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Statistics Department Jalan Raya Bandung Sumedang Km 21 Jatinangor - Sumedang, Indonesia
COVID-19, as a global pandemic, has spread across Indonesia. Jakarta, as the capital of Indonesia, is the province with the most positive cases. The government has issued various guidelines, both at the central and regional levels. Since it began in 2021, the planned new measures, called ‘Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat Darurat’, or PPKM emergency public activity restrictions, began with the possibility that the number of active cases might decrease. Accordingly, global vaccinations were also carried out, as they were in Indonesia. However, the first phase prioritized frontline health workers and high-risk elderly people. This study conducted a causal impact analysis to determine the effectiveness of PPKM in Jakarta and its vaccination program against the increase in daily new cases. Based on this test, PPKM showed a significant effect on the addition of daily new cases and recovered cases. Conversely, the vaccination program only had a significant impact on recovered cases. A forecast of the COVID-19 cases was conducted and indicated that the daily new cases showed a negative trend, although it fluctuated for the next 7 days, while death and recovered cases continued to increase. Hence, it can be said that the vaccination program has still not shown its effectiveness in decreasing the number of daily new cases while PPKM is quite effective in suppressing new cases.
Toni Toharudin; Resa Pontoh; Rezzy Caraka; Solichatus Zahroh; Panji Kendogo; Novika Sijabat; Mentari Sari; Prana Gio; Mohammad Basyuni; Bens Pardamean. National Vaccination and Local Intervention Impacts on COVID-19 Cases. Sustainability 2021, 13, 8282 .
AMA StyleToni Toharudin, Resa Pontoh, Rezzy Caraka, Solichatus Zahroh, Panji Kendogo, Novika Sijabat, Mentari Sari, Prana Gio, Mohammad Basyuni, Bens Pardamean. National Vaccination and Local Intervention Impacts on COVID-19 Cases. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (15):8282.
Chicago/Turabian StyleToni Toharudin; Resa Pontoh; Rezzy Caraka; Solichatus Zahroh; Panji Kendogo; Novika Sijabat; Mentari Sari; Prana Gio; Mohammad Basyuni; Bens Pardamean. 2021. "National Vaccination and Local Intervention Impacts on COVID-19 Cases." Sustainability 13, no. 15: 8282.
This paper deals with symmetrical data that can be modelled based on Gaussian distribution, such as linear mixed models for longitudinal data. The latent factor linear mixed model (LFLMM) is a method generally used for analysing changes in high-dimensional longitudinal data. It is usual that the model estimates are based on the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm, but unfortunately, the algorithm does not produce the standard errors of the regression coefficients, which then hampers testing procedures. To fill in the gap, the Supplemented EM (SEM) algorithm for the case of fixed variables is proposed in this paper. The computational aspects of the SEM algorithm have been investigated by means of simulation. We also calculate the variance matrix of beta using the second moment as a benchmark to compare with the asymptotic variance matrix of beta of SEM. Both the second moment and SEM produce symmetrical results, the variance estimates of beta are getting smaller when number of subjects in the simulation increases. In addition, the practical usefulness of this work was illustrated using real data on political attitudes and behaviour in Flanders-Belgium.
Yenni Angraini; Khairil Notodiputro; Henk Folmer; Asep Saefuddin; Toni Toharudin. Estimating the Variance of Estimator of the Latent Factor Linear Mixed Model Using Supplemented Expectation-Maximization Algorithm. Symmetry 2021, 13, 1286 .
AMA StyleYenni Angraini, Khairil Notodiputro, Henk Folmer, Asep Saefuddin, Toni Toharudin. Estimating the Variance of Estimator of the Latent Factor Linear Mixed Model Using Supplemented Expectation-Maximization Algorithm. Symmetry. 2021; 13 (7):1286.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYenni Angraini; Khairil Notodiputro; Henk Folmer; Asep Saefuddin; Toni Toharudin. 2021. "Estimating the Variance of Estimator of the Latent Factor Linear Mixed Model Using Supplemented Expectation-Maximization Algorithm." Symmetry 13, no. 7: 1286.
Design: At the heart of time series forecasting, if nonlinear and nonstationary data are analyzed using traditional time series, the results will be biased. At the same time, if just using machine learning without any consideration given to input from traditional time series, not much information can be obtained from the results because the machine learning model is a black box. Purpose: In order to better study time series forecasting, we extend the combination of traditional time series and machine learning and propose a hybrid cascade neural network considering a metaheuristic optimization genetic algorithm in space–time forecasting. Finding: To further show the utility of the cascade neural network genetic algorithm, we use various scenarios for training and testing while also extending simulations by considering the activation functions SoftMax, radbas, logsig, and tribas on space–time forecasting of pollution data. During the simulation, we perform numerical metric evaluations using the root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), and symmetric mean absolute percentage error (sMAPE) to demonstrate that our models provide high accuracy and speed up time-lapse computing.
Rezzy Caraka; Hasbi Yasin; Rung-Ching Chen; Noor Goldameir; Budi Supatmanto; Toni Toharudin; Mohammad Basyuni; Prana Gio; Bens Pardamean. Evolving Hybrid Cascade Neural Network Genetic Algorithm Space–Time Forecasting. Symmetry 2021, 13, 1158 .
AMA StyleRezzy Caraka, Hasbi Yasin, Rung-Ching Chen, Noor Goldameir, Budi Supatmanto, Toni Toharudin, Mohammad Basyuni, Prana Gio, Bens Pardamean. Evolving Hybrid Cascade Neural Network Genetic Algorithm Space–Time Forecasting. Symmetry. 2021; 13 (7):1158.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRezzy Caraka; Hasbi Yasin; Rung-Ching Chen; Noor Goldameir; Budi Supatmanto; Toni Toharudin; Mohammad Basyuni; Prana Gio; Bens Pardamean. 2021. "Evolving Hybrid Cascade Neural Network Genetic Algorithm Space–Time Forecasting." Symmetry 13, no. 7: 1158.
Background and objectives: The impacts of COVID-19 are like two sides of one coin. During 2020, there were many research papers that proved our environmental and climate conditions were improving due to lockdown or large-scale restriction regulations. In contrast, the economic conditions deteriorated due to disruption in industry business activities and most people stayed at home and worked from home, which probably reduced the noise pollution. Methods: To assess whether there were differences in noise pollution before and during COVID-19. In this paper, we use various statistical methods following odds ratios, Wilcoxon and Fisher’s tests and Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) with various comparisons of prior selection. The outcome of interest for a parameter in Bayesian inference is complete posterior distribution. Roughly, the mean of the posterior will be clear with point approximation. That being said, the median is an available choice. Findings: To make the Bayesian MCMC work, we ran the sampling from the conditional posterior distributions. It is straightforward to draw random samples from these distributions if they have regular shapes using MCMC. The case of over-standard noise per time frame, number of noise petition cases, number of industry petition cases, number of motorcycles, number of cars and density of vehicles are significant at α = 5%. In line with this, we prove that there were differences of noise pollution before and during COVID-19 in Taiwan. Meanwhile, the decreased noise pollution in Taiwan can improve quality of life.
Rezzy Caraka; Yusra Yusra; Toni Toharudin; Rung-Ching Chen; Mohammad Basyuni; Vilzati Juned; Prana Gio; Bens Pardamean. Did Noise Pollution Really Improve during COVID-19? Evidence from Taiwan. Sustainability 2021, 13, 5946 .
AMA StyleRezzy Caraka, Yusra Yusra, Toni Toharudin, Rung-Ching Chen, Mohammad Basyuni, Vilzati Juned, Prana Gio, Bens Pardamean. Did Noise Pollution Really Improve during COVID-19? Evidence from Taiwan. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (11):5946.
Chicago/Turabian StyleRezzy Caraka; Yusra Yusra; Toni Toharudin; Rung-Ching Chen; Mohammad Basyuni; Vilzati Juned; Prana Gio; Bens Pardamean. 2021. "Did Noise Pollution Really Improve during COVID-19? Evidence from Taiwan." Sustainability 13, no. 11: 5946.
Factor models, structural equation models (SEMs) and random-effect models share the common feature that they assume latent or unobserved random variables. Factor models and SEMs allow well developed procedures for a rich class of covariance models with many parameters, while random-effect models allow well developed procedures for non-normal models including heavy-tailed distributions for responses and random effects. In this paper, we show how these two developments can be combined to result in an extremely rich class of models, which can be beneficial to both areas. A new fitting procedures for binary factor models and a robust estimation approach for continuous factor models are proposed.
Maengseok Noh; Youngjo Lee; Johan H.L. Oud; Toni Toharudin. Hierarchical likelihood approach to non-Gaussian factor analysis. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 2019, 89, 1555 -1573.
AMA StyleMaengseok Noh, Youngjo Lee, Johan H.L. Oud, Toni Toharudin. Hierarchical likelihood approach to non-Gaussian factor analysis. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation. 2019; 89 (9):1555-1573.
Chicago/Turabian StyleMaengseok Noh; Youngjo Lee; Johan H.L. Oud; Toni Toharudin. 2019. "Hierarchical likelihood approach to non-Gaussian factor analysis." Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation 89, no. 9: 1555-1573.
I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya; Toni Toharudin; Atje Setiawan Abdullah. A bayesian spatial autoregressive model with k-NN optimization for modeling the learning outcome of the junior high schools in West Java. Model Assisted Statistics and Applications 2018, 13, 207 -219.
AMA StyleI. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya, Toni Toharudin, Atje Setiawan Abdullah. A bayesian spatial autoregressive model with k-NN optimization for modeling the learning outcome of the junior high schools in West Java. Model Assisted Statistics and Applications. 2018; 13 (3):207-219.
Chicago/Turabian StyleI. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya; Toni Toharudin; Atje Setiawan Abdullah. 2018. "A bayesian spatial autoregressive model with k-NN optimization for modeling the learning outcome of the junior high schools in West Java." Model Assisted Statistics and Applications 13, no. 3: 207-219.
Fadhilah Fitri; Toni Toharudin; I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya. Marine capture fisheries production and intensity of rainfall: An application of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. STATISTICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Applied Statistics (ICAS II), 2016 2017, 1827, 20038 .
AMA StyleFadhilah Fitri, Toni Toharudin, I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya. Marine capture fisheries production and intensity of rainfall: An application of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model. STATISTICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Applied Statistics (ICAS II), 2016. 2017; 1827 ():20038.
Chicago/Turabian StyleFadhilah Fitri; Toni Toharudin; I. Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya. 2017. "Marine capture fisheries production and intensity of rainfall: An application of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model." STATISTICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Applied Statistics (ICAS II), 2016 1827, no. : 20038.
Octavianty; Toni Toharudin; I. G. N. Mindra Jaya. Geographically weighted poisson regression semiparametric on modeling of the number of tuberculosis cases (Case study: Bandung city). STATISTICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Applied Statistics (ICAS II), 2016 2017, 1827, 20022 .
AMA StyleOctavianty, Toni Toharudin, I. G. N. Mindra Jaya. Geographically weighted poisson regression semiparametric on modeling of the number of tuberculosis cases (Case study: Bandung city). STATISTICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Applied Statistics (ICAS II), 2016. 2017; 1827 ():20022.
Chicago/Turabian StyleOctavianty; Toni Toharudin; I. G. N. Mindra Jaya. 2017. "Geographically weighted poisson regression semiparametric on modeling of the number of tuberculosis cases (Case study: Bandung city)." STATISTICS AND ITS APPLICATIONS: Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Applied Statistics (ICAS II), 2016 1827, no. : 20022.
This article analyzes the relationships among nationalism (N), individualism (I), ethnocentrism (E), and authoritarianism (A) in continuous time (CT), estimated as a structural equation model. The analysis is based on the General Election Study for Flanders, Belgium, for 1991, 1995, and 1999. We find reciprocal effects between A and E and between E and I as well as a unidirectional effect from A on I. We furthermore find relatively small, but significant, effects from both I and E on N but no effect from A on N or from N on any of the other variables. Because of its central role in the N-I-E-A complex, mitigation of authoritarianism has the largest potential to reduce the spread of nationalism, ethnocentrism, and racism in Flanders.
Yenni Angraini; Toni Toharudin; Henk Folmer; Johan H. L. Oud. The Relationships between Individualism, Nationalism, Ethnocentrism, and Authoritarianism in Flanders: A Continuous Time-Structural Equation Modeling Approach. Multivariate Behavioral Research 2014, 49, 41 -53.
AMA StyleYenni Angraini, Toni Toharudin, Henk Folmer, Johan H. L. Oud. The Relationships between Individualism, Nationalism, Ethnocentrism, and Authoritarianism in Flanders: A Continuous Time-Structural Equation Modeling Approach. Multivariate Behavioral Research. 2014; 49 (1):41-53.
Chicago/Turabian StyleYenni Angraini; Toni Toharudin; Henk Folmer; Johan H. L. Oud. 2014. "The Relationships between Individualism, Nationalism, Ethnocentrism, and Authoritarianism in Flanders: A Continuous Time-Structural Equation Modeling Approach." Multivariate Behavioral Research 49, no. 1: 41-53.
Budi Nurani Ruchjana; Atje Setiawan Abdullah; Toni Toharudin; I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya. Clustering spatial on the GSTAR model for replacement new oil well. PADJADJARAN INTERNATIONAL PHYSICS SYMPOSIUM 2013 (PIPS-2013): Contribution of Physics on Environmental and Energy Conservations 2013, 1 .
AMA StyleBudi Nurani Ruchjana, Atje Setiawan Abdullah, Toni Toharudin, I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya. Clustering spatial on the GSTAR model for replacement new oil well. PADJADJARAN INTERNATIONAL PHYSICS SYMPOSIUM 2013 (PIPS-2013): Contribution of Physics on Environmental and Energy Conservations. 2013; ():1.
Chicago/Turabian StyleBudi Nurani Ruchjana; Atje Setiawan Abdullah; Toni Toharudin; I Gede Nyoman Mindra Jaya. 2013. "Clustering spatial on the GSTAR model for replacement new oil well." PADJADJARAN INTERNATIONAL PHYSICS SYMPOSIUM 2013 (PIPS-2013): Contribution of Physics on Environmental and Energy Conservations , no. : 1.
Authoritarianism is a form of social behavior characterized by strict obedience to the authority of a state or organization and adherence to enforcing and maintaining control through the use of oppressive measures. It refers to a complex of nine subsyndromes (Adorno, Frenkel-Brunswik, Levinson, and Sanford, 1950), of which conventionalism (strict adherence to conventional values), aggression and submission are the most important (Meloen, 1991). The subsyndromes explain why authoritarian people tend to look down on (contraidentify) and discriminate social or ethnic groups that are ‘different’. Authoritarianism is part of a broader cluster of cultural conservative attitudes, especially vivid within the lower social classes (Meloen and Middendorp, 1985; De Witte, 1990). Scheepers, Felling, and Peters (1992) argue that a sociological explanation for an authoritarian attitude lies within the need for compensation for political powerlessness, caused by unfavorable social circumstances.
Toni Toharudin; Johan H.L. Oud; Jaak B. Billiet; Henk Folmer. Measuring Authoritarianism with Different Sets of Items in a Longitudinal Study. Methods, Theories, and Empirical Applications in the Social Sciences 2012, 193 -201.
AMA StyleToni Toharudin, Johan H.L. Oud, Jaak B. Billiet, Henk Folmer. Measuring Authoritarianism with Different Sets of Items in a Longitudinal Study. Methods, Theories, and Empirical Applications in the Social Sciences. 2012; ():193-201.
Chicago/Turabian StyleToni Toharudin; Johan H.L. Oud; Jaak B. Billiet; Henk Folmer. 2012. "Measuring Authoritarianism with Different Sets of Items in a Longitudinal Study." Methods, Theories, and Empirical Applications in the Social Sciences , no. : 193-201.
Toni Toharudin; Johan H. L. Oud; Jaak B. Billiet. Assessing the relationships between Nationalism, Ethnocentrism, and Individualism in Flanders using Bergstrom's approximate discrete model. Statistica Neerlandica 2007, 62, 83 -103.
AMA StyleToni Toharudin, Johan H. L. Oud, Jaak B. Billiet. Assessing the relationships between Nationalism, Ethnocentrism, and Individualism in Flanders using Bergstrom's approximate discrete model. Statistica Neerlandica. 2007; 62 (1):83-103.
Chicago/Turabian StyleToni Toharudin; Johan H. L. Oud; Jaak B. Billiet. 2007. "Assessing the relationships between Nationalism, Ethnocentrism, and Individualism in Flanders using Bergstrom's approximate discrete model." Statistica Neerlandica 62, no. 1: 83-103.