Toni Toharudin

Prof. Toni Toharudin

Department of Statistics, Padjadjaran University, Jawa Barat 45363, Indonesia
orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

20Years (2007-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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6 April 2023 in IEEE Access
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
Toni ToharudinToni Toharudin
Toni Toharudin
Rezzy Eko CarakaRezzy Eko Caraka
Rezzy Eko Caraka
IPIndah Reski Pratiwi
Indah Reski Pratiwi
YKYunho Kim
Yunho Kim
PGPrana Ugiana Gio
Prana Ugiana Gio
Bens PardameanBens Pardamean
Bens Pardamean
Air quality conditions are now more severe in the Jakarta area that is among the world’s top eight worst cities according to the 2022 Air Quality Index (AQI) report. In particular, the data from the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) of the Republic of Indonesia, the latest outcomes in air quality conditions in Jakarta and surrounding areas, says that PM2.5 concentrations have increased and peaked at 148μ g/m3 in 2022. While a classification system for this pollution is necessary and critical, the observation of PM2.5 concentrations measured through the BMKG Kemayoran station, Jakarta, turns out to be identified as an unbalanced data class. Thus, in this work, we perform boosting algorithm supervised learning to handle such an unbalanced classification toward PM2.5 concentration levels by observing meteorological patterns in Jakarta during 1 January 2015 to 7 July 2022. The boosting algorithms considered in this research include Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM). Our simulations have proven that boosting classification can significantly reduce bias in combination with variance reduction with unbalanced within-class coefficients, with the classification of PM2.5 class values: good 62%, moderate 34%, and unhealthy 59%, respectively.

4 January 2022 in Sustainability
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
Rezzy Eko CarakaRezzy Eko Caraka
Rezzy Eko Caraka
Maengseok NohMaengseok Noh
Maengseok Noh
YLYoungjo Lee
Youngjo Lee
Toni ToharudinToni Toharudin
Toni Toharudin
Yusra YusraYusra Yusra
Yusra Yusra
Bens PardameanBens Pardamean
Bens Pardamean
Background: In this paper, we examine how social media influencers can influence visit intention, especially in the case of Raffi Ahmad and Nagita Slavina, a top influencer who by 2 September 2021 had reached 21.3 M subscribers on YouTube and 54.9 m followers on Instagram with an engagement rate of 0.42%. The focus of this study is Generation Y or Millennials (born 1981–1996) and Generation Z (born 1997–2012). Design/methodology/approach: Snowball sampling was performed to arrive at a representative group of Millennials. Data analysis was performed using hierarchical likelihood via structural equation modeling. Findings: The study results are helpful for a comprehensive understanding of factors affecting visit intention. Effects of the study results summary, tourists from Generations Y and Z are thriving within the internet of things and the digital age, an era in which information can be accessed via various forms of technology across multiple platforms. Practical implications: We discuss and identify the relative importance of each factor through the use of logistics with variational approximation and structural equation models using hierarchical likelihood. Originality: The technique we use is an integrated and extended version of the structural equation model with hierarchical likelihood estimation and features selection using logistics variational approximation.

21 February 2024 in IEEE Access
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
TPTafia Hasna Putri
Tafia Hasna Putri
RCRezzy Eko Caraka
Rezzy Eko Caraka
Toni ToharudinToni Toharudin
Toni Toharudin
YKYunho Kim
Yunho Kim
Rung-Ching ChenRung-Ching Chen
Rung-Ching Chen
Bens PardameanBens Pardamean
Bens Pardamean
Particulate matter forecasting is fundamental for early warning and controlling air pollution, especially PM 2.5 . The increase in this level of concentration will lead to a negative impact on public health. This study develops a hybrid model of CNN-LSTM and CONV-LSTM by combining a convolutional neural network (CNN) with an LSTM network to forecast PM 2.5 concentration for the next few hours in Kemayoran DKI Jakarta, which is known as a busy area. We discovered the advantages of CNN in effectively extracting features and LSTM in learning long-term historical data from PM 2.5 concentration time series data. The predictive model of CNN-LSTM is carried out in a different architecture where the CNN process is carried out first to become the input of LSTM. For CONV-LSTM, it is carried out in one architecture where the multiplication in the LSTM architecture is coupled with the convolution process. This research will explain how the method of developing hybrid CNN-LSTM and CONV-LSTM in predicting PM 2.5 concentrations. Based on metric evaluation, the two models are compared to find the best model. Both predictive models produce MAPE values that fall into the good enough category with values <20%. Results were obtained for CONV-LSTM with MAE worth 6.52, RMSE 8.55, and MAPE 16.39%. As a result, the CONV-LSTM model performs better than CNN-LSTM in nowcasting PM 2.5 .

24 July 2021 in Sustainability
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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Toni ToharudinToni Toharudin
Toni Toharudin
RPResa Pontoh
Resa Pontoh
Rezzy Eko CarakaRezzy Eko Caraka
Rezzy Eko Caraka
SZSolichatus Zahroh
Solichatus Zahroh
PKPanji Kendogo
Panji Kendogo
Bens PardameanBens Pardamean
Bens Pardamean
COVID-19, as a global pandemic, has spread across Indonesia. Jakarta, as the capital of Indonesia, is the province with the most positive cases. The government has issued various guidelines, both at the central and regional levels. Since it began in 2021, the planned new measures, called ‘Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat Darurat’, or PPKM emergency public activity restrictions, began with the possibility that the number of active cases might decrease. Accordingly, global vaccinations were also carried out, as they were in Indonesia. However, the first phase prioritized frontline health workers and high-risk elderly people. This study conducted a causal impact analysis to determine the effectiveness of PPKM in Jakarta and its vaccination program against the increase in daily new cases. Based on this test, PPKM showed a significant effect on the addition of daily new cases and recovered cases. Conversely, the vaccination program only had a significant impact on recovered cases. A forecast of the COVID-19 cases was conducted and indicated that the daily new cases showed a negative trend, although it fluctuated for the next 7 days, while death and recovered cases continued to increase. Hence, it can be said that the vaccination program has still not shown its effectiveness in decreasing the number of daily new cases while PPKM is quite effective in suppressing new cases.

25 May 2021 in Sustainability
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
Rezzy Eko CarakaRezzy Eko Caraka
Rezzy Eko Caraka
Yusra YusraYusra Yusra
Yusra Yusra
Toni ToharudinToni Toharudin
Toni Toharudin
Rung-Ching ChenRung-Ching Chen
Rung-Ching Chen
Mohammad BasyuniMohammad Basyuni
Mohammad Basyuni
Bens PardameanBens Pardamean
Bens Pardamean
Background and objectives: The impacts of COVID-19 are like two sides of one coin. During 2020, there were many research papers that proved our environmental and climate conditions were improving due to lockdown or large-scale restriction regulations. In contrast, the economic conditions deteriorated due to disruption in industry business activities and most people stayed at home and worked from home, which probably reduced the noise pollution. Methods: To assess whether there were differences in noise pollution before and during COVID-19. In this paper, we use various statistical methods following odds ratios, Wilcoxon and Fisher’s tests and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with various comparisons of prior selection. The outcome of interest for a parameter in Bayesian inference is complete posterior distribution. Roughly, the mean of the posterior will be clear with point approximation. That being said, the median is an available choice. Findings: To make the Bayesian MCMC work, we ran the sampling from the conditional posterior distributions. It is straightforward to draw random samples from these distributions if they have regular shapes using MCMC. The case of over-standard noise per time frame, number of noise petition cases, number of industry petition cases, number of motorcycles, number of cars and density of vehicles are significant at α = 5%. In line with this, we prove that there were differences of noise pollution before and during COVID-19 in Taiwan. Meanwhile, the decreased noise pollution in Taiwan can improve quality of life.

7 June 2022 in Applied Sciences
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
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RPResa Pontoh
Resa Pontoh
Toni ToharudinToni Toharudin
Toni Toharudin
BRBudi Nurani Ruchjana
Budi Nurani Ruchjana
Farhat GumelarFarhat Gumelar
Farhat Gumelar
FPFariza Alamanda Putri
Fariza Alamanda Putri
Rezzy Eko CarakaRezzy Eko Caraka
Rezzy Eko Caraka
In December 2021, the latest COVID-19 variant, Omicron, was confirmed in Indonesia. Unlike the Delta variant, the number of deaths in the Omicron type did not increase significantly and remained constant, even though the cases increased significantly. It is hoped that Indonesia will declare COVID-19 endemic. Jakarta is the capital of Indonesia and the first city where the new COVID-19 virus emerged. Therefore, we are trying to model COVID-19 cases in Jakarta and predict future cases to see if endemic conditions are identified. We applied Neural Network Auto-Regressive (NNAR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) methods. It is found that the NNAR forecast better for positive confirmed cases with an R-squared 0.939 and the LSTM forecast better for cases of death with an R-squared 0.9337. The forecasting results for the next 7 days reveal that positive confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Jakarta will increase slightly. In addition, the death cases experienced a very small increase, only one new case. According to the results of this study, it can be concluded that COVID-19 in Jakarta will enter an endemic phase in Jakarta, with no substantial increase in cases and a low mortality rate.