Local, regional, and global processes affect deforestation and land-use changes in the Brazilian Amazon. Characteristics are: direct conversions from forest to pasture; regional processes of indirect land-use change, described by the conversion of pastures to cropland, which increases the demand for pastures elsewhere; and teleconnections, fueled by the global demands for soybeans as animal fodder. We modeled land-use changes for two scenarios Trend and Sustainable Development for a hot spot of land-use change along the BR-163 highway in Mato Grosso and Pará, Brazil. We investigated the differences between a coupled modeling approach, which incorporates indirect land-use change processes, and a noncoupled land-use model. We coupled the regional-scale LandSHIFT model, defined for Mato Grosso and Pará, with a subregional model, alucR, covering a selected corridor along the BR-163. The results indicated distinct land-use scenario outcomes from the coupled modeling approach and the subregional model quantification. We found the highest deforestation estimates returned from the subregional quantification of the Trend scenario. This originated from the strong local dynamics of past deforestation and land-use changes. Land-use changes exceeded the demands estimated at regional scale. We observed the lowest deforestation estimates at the subregional quantification of the Sustainable Development story line. We highlight that model coupling increased the representation of scenario outcomes at fine resolution while providing consistency across scales. However, distinct local dynamics were explicitly captured at subregional scale. The scenario result pinpoints the importance of policies to aim at the cattle ranching sector, to increase land tenure registration and enforcement of environmental laws.

The viability of the climate pledges made by Brazil at the COP21 in Paris, 2015, heavily depends on the success of the country policies related to forest governance. Particularly, there are high expectations that the enforcement of the Brazilian Forest Code (BFC) will drive large-scale forest recovery and carbon mitigation. In this study, we quantified the potential role that ongoing forest regeneration may play in offsetting deficits from private properties with less vegetation cover than determined by the BFC, considering different law implementation settings. Focusing on the Amazon Biome, we overlaid property level data from a mandatory registry (≈ 250,000 properties) onto land cover maps to quantify on-site forest deficit offsets by ongoing forest recovery. Similarly, we estimated the share of regrowing forests in private properties potentially eligible for off-site deficit compensation (i.e. via market-based forest certificates trade). Regrowing forests could reduce, on-site, 3.2 Mha of forests deficits, decreasing non-compliance from private properties by 35%. Likewise, forest certificates availability increased by 3.4 Mha when we included regrowing forests in the calculations. This means an increase in the forest certificate offer-demand ratio from 0.9 to 2.0. On the one hand, trading certificates issued from recovering forests may represent a low-cost strategy for compliance with the BFC, a pathway for achieving restoration targets, and an additional source of income for landholders. To meet this potential, it is necessary to better conceptualize second-growth forests, advancing the poor definitions presented by the BFC, and offer an operational basis for their protection. On the other hand, including regrowing forests’ certificates in compensation schemes may further restrain the potential of the trading mechanism for conservation of unprotected old-growth forests and lead to positive net carbon emissions. We highlight that the BFC implementation must be carefully regulated to maximize synergies between compliance and forest resources conservation and enhancement.

In tropical areas, pioneer occupation fronts steer the rapid expansion of deforestation, contributing to carbon emissions. Up-to-date carbon emission estimates covering the long-term development of such frontiers depend on the availability of high spatial–temporal resolution data. In this paper, we provide a detailed assessment of carbon losses from deforestation and potential forest degradation from fragmentation for one expanding frontier in the Brazilian Amazon. We focused on one of the Amazonia’s hot-spots of forest loss, the BR-163 highway that connects the high productivity agricultural landscapes in Mato Grosso with the exporting harbors of the Amazon. We used multi-decadal (1984–2012) Landsat-based time series on forested and non-forested area in combination with a carbon book-keeping model. We show a 36% reduction in 1984s biomass carbon stocks, which led to the emission of 611.5 TgCO₂ between 1985 and 1998 (43.6 TgCO₂ year⁻¹) and 959.8 TgCO₂ over 1999–2012 (68.5 TgCO₂ year⁻¹). Overall, fragmentation-related carbon losses represented 1.88% of total emissions by 2012, with an increasing relevance since 2004. We compared the Brazilian Space Agency deforestation assessment (PRODES) with our data and found that small deforestation polygons not captured by PRODES had increasing importance on estimated deforestation carbon losses since 2000. The comparative analysis improved the understanding of data-source-related uncertainties on carbon estimates and indicated disagreement areas between datasets that could be subject of future research. Furthermore, spatially explicit, annual deforestation and emission estimates like the ones derived from this study are important for setting regional baselines for REDD+ or similar payment for ecosystem services frameworks.