Malcolm Araos, Mohammad Aminur Rahman Shah, Mia Wannewitz, Deepal Doshi, Timo Leiter, Custodio Matavel, Justice Issah Musah-Surugu, Gabrielle Wong-Parodi, Philip Antwi-Agyei, Idowu Ajibade, Neha Chauhan, William Kakenmaster, Caitlin Grady, Vasiliki I. Chalastani, Kripa Jagannathan, Eranga Galappaththi, Asha Sitati, Giulia Scarpa, Edmond Totin, Katy Davis, Nikita Charles Hamilton, Christine Kirchhoff, Praveen Kumar, Brian Pentz, Nicholas Simpson, Emily Theokritoff, Delphine Deryng, Diana Reckien, Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo, Nicola Ulibarri, Alcade Segnon, Vhalinavho Khavhagali, Yuanyuan Shang, Luckson Zvobgo, Zinta Zommers, Jiren Xu, Portia Adade Williams, Ivan Villaverde Canosa, Nicole van Maanen, Bianca van Bavel, Maarten van Aalst, Lynée L. Turek-Hankins, Hasti Trivedi, Christopher Trisos, Adelle Thomas, Shinny Thakur, Sienna Templeman, Lindsay C. Stringer, Garry Sotnik, Kathryn Dana Sjostrom, Chandni Singh, Mariella Z Siña, Roopam Shukla, Jordi Sardans, Eunice A Salubi, Lolita Shaila Safaee Chalkasra, Raquel Ruiz-Díaz, Carys Richards, Pratik Pokharel, Jan Petzold, Josep Penuelas, Julia Pelaez Avila, Julia B. Pazmino Murillo, Souha Ouni, Jennifer Niemann, Miriam Nielsen, Mark New, Patricia Nayna Schwerdtle, Gabriela Nagle Alverio, Cristina A. Mullin, Joshua Mullenite, Anuszka Mosurska, Mike Morecroft, Jan Minx, Gina Maskell, Abraham Marshall Nunbogu, Alexandre Magnan, Shuaib Lwasa, Megan Lukas-Sithole, Tabea Lissner, Oliver Lilford, Steven Koller, Matthew Jurjonas, Elphin Tom Joe, Lam T.M Huynh, Avery Hill, Rebecca Hernandez, Greeshma Hedge, Tom Hawxwell, Sherilee Harper, Alexandra Harden, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Elisabeth Gilmore, Leah Gichuki, Alyssa Gatt, Matthias Garschagen, James Ford, Andrew Forbes, Aidan Farrell, Carolyn Enquist, Susan Elliott, Emily Duncan, Erin Coughlan de Perez, Shaugn Coggins, Tara Chen, Donovan Campbell, Katherine E. Browne, Kathryn Bowen, Robbert Biesbroek, Indra Bhatt, Rachel Bezner Kerr, Stephanie L Barr, Emily Baker, Stephanie E. Austin, Ingrid Arotoma-Rojas, Christa Anderson, Warda Ajaz, Tanvi Agrawal, Thelma Zulfawu Abu. Mapping evidence of human adaptation to climate change. . 2021; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLea Berrang-Ford; A.R. Siders; Alexandra Lesnikowski; Alexandra Paige Fischer; Max Callaghan; Neal Haddaway; Katharine Mach; Malcolm Araos; Mohammad Aminur Rahman Shah; Mia Wannewitz; Deepal Doshi; Timo Leiter; Custodio Matavel; Justice Issah Musah-Surugu; Gabrielle Wong-Parodi; Philip Antwi-Agyei; Idowu Ajibade; Neha Chauhan; William Kakenmaster; Caitlin Grady; Vasiliki I. Chalastani; Kripa Jagannathan; Eranga Galappaththi; Asha Sitati; Giulia Scarpa; Edmond Totin; Katy Davis; Nikita Charles Hamilton; Christine Kirchhoff; Praveen Kumar; Brian Pentz; Nicholas Simpson; Emily Theokritoff; Delphine Deryng; Diana Reckien; Carol Zavaleta-Cortijo; Nicola Ulibarri; Alcade Segnon; Vhalinavho Khavhagali; Yuanyuan Shang; Luckson Zvobgo; Zinta Zommers; Jiren Xu; Portia Adade Williams; Ivan Villaverde Canosa; Nicole van Maanen; Bianca van Bavel; Maarten van Aalst; Lynée L. Turek-Hankins; Hasti Trivedi; Christopher Trisos; Adelle Thomas; Shinny Thakur; Sienna Templeman; Lindsay C. Stringer; Garry Sotnik; Kathryn Dana Sjostrom; Chandni Singh; Mariella Z Siña; Roopam Shukla; Jordi Sardans; Eunice A Salubi; Lolita Shaila Safaee Chalkasra; Raquel Ruiz-Díaz; Carys Richards; Pratik Pokharel; Jan Petzold; Josep Penuelas; Julia Pelaez Avila; Julia B. Pazmino Murillo; Souha Ouni; Jennifer Niemann; Miriam Nielsen; Mark New; Patricia Nayna Schwerdtle; Gabriela Nagle Alverio; Cristina A. Mullin; Joshua Mullenite; Anuszka Mosurska; Mike Morecroft; Jan Minx; Gina Maskell; Abraham Marshall Nunbogu; Alexandre Magnan; Shuaib Lwasa; Megan Lukas-Sithole; Tabea Lissner; Oliver Lilford; Steven Koller; Matthew Jurjonas; Elphin Tom Joe; Lam T.M Huynh; Avery Hill; Rebecca Hernandez; Greeshma Hedge; Tom Hawxwell; Sherilee Harper; Alexandra Harden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Elisabeth Gilmore; Leah Gichuki; Alyssa Gatt; Matthias Garschagen; James Ford; Andrew Forbes; Aidan Farrell; Carolyn Enquist; Susan Elliott; Emily Duncan; Erin Coughlan de Perez; Shaugn Coggins; Tara Chen; Donovan Campbell; Katherine E. Browne; Kathryn Bowen; Robbert Biesbroek; Indra Bhatt; Rachel Bezner Kerr; Stephanie L Barr; Emily Baker; Stephanie E. Austin; Ingrid Arotoma-Rojas; Christa Anderson; Warda Ajaz; Tanvi Agrawal; Thelma Zulfawu Abu. 2021. "Mapping evidence of human adaptation to climate change." , no. : 1.
The need for explicitly considering equity in adaptation planning is increasingly being recognized. However, quantitative evaluations of adaptation options often adopt an aggregated perspective, while disaggregation of results is important to learn about who benefits when and where. A typical example is adaptation of rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. In the past two decades, efforts focused on flood protection have mainly benefitted large-scale farmers while harming small-scale farmers. To investigate the distributional consequences of adaptation policies in the Vietnam Mekong Delta, we assess both aggregate efficiency and equity indicators, as well as disaggregated impacts in terms of district-level farmers profitability. Doing so requires an adequate representation of the co-evolutionary dynamics between the human and environmental systems which influence farmers profitability. We develop a spatially-explicit integrated assessment model that couples inundation and sedimentation dynamics, soil fertility and nutrient dynamics, and behavioral land-use change and farmers profitability calculation. We find that inter-district inequality responds in a non-linear way to climatic and socio-economic changes and choices of adaptation policies. Distinctive inequality patterns emerge from even slightly different combinations of policies and realizations of uncertain futures. We also find that there is no simple ranking of alternative adaptation policies, so one should make trade-offs based on the agreed preferences. Accounting for equity implies exploring the distribution of outcomes over different actor groups over a range of uncertain futures. Only by accounting for multisectoral dynamics can planners anticipate the equity consequences of adaptation options and prepare additional measures to aid the worse-off actors.
Bramka Arga Jafino; Jan Kwakkel; Frans Klijn; Nguyen Viet Dung; Hedwig Van Delden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleBramka Arga Jafino, Jan Kwakkel, Frans Klijn, Nguyen Viet Dung, Hedwig Van Delden, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBramka Arga Jafino; Jan Kwakkel; Frans Klijn; Nguyen Viet Dung; Hedwig Van Delden; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Edwin H. Sutanudjaja. 2020. "Accounting for multisectoral dynamics in supporting equitable adaptation planning: A case study on the rice agriculture in the Vietnam Mekong Delta." , no. : 1.
In the past decade, many different projections of global and regional sea-level rise as a result of climate change have been published (Garner et al, 2018, Horton et al, 2018). This wide range of projections illustrates the large uncertainty about future sea-level rise, which is complicated for coastal decision makers relying on these projections. Here, we aim to provide insights into the available projections, by identifying the main contributing sources in each of the sea-level projections, and sorting the projections into ‘families’ that have contributing sources or methodologies in common. Using these ‘families’, we discuss the main differences between projections in terms of rates and timing of certain levels of sea-level rise.
Sea-level rise projections are often compared by showing amounts or rates at a certain future point in time, e.g., 2050 or 2100. For many areas, a sea-level rise exceeding 1 to 2 m will require truly transformative decisions. Such decisions have a long lead time (in the order of 30 years) for planning and implementation. Showing the timing of a particular rate or magnitude of sea-level rise may provide insight that it is not a matter of if and how to adapt, but when to adapt. This may help decision makers in dealing with the uncertainties and it may accelerate adaptation.
We find that a sea-level rise of 25 cm (since 2000) is first reached for each of the RCP scenarios (the 95th percentile) within a decade of each other. This indicates that for a structure with a lifetime based on a sea-level rise of 25 cm, decisions are not conditional on the RCP scenario. The latest year for crossing the 25 cm threshold (the 5th percentile), however, does depend more on the RCP scenario: for the RCP2.6 scenario this is later than for the RCP8.5 scenario, because the acceleration is less strong. As the levels examined grow (0.25 m, 0.5 m, 0.75 m, etc.), the initial year of reaching that level starts to diverge more between the scenarios, and therefore the timing of decision points starts to be more and more conditional upon RCP scenario. However, for investments with a long envisioned lifetime such as coastal infrastructure, certain amounts of sea level rise may still be within the lifetime independent of the RCP scenario.
Aimée Slangen; Marjolijn Haasnoot. Timing of rates and magnitude of sea-level rise projection families. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleAimée Slangen, Marjolijn Haasnoot. Timing of rates and magnitude of sea-level rise projection families. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleAimée Slangen; Marjolijn Haasnoot. 2020. "Timing of rates and magnitude of sea-level rise projection families." , no. : 1.
The concept of tipping points has received much attention in research on climate change. In the biophysical realm, climate tipping points describe critical thresholds at which large-scale elements of the Earth switch to a qualitatively different state; and ecological tipping points describe thresholds separating distinct dynamic regimes of ecosystems. The tipping point metaphor is also used to indicate transformative change in adaptation and mitigation strategies. However, there remains an underexplored field: climate change induced socio-economic tipping points (SETPs). We define an SETP as: a climate change induced, abrupt change of a socio-economic system, into a new, fundamentally different state. We make a distinction between SETPs in terms of transformational response to climate change and SETPs in terms of socio-economic impacts.
SETPs are points where a gradual change in climatic conditions causes an abrupt, fundamental reconfiguration of the socio-economic system. Through a stakeholder consultation, we identified 22 candidate SETP examples with policy relevance for Europe. Three of these were investigated in more detail, with special attention for their tipping point characteristics (stable states at both sides of a critical threshold, abrupt transition between those states, and the mechanism explaining the non-linear and abrupt behaviour).
The first example is the collapse of winter sports tourism in low-altitude ski resorts. In the face of climate change, this may occur abrupt, cause a fundamental reconfiguration of the local and regional economy, and is very hard to reverse. In some cases, it could be possible to achieve a fundamental shift towards summer tourism.
The second example is the farmland abandonment in Southern Europe. Large parts of Spain have already seen widespread farmland abandonment and associated migration. Increasing heat and drought may worsen the conditions, with considerable social, and to a lesser extent, economic consequences. On the local scale, this manifests itself as a clear SETP: a lively agricultural area suddenly tips to the ‘Spanish Lapland’: deserted farms, villages with ageing population, little economic activity and underdeveloped infrastructure and facilities.
The third example is sea-level rise induced reconfiguration of coastal zones. In the face of accelerating sea level rise (SLR), threatened communities may retreat from vulnerable coastal zones. This may be caused by migration (voluntary human mobility), displacement (involuntary movement following a disaster) or relocation (retreat managed by the government). The SETP of retreat from a certain area is usually triggered by a flood event. However, also the adaptation to increasing flood risk may be so transformative, that it can be considered a structural configuration of the system. This is currently seen in The Netherlands, where studies on extreme SLR have triggered a debate in which very transformative strategies are proposed, such as: constructing a dike in front of the entire coast, retreat from areas with economic stagnation and population decline, or elevating all new buildings above sea level.
A key insight is that the rate of climate change may exceed the capacity of society to adapt in the traditional way, triggering a shift towards fundamentally different policies and a reconfiguration of the socio-economic system.
Kees Van Ginkel; Wouter Botzen; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Gabriel Bachner; Karl Steininger; Jochen Hinkel; Paul Watkiss; Esther Boere; Ad Jeuken; Elisa Sainz De Murieta; Francesco Bosello. Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleKees Van Ginkel, Wouter Botzen, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Gabriel Bachner, Karl Steininger, Jochen Hinkel, Paul Watkiss, Esther Boere, Ad Jeuken, Elisa Sainz De Murieta, Francesco Bosello. Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKees Van Ginkel; Wouter Botzen; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Gabriel Bachner; Karl Steininger; Jochen Hinkel; Paul Watkiss; Esther Boere; Ad Jeuken; Elisa Sainz De Murieta; Francesco Bosello. 2020. "Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points." , no. : 1.
Sea level rise is one of the most indisputable effects of global warming with important consequences for current decisions concerning mitigation and adaptation. A few evolutions in the climate and decision making fields have recently increased the concerns of sea level information users about the potential impacts of future sea level. We identify four main evolutions:
- Most countries are not on track to reach their Paris agreement emission pledges, making the goal of staying well bellow 2ºC less and less attainable.
- New climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) have both a higher average climate sensitivity and a larger spread between models compared to CMIP5.
- The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are melting faster than expected in previous IPCC reports and future projections from a recent structured expert judgment show larger expected melt and more uncertainty than both current numerical models and a previous expert judgment.
- Decision makers are more and more interested in events with a large impact and a small probability to build robust infrastructure and design robust long term strategies concerning relocation of coastal communities.
While these four evolutions are fundamentally deeply uncertain, to explore their combined effect we build a subjective probabilistic framework that allows to propagate the uncertainty through the different components and obtain sea level rise projections. In this presentation we present this framework, the results and their sensitivity to multiple hypothesis and we discuss implications for different uses and users of sea level rise information.
Dewi Le Bars; Sybren Drijfhout; Marjolijn Haasnoot. The future of sea level: More knowledge, more uncertainty. 2020, 1 .
AMA StyleDewi Le Bars, Sybren Drijfhout, Marjolijn Haasnoot. The future of sea level: More knowledge, more uncertainty. . 2020; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleDewi Le Bars; Sybren Drijfhout; Marjolijn Haasnoot. 2020. "The future of sea level: More knowledge, more uncertainty." , no. : 1.
Decision makers need better insights about solutions to accelerate adaptation efforts. Defining the concept of solution space and revealing the forces and strategies that influence this space will enable decision makers to define pathways for adaptation action.
Marjolijn Haasnoot; Robbert Biesbroek; Judy Lawrence; Veruska Muccione; Robert Lempert; Bruce Glavovic. Defining the solution space to accelerate climate change adaptation. Regional Environmental Change 2020, 20, 1 -5.
AMA StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot, Robbert Biesbroek, Judy Lawrence, Veruska Muccione, Robert Lempert, Bruce Glavovic. Defining the solution space to accelerate climate change adaptation. Regional Environmental Change. 2020; 20 (2):1-5.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot; Robbert Biesbroek; Judy Lawrence; Veruska Muccione; Robert Lempert; Bruce Glavovic. 2020. "Defining the solution space to accelerate climate change adaptation." Regional Environmental Change 20, no. 2: 1-5.
Marjolijn Haasnoot; Jaap Kwadijk; Jos Van Alphen; Dewi Le Bars; Bart Van Den Hurk; Ferdinand Diermanse; Ad Van Der Spek; Gualbert Oude Essink; Joost Delsman; Marjolein Mens. Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands. Environmental Research Letters 2020, 15, 034007 .
AMA StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot, Jaap Kwadijk, Jos Van Alphen, Dewi Le Bars, Bart Van Den Hurk, Ferdinand Diermanse, Ad Van Der Spek, Gualbert Oude Essink, Joost Delsman, Marjolein Mens. Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands. Environmental Research Letters. 2020; 15 (3):034007.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot; Jaap Kwadijk; Jos Van Alphen; Dewi Le Bars; Bart Van Den Hurk; Ferdinand Diermanse; Ad Van Der Spek; Gualbert Oude Essink; Joost Delsman; Marjolein Mens. 2020. "Adaptation to uncertain sea-level rise; how uncertainty in Antarctic mass-loss impacts the coastal adaptation strategy of the Netherlands." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 3: 034007.
Kees C H Van Ginkel; Willem Jan Wouter Botzen; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Gabriel Bachner; Karl W Steininger; Jochen Hinkel; Paul Watkiss; Esther Boere; Ad Jeuken; Elisa Sainz De Murieta; Francesco Bosello. Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research. Environmental Research Letters 2020, 15, 023001 .
AMA StyleKees C H Van Ginkel, Willem Jan Wouter Botzen, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Gabriel Bachner, Karl W Steininger, Jochen Hinkel, Paul Watkiss, Esther Boere, Ad Jeuken, Elisa Sainz De Murieta, Francesco Bosello. Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research. Environmental Research Letters. 2020; 15 (2):023001.
Chicago/Turabian StyleKees C H Van Ginkel; Willem Jan Wouter Botzen; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Gabriel Bachner; Karl W Steininger; Jochen Hinkel; Paul Watkiss; Esther Boere; Ad Jeuken; Elisa Sainz De Murieta; Francesco Bosello. 2020. "Climate change induced socio-economic tipping points: review and stakeholder consultation for policy relevant research." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 2: 023001.
Adaptation to coastal flood risk is hampered by high uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise. Subsequently, adaptation decisions carry strong risks of under- or over-investment, and could lead to costly retrofitting or unnecessary high margins. To better allocate resources timely and effectively, and achieve long-term sustainability, planners could utilise adaptation pathways, revealing the path-dependencies of adaptation options. This helps to identify low-regret short-term decisions that preserve options in an uncertain future, while monitoring to detect signals to adapt. A major barrier to the application of adaptation pathways is limited experience. To facilitate this, here we generalize this pathways approach for six common coastal archetypes, resulting in generic pathways suitable to be adjusted to local conditions. This provides a much richer analysis of coastal adaptation than provided by any previous analysis, by assessing the solution space and options over time for a variety of coastal regions. Based on this analysis, we find that the number of adaptation options declines while sea-level rises. For some archetypes, it becomes clear that long-term thinking is needed now, about if, how and when to move to transformative options, such as planned retreat, which may presently not be considered or acceptable. Our analysis further shows that coastal adaptation needs to start earlier than anticipated, especially given time required for local debate and choice and to implement measures.
Marjolijn Haasnoot; Sally Brown; Paolo Scussolini; Jose A Jimenez; Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis; Robert J Nicholls. Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under uncertain sea-level rise. Environmental Research Communications 2019, 1, 071006 .
AMA StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot, Sally Brown, Paolo Scussolini, Jose A Jimenez, Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis, Robert J Nicholls. Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under uncertain sea-level rise. Environmental Research Communications. 2019; 1 (7):071006.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot; Sally Brown; Paolo Scussolini; Jose A Jimenez; Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis; Robert J Nicholls. 2019. "Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under uncertain sea-level rise." Environmental Research Communications 1, no. 7: 071006.
Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) is a DMDU approach that explicitly includes decision making over time. The essence is proactive and dynamic planning in response to how the future actually unfolds. DAPP explores alternative sequences of decisions (adaptation pathways) for multiple futures and illuminates the path dependency of alternative strategies. It opens the decision space and helps to overcome policy paralysis due to deep uncertainty. There are different routes that can achieve the objectives under changing conditions (like ‘different roads leading to Rome’). Policy actions have an uncertain design life and might fail sooner or later to continue achieving objectives as the operating conditions change (i.e. they reach an adaptation tipping point (ATP)). Similarly, opportunity tipping points may occur. Multiple pathways are typically visualized in a metro map or decision tree, with time or changing conditions on one of the axes. DAPP supports the design of a dynamic adaptive strategy that includes initial actions, long-term options, and adaptation signals to identify when to implement the long-term options or revisit decisions.
Marjolijn Haasnoot; Andrew Warren; Jan H. Kwakkel. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty 2019, 71 -92.
AMA StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot, Andrew Warren, Jan H. Kwakkel. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty. 2019; ():71-92.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot; Andrew Warren; Jan H. Kwakkel. 2019. "Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP)." Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty , no. : 71-92.
Investment decisions about capital-intensive, long-lived infrastructure are challenging due to uncertainty about their future performance, particularly if the performance is sensitive to climate change. Such investments, like those made for water infrastructure, are rarely evaluated over their total operational lifetime, during which socio-economic and environmental changes can cause potential lock-ins and reduced options for future choices that lead to high costs to transfer to other options. We propose an economic evaluation framework to explore adaptation pathways, or sequences of strategic investments options, that can be implemented if needed due to changing conditions. A novel feature is the inclusion of “transfer costs” associated with a switch to alternative pathways to allow adaptive decision-making and to minimize the cost of adjustment over time. Implementing a pathway-driven approach represents a break with most institutional decision-making processes and can significantly improve decision-making under uncertainty compared to the conventional single-investment perspective. We present a case study on flood risk management in the Netherlands to show the long-term socio-economic consequences of short-term decisions by going beyond the project cycle horizon.
Marjolijn Haasnoot; Maaike Van Aalst; Julie Rozenberg; Kathleen Dominique; John Matthews; Laurens M. Bouwer; Jarl Kind; N LeRoy Poff. Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways. Climatic Change 2019, 161, 451 -463.
AMA StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot, Maaike Van Aalst, Julie Rozenberg, Kathleen Dominique, John Matthews, Laurens M. Bouwer, Jarl Kind, N LeRoy Poff. Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways. Climatic Change. 2019; 161 (3):451-463.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot; Maaike Van Aalst; Julie Rozenberg; Kathleen Dominique; John Matthews; Laurens M. Bouwer; Jarl Kind; N LeRoy Poff. 2019. "Investments under non-stationarity: economic evaluation of adaptation pathways." Climatic Change 161, no. 3: 451-463.
Adaptive plans aim to anticipate uncertain future changes by combining low-regret short-term actions with long-term options to adapt, if necessary. Monitoring and timely detection of relevant changes, and critical transitions or tipping points is crucial to ensure successful and timely implementation and reassessment of the plan. Although efforts have been made to identify signposts to monitor, the question remains how to design a signal monitoring system that detects and anticipates (future) change to support adaptive planning. For example, to support water related infrastructure investments under uncertain climate change. What are good signposts to monitor and how to wisely analyse them to get timely and reliable signals for adaptation? In this paper, we present a framework for designing and using a monitoring plan as part of the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP) approach for decision making under uncertainty. We use the following criteria to evaluate signposts and their critical signal values: measurability, timeliness, reliability, convincibility and institutional connectivity. We illustrate the approach based on the signal monitoring system for the adaptive plan developed by the Delta Programme in the Netherlands.
Marjolijn Haasnoot; Susan Van ’T Klooster; Jos van Alphen. Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change. Global Environmental Change 2018, 52, 273 -285.
AMA StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot, Susan Van ’T Klooster, Jos van Alphen. Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change. Global Environmental Change. 2018; 52 ():273-285.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMarjolijn Haasnoot; Susan Van ’T Klooster; Jos van Alphen. 2018. "Designing a monitoring system to detect signals to adapt to uncertain climate change." Global Environmental Change 52, no. : 273-285.
Adaptation pathways approaches support long-term planning under uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways implies a systematic monitoring effort to inform future adaptation decisions. Such monitoring should feed into a long-term collaborative learning process between multiple actors at various levels. This raises questions about who should monitor what, when and for whom. We formulate an approach that helps to address these questions, developed around the conceptual core offered by adaptive policy pathways methods and their notion of signposts and triggers. This is embedded in a wider approach that revisits the critical assumptions in underlying basic policies, looks forward to future adaptation decisions, and incorporates reciprocity in the organization of monitoring and evaluation. The usefulness and practical feasibility of the approach is studied for a case of the Delta Programme in the Netherlands, which incorporated adaptation pathways in its planning approach called adaptive delta management. The case results suggest that our approach adds value to existing monitoring practices. They further show that different types of signposts exist. Technical signposts, in particular, need to be distinguished from political ones, and require different learning processes with different types of actors.
Leon M. Hermans; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Judith ter Maat; Jan Kwakkel. Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways. Environmental Science & Policy 2017, 69, 29 -38.
AMA StyleLeon M. Hermans, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Judith ter Maat, Jan Kwakkel. Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways. Environmental Science & Policy. 2017; 69 ():29-38.
Chicago/Turabian StyleLeon M. Hermans; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Judith ter Maat; Jan Kwakkel. 2017. "Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways." Environmental Science & Policy 69, no. : 29-38.
A variety of model-based approaches for supporting decision-making under deep uncertainty have been suggested, but they are rarely compared and contrasted. In this paper, we compare Robust Decision-Making with Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways. We apply both to a hypothetical case inspired by a river reach in the Rhine Delta of the Netherlands, and compare them with respect to the required tooling, the resulting decision relevant insights, and the resulting plans. The results indicate that the two approaches are complementary. Robust Decision-Making offers insights into conditions under which problems occur, and makes trade-offs transparent. The Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach emphasizes dynamic adaptation over time, and thus offers a natural way for handling the vulnerabilities identified through Robust Decision-Making. The application also makes clear that the analytical process of Robust Decision-Making is path-dependent and open ended: an analyst has to make many choices, for which Robust Decision-Making offers no direct guidance. This paper compares Robust Decision-Making (RDM) and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP).RDM and DAPP have different merits, which highlight their complementarity.RDM has a clear analytical process and the application is reasonably straight forward.DAPP offers a convenient framework for designing plans for dynamic adaptation over time.
Jan H. Kwakkel; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Warren E. Walker. Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty. Environmental Modelling & Software 2016, 86, 168 -183.
AMA StyleJan H. Kwakkel, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Warren E. Walker. Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty. Environmental Modelling & Software. 2016; 86 ():168-183.
Chicago/Turabian StyleJan H. Kwakkel; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Warren E. Walker. 2016. "Comparing Robust Decision-Making and Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways for model-based decision support under deep uncertainty." Environmental Modelling & Software 86, no. : 168-183.
Cities are vulnerable to flooding and historical events, for instance Hurricane Sandy in 2012, have showed that losses in the cities are costly. In the context of climate change and socio-economic development, future flood risk will inevitably rise; adaptive measures, for instance upgrading of sea dikes and floodwalls, improving drainage systems and implementing green infrastructures, are proposed under the changing environment in the cities. A question of when to implement what measures in the cities over time is then brought up. The approach of dynamic adaptive policy pathways is applied to formulate adaptation pathways for a case study of Shanghai to explore the optimal investment strategy in context of deep uncertainties. Adaptation concept is not only aiming to achieve optimal strategy but also to determine when to implement the measures. The adaptation pathways for three types of floods (coastal flood, river flood and pluvial flood) in Shanghai were formulated through a preliminary qualitative analysis. This could provide an insight to the long-term feasibility of adaptive flood risk strategies. This research could provide a rational indication for policy/decision makers on future adaptation strategy at the city scale.
Qian Ke; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Marco Hoogvliet. Exploring adaptation pathways in terms of flood risk management at a city scale – a case study for Shanghai city. E3S Web of Conferences 2016, 7, 21002 .
AMA StyleQian Ke, Marjolijn Haasnoot, Marco Hoogvliet. Exploring adaptation pathways in terms of flood risk management at a city scale – a case study for Shanghai city. E3S Web of Conferences. 2016; 7 ():21002.
Chicago/Turabian StyleQian Ke; Marjolijn Haasnoot; Marco Hoogvliet. 2016. "Exploring adaptation pathways in terms of flood risk management at a city scale – a case study for Shanghai city." E3S Web of Conferences 7, no. : 21002.