One of information needed in weather forecast is air temperature. This value might change any time. Prediction of air temperature is very valuable for some communities and occasions. Therefore, high accuracy prediction is needed. Since the information about air temperature might vary over time, it is necessary to implement methods that can adapt to this situation. The use of neural network methods such as long short term memory (LSTM), nowadays, becomes popular in facing big data including unexpected fluctuation on the data. Thus, the model is used in this paper which provides long series data on air temperature. In addition, recently, Facebook announced an accurate method of forecasting, called Prophet model’s, for data which have trend, seasonality, holidays, missing data, not to mention outliers. Hence, the forecast of five-year daily air temperatures in Bandung on this paper is modeled by LSTM and Facebook Prophet. The result shows that, for minimum temperature, Prophet performs better on maximum air temperature while LSTM performs better on minimum air temperature. However, the difference on the value of RMSE is not too large significant.

Air quality conditions are now more severe in the Jakarta area that is among the world’s top eight worst cities according to the 2022 Air Quality Index (AQI) report. In particular, the data from the Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency (BMKG) of the Republic of Indonesia, the latest outcomes in air quality conditions in Jakarta and surrounding areas, says that PM2.5 concentrations have increased and peaked at 148μ g/m3 in 2022. While a classification system for this pollution is necessary and critical, the observation of PM2.5 concentrations measured through the BMKG Kemayoran station, Jakarta, turns out to be identified as an unbalanced data class. Thus, in this work, we perform boosting algorithm supervised learning to handle such an unbalanced classification toward PM2.5 concentration levels by observing meteorological patterns in Jakarta during 1 January 2015 to 7 July 2022. The boosting algorithms considered in this research include Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Categorical Boosting (CatBoost), and Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM). Our simulations have proven that boosting classification can significantly reduce bias in combination with variance reduction with unbalanced within-class coefficients, with the classification of PM2.5 class values: good 62%, moderate 34%, and unhealthy 59%, respectively.

Particulate matter forecasting is fundamental for early warning and controlling air pollution, especially PM _2.5 . The increase in this level of concentration will lead to a negative impact on public health. This study develops a hybrid model of CNN-LSTM and CONV-LSTM by combining a convolutional neural network (CNN) with an LSTM network to forecast PM _2.5 concentration for the next few hours in Kemayoran DKI Jakarta, which is known as a busy area. We discovered the advantages of CNN in effectively extracting features and LSTM in learning long-term historical data from PM _2.5 concentration time series data. The predictive model of CNN-LSTM is carried out in a different architecture where the CNN process is carried out first to become the input of LSTM. For CONV-LSTM, it is carried out in one architecture where the multiplication in the LSTM architecture is coupled with the convolution process. This research will explain how the method of developing hybrid CNN-LSTM and CONV-LSTM in predicting PM _2.5 concentrations. Based on metric evaluation, the two models are compared to find the best model. Both predictive models produce MAPE values that fall into the good enough category with values <20%. Results were obtained for CONV-LSTM with MAE worth 6.52, RMSE 8.55, and MAPE 16.39%. As a result, the CONV-LSTM model performs better than CNN-LSTM in nowcasting PM _2.5 .

COVID-19, as a global pandemic, has spread across Indonesia. Jakarta, as the capital of Indonesia, is the province with the most positive cases. The government has issued various guidelines, both at the central and regional levels. Since it began in 2021, the planned new measures, called ‘Pemberlakuan Pembatasan Kegiatan Masyarakat Darurat’, or PPKM emergency public activity restrictions, began with the possibility that the number of active cases might decrease. Accordingly, global vaccinations were also carried out, as they were in Indonesia. However, the first phase prioritized frontline health workers and high-risk elderly people. This study conducted a causal impact analysis to determine the effectiveness of PPKM in Jakarta and its vaccination program against the increase in daily new cases. Based on this test, PPKM showed a significant effect on the addition of daily new cases and recovered cases. Conversely, the vaccination program only had a significant impact on recovered cases. A forecast of the COVID-19 cases was conducted and indicated that the daily new cases showed a negative trend, although it fluctuated for the next 7 days, while death and recovered cases continued to increase. Hence, it can be said that the vaccination program has still not shown its effectiveness in decreasing the number of daily new cases while PPKM is quite effective in suppressing new cases.

In December 2021, the latest COVID-19 variant, Omicron, was confirmed in Indonesia. Unlike the Delta variant, the number of deaths in the Omicron type did not increase significantly and remained constant, even though the cases increased significantly. It is hoped that Indonesia will declare COVID-19 endemic. Jakarta is the capital of Indonesia and the first city where the new COVID-19 virus emerged. Therefore, we are trying to model COVID-19 cases in Jakarta and predict future cases to see if endemic conditions are identified. We applied Neural Network Auto-Regressive (NNAR) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) methods. It is found that the NNAR forecast better for positive confirmed cases with an R-squared 0.939 and the LSTM forecast better for cases of death with an R-squared 0.9337. The forecasting results for the next 7 days reveal that positive confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Jakarta will increase slightly. In addition, the death cases experienced a very small increase, only one new case. According to the results of this study, it can be concluded that COVID-19 in Jakarta will enter an endemic phase in Jakarta, with no substantial increase in cases and a low mortality rate.

Symbolic data analysis is an emerging field in statistics with great potential to become a standard inferential technique. This research introduces a new approach to image feature extraction using the empirical cumulative distribution function (ECDF) and distribution function of distribution values (DFDV) as symbolic data. The main objective is to reduce the dimension of huge pixel data by organizing them into more coherent pixel-intensity distributions. We propose a partitioning method with different breakpoints to capture pixel intensity variations effectively. This results in an ECDF representing the proportion of pixel intensities and a DFDV representing the probability distribution at specific points. The novelty of this approach lies in using ECDF and DFDV as symbolic features, thus summarizing the data and providing a more informative representation of the pixel value distribution, facilitating image classification analysis based on intensity distribution. The experimental results underscore the potential of this method in distinguishing image characteristics among existing image classes. Image features extracted using this approach promise image classification analysis with more informative image representations. In addition, theoretical insights into the properties of DFDV distribution functions are gained.